The number of Republicans in the country inched up half a percentage point in January, while the number of Democrats, 32.5%, dipped to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

During January, 35.9% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.4% in December and the highest number of Republicans measured since December 2010.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

Read more at Rasmussen Reports.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has opened a double-digit lead in Florida as the perception grows among Republican primary voters that he is the strongest general election candidate against President Obama. The state’s GOP Primary is on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, conducted Saturday, shows Romney up by 16 points with 44% support. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant second at 28%.

These figures reflect a significant turnaround over the past week. Last Sunday, just after his big win in the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney by nine. By the middle of this past week, Romney was back in control with an eight-point advantage. Despite all the ups and downs, the results today are very similar to polling results found in Florida three weeks ago, coming off Romney’s decisive victory in the New Hampshire Primary.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

Republican voters are looking first and foremost for a candidate who can beat Obama. Earlier in the week, when Gingrich was leading in Florida, the Sunshine State’s primary voters were evenly divided as to whether Romney or Gingrich would be the stronger general election candidate. By mid-week, as Romney regained the lead, he had a 15-point advantage over Gingrich on this question. Today, 53% believe that Romney is the strongest candidate against the president, and only 29% think Gingrich fits that role.

Read more at Rasmussen Reports.

What a difference a caucus makes. Rick Santorum who two months ago had one percent (1%) support among likely South Carolina Republican Primary voters now is running a close second there with 24% of the vote.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Palmetto State finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney still in the lead, earning 27% support from likely GOP Primary Voters, up from 23% in early November. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in third with 18% of the vote, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 11%.

Bringing up the rear are Texas Governor Rick Perry with five percent (5%) and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman at two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) of these likely primary voters like some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race in November, Georgia businessman Herman Cain came in first with 33% support, followed by Romney and Gingrich. Cain has since dropped out of the race.

Read more here.

Herman Cain did well in last week’s GOP debate and won a decisive straw poll victory in Florida, but his numbers in a general election match-up against President Obama are little changed.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that Obama earns 39% support while Cain attracts 34%. In that match-up, 14% prefer some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A month ago, the president led Cain by seven percentage points. In March Obama held an 18 point advantage over the businessman and talk show host.

Data released earlier today shows that voters nationwide are evenly divided as to whether or not Cain is qualified to be president — 30% say yes, 33% no, and 37% are not sure. Republicans, by a 49% to 17% margin believe he is qualified while most Democrats disagree. Among Republicans, Cain’s numbers on this question are similar to Rick Perry’s but not as strong as Mitt Romney’s.

Read the whole thing here. Obama leads virtually all the GOP candidates by only a slim margin. Interestingly, though, Herman Cain is the only GOP candidate who holds Obama to under 40%.

Campaign strategists for President Obama as well as the leaders of both political parties, should be burning a lot of midnight oil pondering the reality that three quarters of the nation believes we are headed in the wrong direction.  That’s not just an opinion that’s being expressed.  It, rather, reflects a growing sinking feeling, a queasiness in the nation’s collective gut, not that things just aren’t going well, but that things are getting worse. It says that the vast majority of Americans believe the course that has been, and is being, set is the wrong course.

What should be particularly distressing to the White House is not only that the nation’s confidence is so low, but that it has also been deteriorating rather steadily.  To be sure, the people were unhappy with the direction of the country when President Bush left office.  When Bush departed Washington, two-thirds of the people felt we were headed in the wrong direction.  Now, following thirty-three months of President Obama’s initiatives to fundamentally transform America, three-quarters of the nation feels we are headed in the wrong direction.  The question doesn’t ask whether the people are happy with where we are, but, more importantly, whether they are happy with where we are headed.

Most polls provide a glimpse at where the electorate’s opinions are at a given moment, and, consequently, are subject to rapid change.  For example, prior to September 15^th 1950, most Americans probably would not have liked the way the war in Korea was going.  But between September 15 and September 19^th the enormously successful Inchon landing took place, and American opinion would have, no doubt, turned around on a dime.  President George H.W. Walker enjoyed very high approval ratings in January of 1991 following the successful Gulf War, but in spite of his personal popularity, his electability diminished as the economy declined in the months thereafter, clearing the way for President Clinton’s election in 1992.  Likewise, President Obama enjoyed a temporary, but well deserved bump in his approval rating when our navy seals took out Osama Bin Laden.

Presidential approval ratings (as compared to the “where we’re headed ratings“) are, we believe, less telling.

Respondents may personally like a President.  They may think he is really trying hard or that he really wants to do the right thing. When, however, they are asked whether think the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction, those personal (or even political) biases largely disappear. It is a question that elicits more than a mere opinion.  It calls for an expression of one’s common sense.

President Obama is widely admired and, to many, he is an inspiring figure.  He has enjoyed a meteoric rise to prominence; he is extremely well educated, uncommonly articulate, displays an impressive grasp of detail and is the first African American President of the United States.  But he and his advisors know that the results of the next Presidential election are not apt to run contrary to the direction in which the voters believe the country is headed.  It will be hard for the President and his campaign strategists to blame Bush for the direction in which the country is heading four years after Bush will have left office. While the most recent Gallop Poll has President Obama at about a 50 percent approval rating, which attests to his rather broad personal popularity, that same Gallup poll also tells us that 76 percent of the people know something is terribly wrong.  They believe the economy is getting worse, which tracks in tandem with the Rasmussen’s finding that the people believe we are headed in the wrong direction.

If, thirteen months from now, the country believes the country is headed in the right direction, President Obama can look forward to another four years in Washington.  If, on the other hand, the “where we’re headed” polls continue to show that the vast majority of Americans believe we’re headed in the wrong direction, the President is not likely to be returned to office if the electorate perceives his opponent to be a serious exemplar of what they perceive is a better direction.

It is, at this point in time, difficult to see what might cause American voters to change their negative view of the direction in which the country is headed.  Unemployment remains stubbornly high and all indications are that it will remain high, levitating around nine percent. Leading financial analysts expect GDP growth to come in at under 2.0 percent for 2011 and barely 2.0 for 2012 (Goldman-Sachs revised estimates for economic growth).   These projections are woefully short of the Administration’s more optimistic economic projections.  The Goldman-Sachs economists expect unemployment in the United States to edge up to 9.25 by the end of 2012.

Further exasperating the economic outlook for the country is the deepening financial crisis in Europe. If Europe sinks into recession, or if the dollar continues to strengthen against the Euro (assuming there continues to be a Euro) American exports to Europe are certain to suffer. Not a pretty picture for an Administration trying to posture for reelection.

All of this would suggest to us that the White House should have all of its efforts focused on stimulating economic growth.  Corporate taxes should be pegged at rates that give American firms competitive advantage rather than placing them at a competitive disadvantage.  Individual tax rates should be simplified and reduced as suggested by Simpson-Bowles.

Unnecessary and outdated tax policies including the entire panoply of credits, deductions and other tax subsidies and privilege that drain revenue should be stricken from the tax code.  We should concentrate regulatory efforts on enforcing those regulations that are on the books that ensure a fair and level playing field for every enterprise engaged in the commerce of the country, and signal the burgeoning federal bureaucracy to turn off the paper chase to write new regulations with which to saddle and financially burden American business.

We don’t need a vast new federal jobs program nearly as much as we need a vast new federal mentality for stimulating the economic-growth-conducive policies that in turn produce new and needed opportunity for all Americans.

Today, Americans overwhelmingly feel we “are headed in the wrong direction.” That’s what the polls tell us.  George Gallop, the father of modern polling once remarked that, “the common people of America display a quality of good common sense which is heartening to anyone who believes in the democratic process.”  If the Administration continues to pursue variations of the same failed policies, the President will find it hard to run against that same “good common sense.”

By Hal Gershowitz and Stephen Porter

For example the chart below reflects the President’s approval index from the day the Bin Laden news was released though today.  Approval index represents the people who strongly approve of the President’s performance minus the people who strongly disapprove. So it is an indication of the people most passionate about President’s performance, these are the people who are most likely to work toward/against Re-election of the present POTUS.

Keep in mind, the Bin Laden news was released well after the May 2nd sample was taken and released. Rasmussen numbers reflect three days sampling ending with the day prior to the numbers being released so, for example for the May 4th numbers only one third of the sample was questioned after the Bin Laden death was reported.  It was not until May 6th that the entire sample had the possibility of being aware of the death of Bin Laden.

On May 2nd, the day Bin Laden was killed the President’s approval index was at a -12. From there it generally rose through May 7th, and started falling through today’s report which shows him back at a -12.

Overall approval and disapproval numbers show the same pattern.

Prior to Bin Laden’s trip to hell, Rasmussen reported that President’s overall approval/disapproval numbers were both at 49%, today his disapproval stands at 52% and approval stands at 48%

What should be even more troubling to the President should be the fact that his numbers among independents are not promising (the Oth column in the chart below boxed in red)

Among independents, the president’s approval index is at a minus 22, and almost 70% of independents believe that the country is on the wrong track.

Over-all President Obama received (and frankly deserved) an approval bounce based on the Navy Seals heroic action eliminating Osama Bin Laden as a threat to this country.  As the saying all good things must pass, but nobody expected things to pass so quickly.

But this is a nation which is on the precipice of a financial abyss. As soon as the joy that Bin Laden is no longer a threat passed, the weekly new unemployment claims figure shot up and the monthly unemployment percentage rose back to 9%.  These number shocked America out of its post Bin Laden euphoria and back into the reality that Barack Obama has mis-handled the economy.  Look for his numbers to continue to fall as long as the economy continues to falter.

Americans have closely followed news stories about the shooting of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and the killing of six others in Arizona on Saturday, and most don’t feel politics was the cause of it.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 28% of Adults say the shooting in Arizona was the result of political anger in the country. Fifty-eight percent (58%) say instead that it was a random act of violence by an unstable person. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans and 56% of adults not affiliated with either of the major political parties view the shooting as a random act of violence. Even Democrats by a 48% to 37% margin agree, although leading members of their party have attributed the shootings to a climate of anger they say has been generated by opponents of President Obama.

Read more here. On of the hallmarks of civil society in America is our strong tendency to unite in times of tragedy, irrespective of our individual politics. That so many on the left choose division over unity tells us more about them than it does about the American public. Their anger has clearly poisoned something deep inside them. We should keep them in our prayers.