The Top 5 Lessons of the November 2009 Election
by Thomas Del BeccaroThe 2009 elections have come and gone. New Jersey elected a Republican governor. That is more of a surprise than the fact that Virginia now has a Republican governor (for the first time in 8 years) and less of a surprise than the Democrats winning House seats in New York and in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Mixed results you say? If so, is there anything to be learned from these elections? The answer is no, because we should have learned these lessons already. In case they have been forgotten, however, here they are:
5. Off year Elections Are Hard on the President’s Party. The President’s party loses 20 seats, on average, in the House in the mid-term elections. When President’s approval rating is below 50%, that number doubles. So it can be of little surprise that voters dealt the Democrats losses this November.
4. Deficits Worry Voters. Ross Perot made a 3rd party career out one issue back in the 1990’s – deficits. Polls show deficits worry voters to this day and weighed on the minds of these voters. As the former Democrat Governor of Virginia Widler said: “This is no time for the spending that they’re doing.”
3. The Number One Issue In Virtually Every Election is the Prosperity issue. Long before James Carville said it was “the economy stupid,” the state of people’s fortunes was the number one determinant of their vote. Hoover didn’t lose to Roosevelt over their looks – it was the state of the economy. In this case, the “in-party” was subject to a bit of a backlash because they are the party in power during bad economic times.
2. Higher Taxes Really Bother Voters. Taxes remain an enduring issue – from the original Tea Party to today’s. New Jersey imposes the highest tax burden in the Nation on its citizens and Democrat Gov. Corzine held out the threat of more. He lost. The Democrat candidate for Governor in Virginia waffled on new taxes. He lost. Heck, even the voters of Higley Unified School District in Arizona turned down the continuation of a school parcel tax estimated to be only $59.50 per household. Oh, and Nancy Pelosi offered a bill right before the election featuring higher taxes - not to mention the impending threat of the same from Obama.
So with those time-honored factors working against the Democrats, why were the results just mixed?
Because of the #1 lesson.
1. Without A Clear Agenda – Republican Gains Are Limited. Ask yourself how many times the Republicans have taken the Congress WITHOUT A CLEAR AGENDA during the 60s, 70s, 80S, 90s and 00s? Of course, the answer is not once. Keep in mind, during that time, the Democrats had some really bad or troubled Presidents, i.e. Lyndon Johnson refused to stick out a re-election run and don’t forget a peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter. The Republicans even had a great President, Ronald Reagan and didn’t take back the House and the Senate.
Why is that? Because Republican voters are far more finicky than Democrat voters. Democrats will vote for (D) by the name of a candidate with far more regularity then Republicans will do for a simple (R). Quite plainly, Republicans demand more of their candidates.
In 1994, that demand was answered with the Contract with America, i.e. a clear agenda standing in sharp contrast to where the incumbent President and his party were taking the country.
In 2010, because of the poor policies of the Obama Administration since it took over, unemployment will be above 10% and the deficit could well be in the $2 trillion range. The conditions for Democrat candidates will not be good. No doubt – Republicans will pick up seats.
By clearly standing for something, they can do more than that. They can lead the nation and take back the Congress.
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53 Comments
Interesting article, on why the Tea Partiers can't win.
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/1654...
"At best, we’d have to call it a partial victory for the Tea Party – 912 – town hall movement, which means we will refer to it as a “shot across the bow” or “sending a message” to DC elites… again!
Tea partiers can’t win because they won’t unite. WE NEED a GAME CHANGER!"
Whether one agrees, or disagrees with the article, it is thought provoking.
We need to change the attitude in Washington away from the traditional DEALS and get our representatives sticking to IDEALS. When you have a person who says what they believe and votes in accordance with those beliefs we get consistency. It is when you have those people like McCain and Graham who look to compromise that the lines get fuzzy. I would rather keep my integrity and lose in a fair election than to compromise and get the confused result. Let's try a new direction, let's give it a new name, let's call it INTEGRITY.
BTW: Gingrich had his mea culpa moment on Hannity last night. We may want to keep him around a bit longer but keep an eye on him.
The Tea Partiers won in this election — Establishment vs. Tea Party. The Tea Party will win in 2010, also.
i don't care what party it is.. i want the deficits reduced and the debts paid…. but, everyone should be warned- we're going to feel the pain at some point. we either take the pain now, or we take the pain later. but you can be sure, its going to happen.
I saw Newt on Hannity, with his mea culpa. Sorry, he didn't close the deal with me. Sure, he mouthed the words, and said them on camera. Was he sincere? I personally believe he was sincere that his bet on the wrong race hoss with Dede was a mistake. But it was only a mistake because she showed her true colors. Not a mistake in judgement on his part. Quite frankly, we don't need someone who makes mistakes with people, in judging their character.
Look at the mistake We have now, when a year ago, half the populace made a mistake in judging Obamas character.
This is just my personal opinion, but Newt needs to shut up, and leave.
Speaking of Newt, and FOX, I wonder exactly how much FOX pays Newt to appear and contribute? I am sure he does not do it for free, or out of the goodness of his heart………..
There’s a great ready-made agenda just waiting for the GOP to seize it. Google the term “Bill of Federalism” and you’ll find something concrete that conservatives & libertarians can all support.
We can unite, we have a party, it is the Republican party. We need to keep our message simple and broad: Smaller government, Lower Taxes, Better more effective oversight, STOP SPENDING SO MUCH MONEY. We only need to refresh the memories of those who represent that party and vote according to those ideals. We may not win every election but we will know where we stand. Consistency, Honesty, Integrity. We do not need to agree on every social issue so long as they say what they mean and mean what they say.
Yes, we will.
Just wait until unemployment hits 15% and interest is 20%.
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Tokyo-Newt should not be trusted, this guy jumped into bed with Nancy P and every other left wing lune that he thought my help him make a buck
Tokyo-News principles relvove around what Tokyo-Newt thinks is good for himself on any give day.
Scott_Z must be making his rounds of KOS and Huff-Po to get his daily talking points and marching orders. Let's try to humor the poor guy. He probably drew the short straw and has to do this.
The last point the author makes seems to be the problem with the GOP, the dont have a short term action plan, or a long term set of principles.
They have tried to be everything to everyone and in the process have only succeeded in everyone having lost interest.
You are right.
Congressman Grayson should investigate Newtered Newt. He appears to have turned into a K Street Whore. Newt is no different than Lindsey Graham. Lindsey supports Cap n Trade, but only when he is for it; yet sometimes he does not support it, but that is when he is against it.
It sounds like they all went to the John Kerry school of doublespeak.
Actually, I quit being interested in responding to those type clowns. They get paid to be here, and do nothing but create a distraction. That is their sole purpose in life. Little amebas swimming upstream in the river of life.
I remember seeing that when it was printed in the WSJ. It could be a start.
There needs to be an 11th. item: Withdrawl from the UN.
hey cowboy,
i follow your comments because because i like the way you are concise and to the point
for the most part.
i agree with you that we must unite and the TRUE conservitivesneed to set the republicans
back on the path working for the people
Bill of Federalism has some great issues but opening the constitution to be changed may not be the best thing to do right now. Although as a platform of issues it is a great starting point.
Lesson #6. Gerrymandered districts have made California a one-party state, controlled by Democrats.
Real hope and change will not come for California until this fundamental corruption is rooted out. The state may have to go bankrupt before that time can come.
Social comments and analytics for this post…
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#tcot…
it didnt close the deal with me also but i was expecting him to be on hannity
and i also expected hannity to NOT ASK any hard questions on the issue
although i understand the point Newt made of backing the party, i want to see
him back the conservitisim of the party
"1. Without A Clear Agenda – Republican Gains Are Limited."
Both the Republican and Democratic Parties are infested with left wing globalists that have the same goals. The only difference between the two parties is how fast their plans for the destruction of this country are carried out. They continue to pretend that they hold different world views and deceive voters into thinking that they have a choice.
The Republican Party in its current condition does not offer an alternative to the liberal agenda of the other party and if something is not done to change this, the Republican Party is history. No one in this country wants a Democrat “Lite” Party. A new party based on conservative principles will naturally emerge.
Scott was over at the thread where the General wrote about Afghanistan. Scott was poting to the General. I think he is still there,awaiting a response…………….
Everyone get a card and mail it to him. Give him congrats but also inform him why he was elected…
I think the main lesson is that when parties fail, ENTER:
THE AMERICAN REGENT
http://naturalfake.wordpress.com/2009/11/04/the-a...
Bill, regarding your comment about parties being infested with left wing globalists, here is some interesting info. I posted this about six weeks ago, It is informative:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeMZGGQ0ERk&fe...
The majority of Americans, as demonstrated by the recent Tea Party gatherings, want to get back to the basics, strict interpretation of the Constitution, limited government, low taxes, personal freedom, etc. The Republican Party now has the opportunity to get back to basics and embrace these principles that our country was founded on. They must abandon this cancerous “big tent” idea which encourages the inclusion of Trojan horse candidates such as the radical leftist Dede Scozzafava. This was a disgraceful choice that perfectly illustrates the moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party.
The GOP won't have a defined plan as long as Michael Steele is in charge. His idea of a "big tent" precludes a set of principles that might exclude somebody. He is the opposite of 1994 Newt Gingrich, a weasel where a leader is needed. True, an agenda is sorely needed and it is easily constructed from the tea party signs and sites. But we also need a leader to adopt and articulate it.
Isn't it interesting how nacy pelosi can say we didn't lose! She's mentally ill and we need to put her in a home. One with bars preferrably for her crimes against this nation. Why is it that when it a republican that is in the news they say Republican so and so was in …. but when its a democrat the say bill howe was in …… could it be when its a democrat in the news it because of corruption charges or out lies to the public to further a politcal cause that will get them money. The media just neds to shut up and go home. If a non-news organization like fox news is the only source for news that find with me. i haven't found any oitem i fact checked that was wrong but the media's facts especially about Obama and democrats is almost always wrong. Spun to look good and to protect theri power or to make a republican look bad. Fire them all and watch fox. CHristy will make a good governor comparted to Corzine. Is anyone going to investigate Corzine and his crew of Mifia goons? I would if I lived in NJ. Wake Up America! watch Christy as well because power corrupts and unless you help him stay straight by watching he'll stray as well.
You are absolutely correct. Michael Steele is a true Trojan.
This is something that has been troubling me. How to bring the movement under one umbrella, so to speak. Imo, it is spread too thin. There are 100s, if not 1000s of groups, all 'competing' for members. Competing in quotes because it is not a purposeful competition, just a result of all the individuals / organizations creating their own mission.
There are new calls to action multiple times a day. We don't have the time to answer each and every one, hence the thin crowds at many events or weak results of any particular action call.
Visit many Tea Party or 912 sites, there are dozens, perhaps hundreds of links to other small groups. It seems to me that if we don't find a way to bring us all together, the voices will continue to just speak over each other? Or perhaps the cream will naturally rise to the top and take the lead? But do we have the time to wait for this process?
With the opposition throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks – each trying to lend a voice, energy and skills to fight on so many fronts, if we do not organize the troops, we will lose crucial battles.
continued..
cont.
Health care, cap and trade, amnesty, spending, czars, congressional corruption, government takeovers, acorn / seiu, fairness doctrine, 1st amendment & 2nd amendment challenges, deficit / debt, Copenhagen Climate Treaty, Media Malpractice…..all just off of the top of my head – all require immediate action on our parts.
Somehow we need to create a team organizational structure of some sort, in order to bring the voices and actions on each issue to a level that cannot be ignored.
Wow your article is SO partisan. A republican writer putting it all in republican perspective and with Republican wishful thinking and totally skewed view of the results. Democrats won many of the races in 2009. Just to be truthful.
Absolutely. I concur.
We need one galvanizing moment; we need a game changer, a rallying cry.
9/11 was such a moment, just as Pearl Harbor was, and the Alamo before that for Texans. We will just keep drifting, until the right opportunity manifests itself. In the interim, we must remain vigilant and be on the alert for that one opportunity.
If you want non partisan, there is always the Huffington Post, the Daily kooks, or moveoff.org.
"Republicans demand more of their candidates"
—
I agree. I never understood how the same party can appeal to poor rednekkks and rich, greedy bastards. It's quite a stretch, ya know.
Newt needs to earn his place back. He screwed up, and he knows it, but he sure as hell doesn't get to just walk back in.
Newt — ACTIONS speak far louder than words.
If you want the Republicans to be conservative, take control of the party. Take control of your local central committees so NY-23 doesn't repeat itself…
Big tent.
All encompassing.
Everyone from those who ride in limo's, to the valets who park them.
How does the Republican base "recall" him ?
WE THE PEOPLE won this election. Incumbents lost all over the place.
You forgot to also mention that gas prices will probably skyrocket again.
I think we have more to deal with. We need to organize all Patriots no matter what party because eventually it will be " Them against Us" and I'm using the word "them" in a larger term. Getting the Republicans organized might be step one so we can disarm the liberal Congress. Getting rid of the UN is absolutely necessary for this country to survive otherwise we are in huge trouble. (cont. below)
chuckle….or get the news from a real journalist like Jon Stewart
For two years I have been following a story about the Denver Airport. Yes, it sounds conspiratorial and rather kooky but if y'all remember that Denver was annointed the new Western Capitol of the United States when Obama took office. If you have time to read this, keep an open mind and connect all the dots from the proposed papers Obama will sign on December the 7th to his seat in the UN. Two years ago I was skeptical about a lot of things. Today I see things already happening that people only laughed at.
The conclusion will have to be yours. Now mind you, I was extremely skeptical when I read the second half of the article because I am a realist but the first half has merit. There are things the government is doing we will never know about and I do believe the globalists are plotting to take over this country.
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/branton/esp_dul...
It's possible that Scott_Z and anotherstupidredneck take turns trying to spread their special brand of influence. Who was that guy from the NEA who resigned? Maybe he was reassigned to BG. Or it could be Buffy herself!
Many of the left's followers are either totally "in the tank" and have been completely indoctrinated, or they're too STOOPID, as in uneducated.
The Republicans need another Lee Atwater-type pit bull who's not afraid to go after Dems. The party hasn't been the same since he died much too young.
I don't agree. Not that a pit-bull is a bad idea, but why is it that people think we need a shepherd to all flock behind? These people work for us. Take control of central committees and therefore the party itself. Interview candidates, pick the right one, or reject them ALL and go find another.
Quit being wimps, expecting everything to just happen, and another Atwater/Reagan/whoever to land in our laps. Go SEEK OUT the candidate, or candidates to deliver us from the socialist nightmare…
I look forward to them trying. I need good fertilizer for my crops…
Well he's pushing something called 'Freedom Force' which I've no idea what that is. United well todays turnout at the Capitol was united and it was arranged by Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) and it was short notice as it wasn't even mentioned til last Friday night on Sean's show on Fox News. My main point is that the T party isn't dead by a long shot. As this year progresses things will not improve either and the reason is this administration is pretty dead set in their plan which will further destroy our American Way IMHO!!! It's called narcissism which means 'can do no wrong'.
The Conservative Edge
Crazy Congressman Grayson and Newtered Newt both need to be removed from proximity of the levers of power….along with 1000's of other Public Service/Politico types.
I agree with Twinespc post above. Republican's have a wide base of supporters, and it can be difficult being a Republican in today's political atmosphere.
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