COLUMBIA, S.C. – It seems that most states are looking to reform their K-12 public education system, either out of necessity – lack of money, low student achievement – or on the principle that families should have the right to choose their child’s education.

South Carolina is no different. During the current legislative session, state lawmakers are expected to consider a number of education reforms, including the possibility of increasing the number of charter schools in the state, linking teacher pay to student learning, and giving principals the power to fire ineffective teachers.

What distinguishes the Palmetto State’s K-12 reform debate from all the others is that it’s being led by an outspoken, retired Army brigadier general and former college president who is eager to take on the “liberal education establishment.”

State Superintendent of Education Mick Zais, a Republican, won election in 2010 by a huge margin of 108,000 votes. He has been in office for just over a year, but he has rankled lawmakers of both political parties by refusing to accept federal education dollars from President Obama’s Race to the Top initiative that gives states money in exchange for approved school reforms.

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Romney greets a voter in Maine

Mitt Romney has now decisively won (or statically tied) in four states that went for Obama in 2008: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada. He will assuredly win in Colorado and Arizona–two other parts of the Mormon corridor–and in Michigan, where he is a favored son.

And yet all but Arizona (which John McCain, a carpet bagger, barely held) went to Barack Obama in 2008. What does this mean?  For Republican primaries, this is very odd. No presidential candidate in American history has ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina.

In Nevada, Romney won among nearly every group he was expected to (only 9 percent of Mormons voted against him) and did nicely among groups he wasn’t expected to (the Tea Partiers and evangelicals). It may well be that the evangelicals and Tea Parties that voted against him in Iowa and South Carolina were an aberration.

His challenge, though, will be to win in a red state and he hasn’t done it and the emerging narrative of the 2012 GOP race is this: Will Romney win 1144 delegates before the convention in Tampa or will he have to fight it out at the convention?

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Other than in South Carolina, 2012 GOP Primary turnout has been somewhat flat, or below that of 2008. Up +3 in Iowa and +6 in New Hampshire, it jumped to +35 in South Carolina but dropped to -14 in Florida. It’s possible that the last minute surge by Gingrich and his debate performances brought some added excitement to the race, turning out voters in South Carolina.

South Carolina, of course, was the strongest state for Newt Gingrich. In contrast, turnout among Republican identifiers was down for Mr. Romney’s two victories so far, as well as for his near-win in Iowa.

While it’s possible to argue that Romney’s negative advertising in Florida lowered turnout, along with the lack of a special real estate-related initiative – one was on the ballot in 2008 – a closer look at the numbers still points to a problem, especially for for Romney.

In both South Carolina and Florida, district-level turnout was more likely to trend up in districts that went to Newt, and flat, or down in ones that went for Romney. Once one looks at party identification, the trend gets even worse.

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In polls taken after Newt Gingrich’s massive victory in South Carolina , the former speaker has seen his numbers skyrocket, both nationally and in the next primary state, Florida. In the Sunshine State, Gingrich holds a commanding lead over Romney in the Real Clear Politics polling average, 37.7% to 30.3% respectively. In just one week, Romney’s massive lead was destroyed, he fell 10.2% in six days.

Many analysts and pundits believe that Florida could be the firewall, where the final nominee will emerge victorious. Much like how California was to the Republican primary in 2008; where Romney lost to McCain 42.2% to 34.6%, causing Romney to drop out days later. If Romney can not win Florida this time around, does he still have a chance to be the nominee?

Currently, Romney is blessed by Gingrich’s own inefficiency more than anything else. Gingrich, through no fault of anyone besides his own campaigns, is not on the ballot in four states: Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Illinois as well as the District of Columbia. In total, Gingrich can not compete for 255 of the parties delegates, which is 11% of all the delegates the candidates are of vying for as well as 22% of the total needed in order to become the nominee. So if Romney can beat Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, which he is likely to do, he would automatically be a quarter of the way there to obtain enough delegates and secure the nomination.

Romney also has a security blanket in three very important states: Michigan, Massachusetts, and Utah. These were the only non-caucus states Romney won in 2008 and is expected to win again fairly easily. Obviously, he was the former Governor of Massachusetts. Romney is a Mormon and according to his tax records has given heavily to their church. Mormons comprises nearly 60% of Utah‘s population and a greater percentage of the Utah Republican Party. Michigan was the state his father, George Romney, was Governor from 1963 to 1969.

Those three states contain 111 delegates, and most of which will be expected to go to Mitt Romney.

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As Newt Gingrich’s victory in the South Carolina primary upended all previously held notions surrounding the unfolding GOP primary race, a common and vocal narrative has become increasingly prevalent; namely, that while he excites the Republican base, Gingrich is an unelectable, personally unlikable candidate that will be trounced in the general election.

This notion is utterly false.

While it is certainly accurate that any of the four remaining candidates for the Republican nomination will provide a stark, and compelling, contrast to the failed policies of the Obama administration, it is Newt Gingrich who has of late tapped into a visceral chord of discontent that permeates throughout much of the nation.

And, contrary to the narrative promoting Gingrich’s un-electability, the anger and discontent felt throughout the nation is not relegated to the conservative base of the Republican party. Nearly every political demographic in the nation, left, right, and middle, is frustrated with the Obama administration’s failure to improve the economic health and overall condition of the country.

Right direction/wrong direction polls have consistently shown that more than three-quarters of the country feel as though the nation is on the wrong track. In a recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports, only 24% of American feel the country is headed in the right direction.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech discuss Newt Gingrich’s win in South Carolina, what his victory means for Florida’s upcoming primary, and whether or not the GOP could have a brokered convention.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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Ben: Why Newt?
Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means.
Some thoughts on the South Carolina results

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Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).

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Less than a week after ABC released (and Drudge essentially spoiled) the story that we were told could “end [Newt Gingrich's] career,” the former Speaker came from behind to win the South Carolina primary by a startling 13%.  Not only did South Carolina voters ignore the latest unverifiable mainstream media report on the private life of a Republican candidate—a report that was specifically timed to inflict maximum damage—many of them likely voted for Gingrich to spite the MSM.  Exit polling suggests that Newt’s entire margin of victory was comprised of South Carolinians who decided on their candidate near or on primary day, i.e. after ABC’s story had leaked.  Those who decided after the CNN debate in which Gingrich embarrassed CNN’s John King for his liberal bias voted solidly for Newt.

Conventional wisdom is that debates don’t decide nominations, but that notion is as antiquated as the paper route. This is, after all, the media age.  It’s the era of YouTube, Twitter, and the 24-hour news network.  Fear the candidate who can beat the media at their own game, and right now, that candidate is Newt Gingrich.

Their imperfect track-records aside, the former speaker has been able to distinguish himself from Governor Romney in two crucial ways.  The first difference is in who, or what, they are campaigning against.  The foundation of Mitt Romney’s campaign is keeping a narrow focus on Barack Obama.  This isn’t a bad strategy, per se, but it doesn’t comprehensively address the problems we are facing as a society.  After all, Barack Obama is a product of the American left.  He was raised in academia, sold to us by Hollywood, and elected by the mainstream media.  The President is the tip of the iceberg, and the Republican candidate should understand that Obama is a symptom of what ails us, not the cause. (more…)

Here are some of the things to learn from South Carolina.

• Evangelicals went overwhelmingly for a twice divorced Catholic in the same percentage that they voted for a Baptist ordained minister in 2008. They haven’t warmed to Mitt Romney and if they haven’t warmed to him after 6 years of a campaign, they never will.

• South Carolina, a state that has one of the nation’s highest divorce records, knows a money-grubbing, attention-seeking ex-wife (and the media that aids and abets her) when it sees one. Gingrich cleaned up among men (42%), but also women (38%). South Carolinians know a fussy hussy. Only a bully rubs salt in someone’s wounds years after they have turned to scars.

• Mitt’s coalition in South Carolina is very worrisome for anyone hoping to win the nomination. He won those with postgraduate degrees (18 percent of the electorate), people earning $200,000 or more (5 percent), moderates (23 percent), non-evangelicals (35 percent), and pro-choicers (34 percent). If you look at the exit polls, you see the magnitude of this shellacking. Ron Paul did best with those 18-29, but only by three points over Gingrich.

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WASHINGTON (AP) – Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Sunday that he will release his 2010 tax returns and 2011 estimates on Tuesday, acknowledging it was a mistake for his campaign not to have done so earlier.

Stung by a loss to Newt Gingrich in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, the former Massachusetts governor and venture capitalist said it was “not a good week for me” and he cited all the time he had spent talking about his tax returns as his rivals pressed him to make them public.

After months of resistance, Romney had said last week that he would release tax information for 2011, but not until April, close to the tax filing deadline. That also was seen as a time, before the South Carolina race rattled his front-runner status, when the GOP nomination might have been decided.

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COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) – Newt Gingrich stormed to an upset win in the South Carolina primary Saturday night, dealing a sharp setback to Mitt Romney and scrambling the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

“Thank you, South Carolina!” Gingrich swiftly tweeted to his supporters. He appealed for a flood or donations for the next-up Jan. 31 primary. “Help me deliver the knockout punch in Florida. Join our Moneybomb and donate now,” he tweeted.

Already, Romney and a group that supports him were on the air in Florida with a significant ad campaign, more than $7 million combined to date. Romney had hoped that Florida would seal his nomination—if South Carolina didn’t first—but that strategy disappeared Saturday night.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Rep. Ron Paul trailed badly in the South Carolina voting.

Exit polling showed Gingrich, the former House speaker, leading by a wide margin among the state’s heavy population of conservatives, tea party supporters and born-again Christians. (more…)

In last week’s essay, we quoted Winston Churchill’s memorable statement that “Democracy is the worst system there is except for all the others.  We also restated Churchill’s observation by noting that we need to revise our delegate selection process and “the sooner the better.”

This observation is most particularly true for the nominating process of either party seeking to replace an incumbent President or the party of an incumbent who is not running for re-election.

With Iowa’s caucus and the New Hampshire primary finished, we should pause and look at a little history to illustrate how our current process, in effect, disenfranchises a majority of voters.

In 1952, Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois (perhaps one of that state’s last governors who did not go on to a career of making license plates)  was selected as the nominee at the Democratic convention through a series of state primaries and won the 1952 nomination at the Democratic convention on the third ballot.  Today, nominating conventions have no real purpose to them except for the public learning the nominee’s vice-presidential choice.  Bringing party professionals into the mix might spare us another Sarah Palin debacle.  Perhaps there is a role for smoke filled rooms, even though smoking would be banned!

In 1952 the process produced Senator John Sparkman as the democratic Vice-Presidential choice, an obvious sop to party bosses who did not trust the candidate Estes Kefauver, who went into the convention with the most pledged delegates. After the first two ballots Kefauver led but was overtaken on the third ballot when Stevenson was nominated.  The 1952 presidential race had earlier been thrown into disarray when President Truman announced that he would not seek re-election.  As we all know, General Eisenhower was elected President in November 1952. In 1956 Kefauver ran again and won the New Hampshire and Minnesota primary over Stevenson.  Although Stevenson was again nominated, this time around the party chose Kefauver as his running mate.

Fast forward to 1968 when President Johnson made his surprise announcement to a nation bitterly divided by the Vietnam War that he would not seek another term.  Senator Robert Kennedy won the California primary in June, defeating anti-war Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota.  Kennedy in his final words said “on to Chicago” before being shot by a lunatic, Sirhan Sirhan.  In the end, Senator Hubert Humphrey received the nomination, but lost the general election to Richard Nixon, who had stated in 1962, after losing the California governorship, that we wouldn’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.

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The proximity of the New Hampshire and South Carolina Republican primaries sets up an interesting discussion over the fate of right-to-work among the states. Indeed, after New Hampshire’s Republican voters cast their ballots for their party’s nominee for the general election, its legislators were already holding hearings to determine whether or not to transform New Hampshire into a right-to-work state. On the other hand, South Carolina’s status as right-to-work was made famous by President Obama’s assault on non-unionized jobs brought to the state by Boeing Co.

Remembering the old adage, “all politics is local,” Republican candidates weighed in on this topic during two consecutive debates in New Hampshire earlier this month. Mitt Romney claimed “Right-to-work legislation makes a lot of sense for New Hampshire.” In fact, it makes more sense for New Hampshire’s legislature to implement this policy than for most other local governments. How can the “Live Free or Die” state deny its workers the basic liberty to choose which organizations they associate with and contribute money to? Why would one of the first states to ratify our national Constitution continue to impose a policy that contradicts that document’s emphasis on freedom of assembly? In a nation of citizens who value their freedoms, right-to-work should be a common sense principle rather than a rare policy only enacted by 22 of 50 states. No one is doubting a worker’s right to join a union, so why must today’s liberals doubt their right to not join one?

Next Rick Perry asserted that a right-to-work labor market would make New Hampshire a “powerful magnet” for jobs in the region. Indeed since no other Northeastern state has adopted similar legislation yet, if New Hampshire became right-to-work, that state would be the first in the region to do so. As a result, any skilled workers in the area hesitant about union membership or businesses unable to meet the demands of unreasonable union bosses would flock to New Hampshire, providing a significant boost to its economy.

Although purporting to be the party that supports workers’ rights, the Democrats have risen in unified opposition to guaranteeing American laborers one of their most fundamental freedoms: the ability to choose whether or not to join a union. For instance, the Democratic Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch, vetoed a previous right-to-work bill passed overwhelmingly by his state’s legislature.

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Only the mainstream media could make Newt Gingrich sympathetic on a personal level.  All you need to know about the CNN South Carolina debate happened in the first three minutes, when moderator John King began the night by questioning Newt on allegations made by his ex-wife Marianne.  Gingrich proceeded to do what he’s done best in the campaign—and better than any other candidate on the stage by a wide margin—and that’s rip into the MSM for their malignant and pathological liberal bias.  For Gingrich, a man largely known for having a sordid personal history, to spin the interview that we were told could “end his career” into a net-positive is simultaneously a mega-victory for him and a loss for the increasingly embarrassing CNN.  That is, of course, unless the media can keep the “open marriage” story alive somehow…  The standing ovation last night wasn’t just for Newt; it was for all of us who have raised awareness about the Democrat Media Complex.

Mitt Romney’s night will likely be defined by his mealy-mouthed non-answer when pressed on his reluctance to release his tax returns. I’ve been a proponent of saving anything that could be potentially useful in the general election for the general election, so up until recently I was sympathetic to Mitt’s plan to hold off on disclosing those documents until the likely event he squares off with Barack Obama.  Why not try to trade them for Obama’s illusive college transcripts?  Alas, it has become a political football, so Mitt’s probably best advised to drop them now.  My only hope is that the other candidates’ insistence Mitt releases his tax returns post haste isn’t so that they can use them to play the divisive and dispiriting Occupy-style class warfare politics we saw last week.  It’s startling that the record national debt wasn’t discussed last night, but the candidates talked about Romney’s tax docs until they were blue in the face.

Hopefully people will also remember Romney’s excellent answer when King asked what the candidates would have done differently during the campaign.  Romney delivered a witty and self-deprecating line about how he would have made sure to secure 34 more votes in Iowa and then that he should have focused even more narrowly on Barack Obama, which has been the cornerstone of his campaign. (more…)

From Politico:

Rick Perry is expected to drop out later this morning at an 11 a.m. press conference and endorse Newt Gingrich, two sources confirmed to POLITICO.

The news was first reported by CNN.

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Attorney General Eric Holder got a lot wrong in his speech in Columbia, South Carolina, but two things in particular: 1) that voter fraud is rare and 2) that South Carolina’s voter laws are racist, not only by their intent, but by their effect.

Holder told his audience that included the NAACP top brass:

… I learned early in my legal career – when I actually investigated and prosecuted voting-fraud cases – making voter registration easier is simply not likely, by itself, to make our elections more susceptible to fraud. Indeed, responsible parties on all sides of this debate have acknowledged that in-person voting fraud is uncommon.

But Alabama Democrat (and black) former congressman Artur Davis says that, on the contrary, voter fraud is far more common than surmised. Indeed, the very day that Holder spoke in South Carolina The Daily Caller broke a story highlighting the criminal voter fraud conducted by the NAACP in Mississippi and Ohio. Democrats, including Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, Pittsburgh District Attorney Stephen A. Zappala Jr., and Miami, FL. State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle, have all prosecuted the voter fraud that Holder says is rare. Voter I.D. would hamper the ease with which voter fraud could be committed.

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Mike Flynn, Editor, BigGovernment:

At last, days before what everyone in the media claims is the “final” primary contest before Romney’s inevitable capture of the GOP nomination, we had our first real debate. Not only was there back-and-forth among the candidates, but we were also treated to something resembling substance on some interesting issues. After South Carolina, something like 3% of all GOP delegates will have been selected. No need to end this party too soon, especially since the candidates’ characters and positions are only now starting to emerge.

Gov. Perry and Gingrich had the best night, overall. But, a good debate performance is already baked into the cake for Newt, so it isn’t clear how much of a bump he gets. Perry has steadily improved in the debates, with tonight’s performance being his best, but it may be too little too late. Sad, as I still think he has the record and the temperament to warrant a second look. GOP voters seem stubbornly fixated on never giving him that.

Romney, on the cusp of the media’s coronation, was finally subjected to sustained attacks from his rivals. He generally deflected most of these. But, not in a way that gives me confidence should he be the nominee. It was more in the ‘i-have-some-good-lines-to-counter-these-points’ kind of deflection rather than directly answering the charge. He was trying to win on points. Marquiss of Queensbury rules won’t cut it in November.

As for Santorum….well. He could certainly best Obama in a smugness contest. I’d like to borrow that man’s mirror for a day, but I’d probably become convinced I’m some modern-day Pericles and combust in a fire-ball of my own awesomeness. That a collection of evangelical leaders tapped him as their choice for the next President says way too much about the current state of leadership in the evangelical movement.

Ron Paul seems to be having a blast in this campaign. I know many people obsess over his obviously antiquated views on foreign policy, but he is acting like a modern-day Diogenes and making the other candidates more honest.

Line of the night goes to Gingrich: 99 weeks is an Associate Degree.

Dana Loesch, Editor, BigJournalism:

Newt Gingrich won tonight’s debate. Rick Perry finished second, followed by Santorum, Romney, and Paul. My favorite moment of the debate was when Romney slammed campaign finance law and the necessity of super PACs thus slamming … John McCain’s legislation. McCain, who last week endorsed him. Gingrich’s Ben Franklin-esque answer on helping people from poverty rather than making them easier in it earned him a standing O. Takeaway quote on unemployment benefits: “99 weeks is an associate degree.”

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Americans celebrate Martin Luther King, Jr.’s birthday to honor his contributions to our Republic. His struggle against racial prejudice and discrimination brought the words of the Founders–“that all men are created equal”–to true fruition.

Dr. King used non-violent protest, and an appeal to universal principles, to bring Americans together. His birthday should be a holiday that unites us.

Instead, Democrats are using it to divide Americans.

Consider the sermon offered by White House adviser Valerie Jarrett yesterday, at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta where Dr. King preached. She told the audience: “Teachers, and firefighters, and policemen, whose jobs are now in jeopardy because Congress–well let me be specific–because [of] the Republicans in Congress.”

Those in the audience laughed and applauded at Jarret’s brazen–and false–partisan attack.

Democrats have rewritten the history of the civil rights struggle to portray Republicans as the villains, when in fact most segregationists were Democrats. Republicans, in fact, voted for civil rights laws in greater proportions than Democrats. Moreover, Dr. King himself had been a Republican. Regardless, Dr. King was careful not to divide Americans along party lines in his struggle for justice–nor would he approve of it today.

Another Obama administration official who is exploiting Dr. King’s memory for political gain is Attorney General Eric Holder, who used the holiday to renew his attack on voter ID laws in South Carolina, falsely claiming they are racially discriminatory.

It is Holder, in fact, who practices racial discrimination by refusing to apply voting laws equally, notably in the New Black Panther Party case, an open-and-shut example of voter intimidation. (more…)

WASHINGTON (AP) – Jon Huntsman will withdraw Monday from the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Campaign officials tell The Associated Press Huntsman will endorse Mitt Romney at an event in South Carolina on Monday morning.

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Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum has received a powerful shot in the arm as top US evangelical leaders endorsed his White House bid ahead of a crucial South Carolina primary.

The endorsement came after about 150 influential Christian conservative leaders met at a ranch outside of Houston, Texas, in hopes of rallying their forces around one candidate before the January 21 vote in the state where evangelicals and social conservatives make up 60 percent of the Republican electorate.

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