The Hill Poll: 12 Freshman Democrat Held Districts Show Major GOP Gains
by Warner Todd HustonOn Wednesday The Hill reported on a new poll it has conducted of the 2010 midterms with initial focus on 12 districts held by freshmen Democrats and the news isn’t good for those incumbent Dems scrutinized. On the other hand, the poll seems to show that it isn’t pat that Republicans will necessarily run away with it all either.
On Wednesday The Hill reported that in 11 of the initial 12 races polled, Republicans are leading Democrat incumbents. In the 12th, the candidates are tied. While this may seem good for the GOP the downside is that none of the Republicans are polling over 50%.
However, a long held axiom states that an incumbent that can’t reach at lest 50% in the polls generally is in major trouble for re-election and if these polls show GOP leads in each case with not one of these incumbent Dems reaching the 50% mark, that says quite a lot about these midterms.
According to The Hill, the poll also shows that Obamacare is hurting Democrats. “A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year.”
To the question of repeal of Obamacare, 56% agreed with repeal and only 32% said no to repeal.
The Hill promised that this poll reveals, “insights previously held as guarded secrets by campaigns and party committees.”
Overall the poll shows that 45% of respondents say that if the election were being held today they’d vote for Republicans while 39% said they’d pull the lever for Democrats. Interestingly, female respondents, typically a Democrat stronghold, almost broke even between the two parties with 42% saying they’d vote Democrat and 41% going with the GOP.
Further it was found that the majority disapprove of Obama’s work as president. 55% disapprove while 42% approve. Congress fared worse with a disapproval rate of 76% with a paltry 20% approving.
To focus on only one race, the Illinois 11th (Obama’s home state), first-time candidate Republican Adam Kinzinger is leading incumbent Democrat Debbie Halvoson 49% to 31% with self-professed independents breaking at an even larger rate in favor of the Republican 53% to 24%. Even women are breaking in favor of Kinzinger and against the female Democrat 44% to 33%.
With less than a month to go, Kinzinger seems ready to beat the Democrat incumbent in deep blue Illinois with room to spare even as he might not run away with it.
The other races reflect similar results.
The poll includes a look at the following races:
- Arizona 1st District (46% R/39% D)
- Colorado 4th District (44% R, 41% D)
- Illinois 11th District (49% R, 31% D)
- Maryland 1st District (43% R, 40% D)
- Michigan 7th District (41% R, 41% D)
- Nevada 3rd District (47% R, 44% D)
- New Mexico 2nd District (46% R, 42% D)
- Ohio 15th District (47% R, 38% D)
- Ohio 16th District (42% R, 39% D)
- Pennsylvania 3rd District (49% R, 36% D)
- Virginia 2nd District (42% R, 36% D)
- Virginia 5th District (45% R, 44% D)
The early part of the poll is conducted in association with the American Natural Gas Alliance.
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80 Comments
I'm tired of talking and seeing my country get hijacked by imbeciles….. let's vote!
The Dems are in big trouble, and they know it. I hope the polls are right and it is a conservative near sweep next month.
Vote Conservative !
I've already been stocking up on food, drinks, and snacks for this historic evening.
It will be better than any movie could ever be.
The Party of Food Stamps, that never talked about jobs until this month isn't polling well–go figure.
I'd really love to see our nation shake of the blues. Liberty is the best anti-depressant.
Actually I expect them to be higher for conservatives. With the dems in trouble now, and the media on their side, it's obvious that they're downplaying the numbers so people will get out an vote a few times each per dead person, in hopes that they can walk away with a few seats.
My 80 yr old Irish Catholic Mother whom has always voted Dem is voting for Conservatives this Election,
Might be too busy stuffing their faces.
WOW…Beck just said our real debt is over $200 Freaking Trillion.
Just Damn !
I doubt they'll be talking about jobs after the September ABYSMAL job numbers came out.
They can't hate the war
They can't tout the economy
They won't go near HC
They can't talk about taxes
The can't talk about the environment
New Dem Slogan:
Well, shut mah mouff!
)))))
Kathy Dahlkemper(freshman democrat) is down 13% to Mike Kelly(Pa 3rd Dist) and I couldn't be happier.
We don't need a bunch of statistics to know what the voting mood of the country is right now. And the feeling that I get from a lot of people is betrayal by the Idiots In Charge who chose to waste a year on a major power grab, rather than deal with our economic realities.
This is the way that representation was origninally supposed to be like. The citizen farmer/businessman went to Washington for one term and then returned home to his business.
If the founding fathers had any idea how abusive terms would be, I am sure the Constitution would have had term limits incorporated in it.
These guys need to go and the long term libtard Dimocraps and RINOs need to go as well.
Yeah, but he also said that info came out of Harvard. And we know NOTHING trustworthy ever comes out of Harvard.
Well, at least the dems can still rely on the communist party vote.
You could be right. One thing we have learned over many years is not to trust the media.
News Flash!! Dems are going to find a way to steal this election. Just read it on Lucianne's site.
Of course, this is nothing new.
I know, but the figure they were throwing around before was 120 T. This number is most likely closer to the truth.
DNC Chairman Tim kaine just had a press conference. He intimated that the democrats have great plans for the future of this country, legislation that everyone will love, but you have to vote for them first before they'll tell you what it is.
Liberty isLiberals are the best anti-depressant. (FTFY)But Beck said it so it must be true.
According to a recent survey by the Brookings institute on the increasing poverty rate which should hit 15% in the next two years(all they need is some elbow grease and good work ethic though!)
Almost half of the nonprofit groups serving the suburban poor reported they had lost substantial GOVERNMENT or private-sector aid in the last year. Many of them were expecting additional cuts in 2011.
So much for your socialism myth. Yeah, don't let the facts hit you in the ass or anything…
Like I said you're just a right wing, kool-aid drinking, Breitbarted, sheep.
Turnout will make the difference here. As long as a conservative orgasm is achieved at the right time, it will be a good day. I think the left is running out of personal attack bullets as well.
Go Raiders!
In our house we always add 4% to the Republican's poll numbers. The media frequently underestimate conservative turnout.
Liberals are the cause of depression.
Like I said, you're an A$$HOLE….now go away TrueBlow.
Obama and the Democrats HAD a plan……. http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/10/voting-s...
You need to learn to say, CLOWARD and PIVEN !
Be sure to wear a helmet when you go outside. You might even consider having mommy tie a string to your belt loop, as not to get lost.
I live in IL-11, and I'm proudly going to vote for Adam Kinzinger.
Early voting starts in five days here. Then we wait three weeks for the results to be announced. Its going to be a LONG October.
I would believe him before I would believe any mind numbed Democrat.
What the hell are you babbling about? And what conceivably does it have to do with the article?
But, just to play with your bait: this administration has made no secret of its contempt for private, non-profit charitable groups.
Yup- the clowns are good for non-stop laffs.
Beck is late to the party- it's certainly not been a secret. The unfunded Social Security and Medicaid liabilities are a ticking nuclear time bomb.
That was just a little obama slam.
But on the serious side, that the number is $70, $120, or $200 Trillion, the only "logical" reason to allow this kind of debt to accumulate is as a setup to a takeover, a global restructuring. How do you collapse an entire global system? You create an artificial debt greater than the total accumulated wealth of the planet. Crash the system, then rebuild it as the global "utopia" of planetary socialism.
That'll be cool, huh?
Yup, just friggin great….
I understand how hard that must be for her. Most Catholics are Democrats, because it's bred into them in grammar school. Reaching out to help those less fortunate, here and abroad, should not have turned out to be socialism.
Tell Mom that todays Republican Constitutionalist is yesterday's Dem. She will feel better about it. Take care BryanF. Enjoy Nov 2!
Right and the Obama Admin chose to partner up with 11 Latin, mostly Communist Countries to sue his own Country, America. To me that shows clearly, Obama's intention to convert America to Communism. He meets the bar for Impeachment, imo.
Rush summed this election cycle up very simply last week…..If they have a D after their name, it's a Big HELL no on the ballot!
We in VA are hoping to spread our conservative sweeps nationwide!
The S.S. Democrat Party is sinking fast, and Obama is one heavy anchor, baby: http://gravelle.us/content/obama-anchor-baby
You’d think with all that stimulus money, General Motors might be able to build Obama and His party a life boat: http://www.dailyscoff.com/?p=2689
-jjg
Yep. BHO called for a One World Order at West Point this year. They are crashing the dollar and then we will see a global currency put into place.
It has only been a secret to the dimwits.
The November elections will send a loud message to Obama and other socialists that the American people have had enough of his dictatorial jargon. We will not be forced into being a socialist country. The lemming democrate politicians that backed him are heading straight off a cliff and no one is going to stop them.
"Leave them alone as they will destroy themselves!"
Yep. Gonna be a nail biter on this one. All of us in VA will have to call each other after the results. I'm a little concerned at how the left will react if we take back the House.
Do you have a link Rita?
One conversion at a time Bryan — that's excellent news!
Once we bring government to heel, we’ll need to spray some heavy duty parasite repellent all over Washington, maybe it should be called “repealant?” And heavy doses of (jobs) parasite cleanse to rid the body politic of the parasites already latched on. It’s gonna be ugly. You can just hear all the scumbags in unison scream, “I ain’t gonna work!” The answer, “Oh yes you will!”
Then as a nation we can help the truly needy, the old, the infirmed, the broken…not the stupid, and lazy.
I know a cop that lives a few houses from me. I asked him the same thing,….. is there anything to be concerned about?
He said any problems at all caused by gangs or any group, are going to jail and they're prepared.
And of course I got the usual lecture…." if you see or hear anything call him".
Only one problem, Obama won't listen. For 20 months he has shown a clear disregard for any opinion but his own. I predict the left on Nov. 4 will throw a temper tantrum that will put 3 and 4 year olds to shame. Heck in my own office we have a few token libs ( for entertainment purposes I am told). Six months ago they would not talk politics with me, they would literally leave the office. Now they are attacking me. Its fun, I just ask them " do you really believe raising your voice makes your argument more valid?" " Do you really want to go here? If you do I have no problem taking you ttoschool but you must promise no raising your voice and no crying and sobbing. OK?"
Hadit,
Correct. That's why it is critical that we gain enough seats in BOTH houses to OVERRIDE his inevitable vetoes of everything we try to do over the next two years to fix this mess. We MUST be able and prepared to quash or circumvent the inevitable obstructionist games pelosi and obama come up between now and 2012.
Two terms for Obama – one in the White House and one in prison.
I agree, "liberty" and "liberals" (the modern, corrupted leftist meaning of the word) are mutually exclusive.
Pelosi tried that with the health care "reform" act – look how well that worked out. Most Americans won't buy a "pig in a poke" come November.
I live in the district adjacent to yours – the one represented by Jesse Jackson, Jr. While his opponent, Isaac Hayes (yes, you heard right) is behind in the polls, his chances have improved when word got out about Congressman Jackson's dalliance with a Washington, D.C., cocktail waitress. I never cared for Debbie Halvorson when she was in the Illinois state senate – reminded me of Reese Witherspoon's character, in the movie, "Election".
"You’d think with all that stimulus money, General Motors might be able to build Obama and His party a life boat…" – they did, but the problems are, the motor won't start and the hull seams leak.
Here here! I kills me that people who play by all the rules, pay our taxes, contribute to the system and the "safety net" is not designed for us. My neighbor is a great example, hardest working decent people you will ever meet, not rocket scientist but honest and loaded with integrity. This past winter he was only getting part time hours at his full time job, then he was laid off. He being honest to his core had put off knee surgery, which after being laid off then became next to impossible, took him six months, he just had the surgery two weeks ago. In the meantime he is way behind on his mortgage and foreclosure is imminent. Of course with his integrity comes pride and he confided his situation with me late in the game, but I am trying to help them get approved for a mortgage adjustment. I hope it is in time as I don't want to break in new neighbors. But really, they did not buy a home beyond their means, they were simply run over by a bus, the economy. In the middle of all of this his brother was diagnosed with terminal cancer. All they need is some short term help to get back on their feet and they will again succeed in life maybe a little bit wiser yet they have encountered roadblock after roadblock. Yet here in MA Auntie Zuntunie that piece of shit gets free everything and tells us we owe here citizenship. It is crap like this that is making me look for other options. Heck if Tax it all Deval is re-elected my home is for sale at brek even on Nov. 3 and I am not even sure I want to stay in this country sometimes. Of course where woud I go? I have thought about a more temperate climate where I can buy in a rural setting and just get by. I am a very handy person so I can always find some work. I wonder if I just gave up all the "stuff" and just got by would my quality od life soar? The system is broken and we need to fix it yesterday.
"you're just a right wing, kool-aid drinking, Breitbarted, sheep."
And you're just a big weewee head.
There. Now we're speaking on the same level.
I saw that. Do you remember the reaction of the cadets? LOL another failure of the anointed one….
Be sure to vote and help to get out the vote. We need 100% of all repubs and Independents to squelch the dismantling of our nation. 2 Nov is too important to rely on someone else to carry the vote. We need each and everyone of us to pull the handle to stop BO and his trolls. Once our dissatisfaction with the current regime is shown at the polls, we must watch the lame duck session carefully. There the angry jackasses will vent their ire to pass destructive legislation to further imperial our nation and citizenry.
Also be sure to carry your video cams to capture any shenanigans at the polls by the progs. We have just begun to fight.
http://www.lucianne.com
TexasStomp, I really must have woken on the wrong side of the bed this morning so please don't take this personally, what you are suggesting just creates a stalemate for two more years. They have already dang near destryed the economy and Obama seems to have taken the Executive Order and recess appointments to the most perverse and unconstitutional level ever imagined. We need to defund, investigate every department, eliminate waste fraud and abuse, eliminate overlaping mandates, clean it out from bottom to top.
Drug test for all entitlements, congressman ethics violations zero tolerance your gone, no pension for you. Government employee who has not filled your taxes bye bye no job for you. Cut costs by privatizing everything possible. Post Office sell it, or give it away to stop the bleeding but no more congressional oversite. GM sell it and be done with it, Fannie and Freddie close them down and the bleeding stops. Free markets correct themselves by eating the failures. True lesons are learned. Investigate all earmarks and pork spending really drill down. UN, just quit, it is anti american to is core, and we fund it by over a third. Global warming, no more tax payer money to research it is all a fraud. My favorite put resposibility on elected officials, if you legislate some crap you may be sued for consequences, I'm thinking Obamacare right now.
I could go on and on and you all could chime in but in essence the entire government is so far over reaching, inefficient and corrupt we need to hit the reset button. Wind it down, and make a sustainable future. Every day we go to work to provide for our families, pay our taxes etc and Iwonder will the dollar I earn today have any value tomorrow, next week month year? A child can see this path won't work forever, when do we begin to fix it? Two more years of stalemate might be two too many.
That story can be told as long as man has been on the earth, it’s just on steroids in the time of Barry. I know several people who have taken care of themselves for decades, that have burned through their savings, equity, and are having to reinvent themselves in their ‘50s and ‘60s. Most of these peoples children, have college degrees, bright eyed, ambitious, with tough prospects. But. Make no mistake brother, this is the plan of liberal democrats for decades. 11/2/10 is the beginning, perhaps enforcing our borders and send 10 to 20 million Aunt Zuntunie’s wherever. I wonder what that would do for employment?
Hadit….. Loved your whole line, but please, please, please don't use that s word.
The far LEFT OWNS it and imo we would do well to stay as far as possible from it.
SUSTAINABLE is TOXIC! ;-D
REMEMBER NOVEMBER!
.
I keep thinking that Isaac Hayes should be using the theme from Shaft as his campaign theme song.
In truth, I just found out a couple of weeks ago we were in IL-11, since we just moved here. I thought we were still in IL-13. There is NO support for Halvorson in my neighbrhood
onecornpone you are of course correct with the s word. Again just woke up mean and ornery today. I suspect this will probably be a trend for a few weeks (months?)as I feel all is at stake and I really don't trust the Repubs to "git er done". Lets not forget the lame duck session either. At least the Senate is sufficiently secure. I need to see a few socialists completly torn up and jailed next year.
Nagging – if all else fails, try saying it LOUDER.
I guess you are correct StanH. The human misery we are seeing is the hardest part for me. If you look at your average liberal they really are not bad people. They are usually quite intelligent. They just somewhere in life just drank the koolaid and became comfortable blindly following the path never questioning the results. The average libs biggest fault lies in their inability to add it all up followed by their consistency. Lets take their view on AGW with oil as the problem. They blindly with great enthusiasm spout the talking points and push to eliminate all petroleum from our lives heck yesterday if they could pull it off. Of course they don't stop driving, wearing synthetic clothing, bathing, using electricity, wearing cosmetics, you get the idea. No they will stop when we have to stop not a minute sooner. They never look at the middle of a problem they just see the beginning, oil bad heat up planet, and skip to the end, rainbows and unicorn dropping no more oil the world is now perfect thanks to me!. So they push alternative energy solutions; solar, wind (look into Cape Wind which is in my backyard) which can't hope to replace petroleum and never think the middle of the problem. If we stop using oil today we will be virtually in the stone age again. These same people who advocate social justice and equality never factor in past history (socialism has never worked anywhere) and they really don't consider what kind of change they wil have to live with if they succeed. They will be the loudest bitches if we fall down and they win. Maybe I shoud say blow it all up you idiot socialists, I'm coming to your house armed for your food first! Gee I guess I found a positive to living in MA surrounded by libs! Who will write up my nobel lauriate application for me?
Exactly right. In good times annual revenues from taxes is about $2 trillion. Anyone try to service debt that is 100 times annual income? We are toast.
I am in VA 5th district and Periellos(D) is trying every trick in the book. He has voted 100% with pelosi until the last vote cause he knows he needed to look like he was listening to the people, and also is advertising on Fox news website without saying he is D. I know it is his right but another sign that he is a phony crappy politician and will do any trick to fake the people out of who he is. Please district 5 in VA dump Periellos!
It’s the “Third Way.” A mix of Free Market and communism/socialism, these ‘60s chuckle heads believe in their infinite wisdom they can make socialism work. Un-tempered intelligence with zero experience, results in unwise liberal pretzel logic. This is how we get an inexperienced fool as president.
Ha, ha, mean and ornery is my normal state, so I'm just happy to have company in my misery.
You're right we can't trust the blue-haired, blue-blood Repub's at all. The lame duck gives me
nightmares as well. "…completely torn up and jailed"… mm mm mm……………
Would be pure manna from Heaven!
.
West of Mokena, but that's as much as I'll admit to on an open forum filled with people I don't know.
I have friends who live in Mokena just off the expressway, and they tell me their neighborhood is thick with Kinzinger support.
The only plans Obama and the Democrats have is to complete their Fundamental Transformation of America into Communism.
The Dems are desperate and will pull a Blitz if they can.
I don't think that Texas Stomp meant to stop progress at all. I think Texas Stomp means to get the same things accomplished that you're listing. We still have to control obama and the socialistic Dems, and their obsession with installing communism in America. They ARE out of control, and need to be checked or Impeached or brought before a Judge.
Obama has already proven himself to be a traitor in broad daylight. Pelosi and Reid have passed socialist Legislation. I agree with Texas Stomp that we do have to control the Democrats spending, taxing, etc.but that doesn't mean that we don't go forward with our agenda. You may have misunderstood.
You both seem to want the same things, and me too. Your list is filled with good suggestions. Texas Stomp is a real, and active Patriot! We're all in agreement as far as I can see.
Liberals should soon be extinct in America, and hopefully Obama will be Impeached.
Liberal socialists should all move to Cuba. Castro needs more communists.
I did not mean to impune anyone at all. I guess I am just really frustrated. There seems to be so many serious conversations we as a nation need to engage. The progressive agenda is creating stress for all of us and the MS Media cover up is counter productive. I have been awakened by Obama and it is strange that much of the country is seemingly oblivious to the destruction. I am with the team here and I am glad sites like this one exist. Really we have come a long way but we still have a long tough road ahead. My apologies if toes were stepped on.
Here's what the Dems are doing! Illinois passed a Law to allow Early Voting by placing REGISTRATION BOOTHS on the State's NINE Public University Campuses! This is typical Democrat Community Organizing. Also Obama is always begging specific voters to vote for Dems, like 'young people, black people, Latino's, etc. He doesn't hide his racism.
So now if we can do the same thing for Republicans on College Campuses across America, we'd be getting somewhere.
Also we need to get copies of "The Pledge to America" onto those 9 Campuses so that our Constitutionalist Republican College Students can use them as a guideline when the aggressive socialist Obama Zombi students attack them.
GOP, can you get those "Pledge" booklets out to those 9 Campuses PLEASE?!
Also, where are the laws in other States for setting up Early Voting Registration booths on Campuses. I hope our Young Republicans get there and use "the Pledge to America" as a guideline for fiscal responsibility, and Constitutional Rights. I know that we need to add earmarks, and maybe Term Limits, but for the College Students "The Pledge to America" is a great resource!
You didn't, no problem. You are the 6th person today that mentioned the frustration and stress that this Administration is causing U.S.
It is absolutely heartbreaking to see what this Radical socialist agenda has done to such good American people.
The stress that the Obama Administration has put on US is despicable. We were blindsided. We had no idea that they were socialists.
Anyway we will hang on for a few more weeks. Get some sleep, and take some vitamins and try to balance that with our forward march to fight this toxic Administration. We all feel the same here. Ready to snap. Here's some good news though. There are actions and plans ready to go that will give us all great relief. That's all I can say right now. Take care Haditwgov! See you tomorrow.
Love that!
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