In a stunning reversal of voter opinions since the first weekend in August; the Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey reveals that “Likely U.S. Voters” has flipped from 75% feeling it is at least somewhat important for the government to launch a new stimulus program to create jobs (57% saying “it is Very Important”), to just 38% now supporting the President’s $447 billion jobs plan presented to the Joint Session of Congress. This nose-dive in support for a bold new government spending initiative to fight unemployment is directly tied to the violent plunge in the U.S. stock prices caused by the credit rating downgrade of the United States of America.

Likely voters have good reason to be concerned about the negative consequences of another round of big government spending. U.S. stock prices of the 500 large largest American companies in the S&P 500 Index made all-time highs just prior to the real estate and banking 2008 Credit Crisis. Over the next seven months, the stock prices of these conservative companies fell by 50% and heralded the start of the worst economic decline in America history since the Great Depression.

Here are a few statistics that demonstrate just how historic last month’s response has been to the downgrade of America’s credit rating by the S&P 500 Stock Index:

• The index was down whapping 5.7% for the month;
• The sum total of the violent up and down moves during the month was equal to 47%;
• Volatility was in the 98th percent highest level of any month since 1928;
• Investment return was in the bottom 10% of monthly returns since 1928;
• If September shows a loss, it will be only the 9th consecutive 5 month loss since 1928;
• The last 5 months of continuous stock losses before the Credit Crisis of 2008, was 1974.

The stock market is predicting that the United States reliance on big government initiatives funded by deficit spending is over. Next year, the recent deal to increase the debt ceiling requires $71 billion spending cuts. Furthermore, on December 31, 2011 the 100% depreciation of corporate capital purchases for 2011 will expire. The net effect of these cutbacks will result in approximately a 2% reduction in GDP. This will be the largest reduction in government activity since WWII.

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With Texas Governor Rick Perry now leading the race for the Republican nomination for President, only days after jumping into contest (according to Rasmussen Reports – full disclosure, I have endorsed Perry) – we can expect a withering response from President Obama and his allies on the left.  As John Podhoretz noted in Commentary, comparing Perry to Ronald Reagan, “The conservative boogeyman is back.”

Since the Republican Party’s natural constituency is conservative, more so in this tumultuous Tea Party era, most attacks on Perry will be from the right – the attacks from the left will come after Perry wins the nomination.  That the machinery of the left will aid in the early attacks from the right is a given; it’s all part of winning for them.
The Trans-Texas Corridor is one such emerging line of criticism against Gov. Perry.  First proposed by Perry in 2002, the north-south running road would have also included a railway, petroleum pipeline, power lines, and communications cables.

Some conservatives have linked the planned Texas road with the feared, but as yet theoretical, North American Union or NAU and NAFTA, dubbing it the NAFTA Super Highway.  That Perry would have proposed such a thing is yet more proof to them that Perry is somehow the “Establishment” candidate (never mind his comments about the Fed, the Tenth Amendment, and the fact that the same “Establishment” ran Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison against him for governor last year).

So, what’s the deal with Perry’s proposed superhighway and should conservatives be worried?

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The assertion that the Tea Party is “racist” is not only unsupported by facts, it is also an assertion that is impossible to determine.  The simple application of reason — a shocking request to make for those too ideologically rigid to see straight — proves this out.

Even assuming the most liberal definition of the word “racist”, we must ask how an entire set of people can be proclaimed to be racist.  For starters, is there some percentage threshold that any group must cross to be branded “racist”?  The question itself is absurd, so we rightly dismiss it.  Likewise, if even a single African-American is supportive of or, God Forbid, a member of the Tea Party, does that negate the racism assertion?  Or does it brand that unfortunate soul an “Uncle Tom”? Again, the questions are absurd.

Tea Party opponents, and the MSM, have applied the Fallacy of Inductive Generalization to the movement.  That is:

1.     Sample S, which is too small, is taken from population T.

2.     Conclusion R is drawn about Population T based on A.

As we know, in any group, there will be some population of extremists.    Tea Party opponents simply cherry-pick a population of extremists from Tea Party gatherings, and fallaciously generalize the entire movement.

So rather than use the cherry-picked, unrepresentative, non-scientific samplings of Tea Party opponents, let’s look at proper sampling.  These are commonly called “polls”, which are no substitute for common sense, but do provide statistical support for it.

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Barack Obama’s public approval rating has dropped to as low as 47% in the last week, according to Gallup.  Although the President will not appear on the ballot again until 2012, how the public views his presidency will have a direct impact on each party’s performance in next year’s mid-term elections.

The party holding the White House has lost seats in 10 of the last 12 mid-terms, going back to President Kennedy’s 1962 losses.  Even in that year, with a 74% approval rating following the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy’s Democrats lost seats in the House.  Historically, the public uses mid-term elections to correct for the perceived excesses of the party in power, while the absence of coattail effects may result in some seats reverting back to the party with the natural advantage in the district.

IMPACT ON CONGRESSIONAL RACES.  The magnitude of the net losses suffered by the President’s party in Congress has been in direct, inverse proportion to the President’s public approval rating on Election Day.  The party in control of the White House suffered the most in 1966, 1974 and 1994 when the incumbent’s approval ratings were all under 50%.  High approval ratings of President Clinton in 1998 (66%) and President Bush in 2002 (63%) helped the governing party gain seats in those two years — a historical aberration.

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President Obama told an audience at a Democratic Party fundraiser Wednesday night that Republicans often “do what they’re told,” but GOP voters don’t think their legislators listen enough to them.

Just 15% of Republicans who plan to vote in 2012 state primaries say the party’s representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 73% think Republicans in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters from throughout the nation. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided.
These numbers are basically unchanged from a survey in late April.

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From Rasmussen Reports: