The stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing-index reading for September might normally suggest that the economy, at least for now, has dodged a recession bullet. After zero jobs and zero real consumer spending in August, which put the stalled economy on the front end of recession, the ISM number is the first major September reading.

But economist Michael Darda says hold the applause: Inside the ISM, new orders and order backlogs either flat-lined or declined and remain below 50 — the DMZ recession marker on the index.

Darda believes weak data in the U.S., plus the ongoing European crisis, plus the China slowdown, plus widened corporate credit spreads and stressful financial conditions, all point to a declining economy and additional stock market drops.

Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is also on the bear side. He has a falling weekly leading index that signals recession is inevitable. “It’s either just begun, or it’s right in front of us,” he told CNN Money.

Tough stuff.

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At this very moment an historic press conference is taking place in Topeka, Kansas, to announce The National Tea Party Nominating Convention, also known as Freedom Fest 2011.

If you are a Tea Party activist or someone who is sick and tired of being forced to choose the “best available Republican candidate from among the worst,” then this is the event you have been waiting for.

The nominating convention will take place in America’s heartland, Kansas City, October 5^th-9^th, 2011.  Over 1 million people are expected to attend, including several of the U.S. Presidential hopefuls.

I am humbled to write that Yours Truly has been selected to act as emcee.

The purpose of the convention is not to be a third party challenge but instead, to vet U.S. Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates so that the RNC understands which candidates the grassroots Tea Party nation supports.  Should the Republican party choose to ignore the message, they will do so at their own risk.

As political pollster and author of the book Mad As Hell: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two Party System Scott Rasmussen recently told me on my radio show, “I can’t imagine any Republican party Presidential candidate winning his party’s nomination without the support of the Tea party movement.” (more…)

From Rasmussen Reports:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.

This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

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Renown pollster Scott Rasmussen discussed the reason a backlash against Democratic health care reform is brewing. Rasmussen also discusses Obama, Evan Bayh, upcoming Republican victories and various other topics.

“I think the other thing that is hurting Democrats on the health care issue right now is sort of the sense of they were going to push it through regardless of the fact that it was unpopular, and I don’t think that’s the kind of responsiveness that people are looking for.”

“Right now you’d have to say the likelihood is the Democrats will lose 5 to 8 seats in the Senate, which means the Republicans would not gain control. That’s probably good news for the GOP because I don’t think they want to be in charge heading into 2012. Also expect that the Republicans will pick up maybe 25 or 30 seats in the House.”

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From Politico:

Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency.

The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.

On progressive-oriented websites, anti-Rasmussen sentiment is an article of faith. “Rasmussen Caught With Their Thumb on the Scale,” blared the Daily Kos this summer. “Rasmussen Reports, You Decide,” the blog Swing State Project recently headlined in a play on the Fox News motto.

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President Obama told an audience at a Democratic Party fundraiser Wednesday night that Republicans often “do what they’re told,” but GOP voters don’t think their legislators listen enough to them.

Just 15% of Republicans who plan to vote in 2012 state primaries say the party’s representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 73% think Republicans in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters from throughout the nation. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided.
These numbers are basically unchanged from a survey in late April.

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From Rasmussen Reports: