The retirement of Evan Bayh is the latest heralding of difficult 2010 election year for the Democrats. It is also a symptom of Obama’s mid 40s approval rating. Smart Democrats know that the average midterm election year losses for the President’s party, when his approval rating is below 50%, is 41 seats in the House. Three Presidents in the modern era suffered such a fate – Johnson, Ford and Bill Clinton. Of those three, only Clinton went on to win a second term. While it is likely Obama will suffer huge mid-term losses, it is more than unlikely that he will enjoy Clinton’s revival.

Clinton suffered the loss of 54 House seats in his first midterm election, despite a growing economy, because he broke his middle class tax cut promise – and the Republicans were smart enough to unanimously oppose that and run on the Contract With America. Despite the loss of the House for the first time in 40 years, Clinton won reelection.
Clinton was able to win reelection in part because Bob Dole was not an effective candidate for the Republicans on the tax issue. Clinton also famously triangulated in 1995 and 1996 with the help of longtime strategist Dick Morris. Dropping ideology for practicality, in 1995 and 1996, Clinton pushed a national campaign to prevent teen pregnancy, issued an order clarifying the rights of religious expression in schools, supported uniforms for public schools, banned human cloning, signed Megan’s law and welfare reform to name a few less than ideological triangulations. Even before that, Clinton incurred the wrath of unions by pushing the ratification of NAFTA.
Of course, as the Governor of a swing state, Bill Clinton leaned an early lesson in pragmatism after he was defeated in his bid for a second term. After apologizing for the policies that led to his reelection defeat, he regained the governorship and went on to enact mandatory competency testing for teachers and granted tax breaks to businesses – again with triangulating guru Dick Morris by his side.
(more…)