The Obama administration recently ruled that all insurance policies must offer contraceptive services with no co-payments required. In and of itself, that decision is neither positive nor negative. Forty-three percent of voters favor it, while 46 percent are opposed. Among Catholics, though, according to Scott Rasmussen, only 28% believe religious organizations should be required to implement rules that violate church teachings. Sixty-five percent are opposed, which is true even though many Catholics disagree with the Pope on this matter. The only Catholics that agree with Obama are those that already voted for him. Only 39% of Catholic voters approve of Obama’s job performance today, compared to 54% in November 2008.

The person most helped by all of this is Rick Santorum, who now trails the president nationwide by only four points, 46% to 42%. In Ohio, Santorum is even with Obama, while Romney trails by four points.

Interestingly, Mitt Romney’s argument about electability is also called into question by recent polling. According to Rasmussen’s tracking history, Obama attracts some 50% of the vote against Romney’s 40%, opening up the largest lead Obama has yet enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney.

So what to make of it all? Romney’s down against Obama and Santorum’s up.

Ah, but will he swing and miss in November?

Put down the Ben & Jerry’s, it’s not over. As a matter of fact, it’s only just begun.

With the inundation of negativity abounding for conservatives over our depressing whimpers of lament, here are three reasons you should not give up hope for a big change in November of 2012.

1. “Don’t believe everything you read on the Internet.” ~ Abraham Lincoln

It’s very easy to become convinced through main stream media that all hope should be abandoned.  However, you can always seek out evidence proving otherwise.

Rasmussen Reports produces Daily Presidential Tracking Polls.  Admittedly, this is similar to weighing yourself every day.  Certain circumstances on a day-to-day basis, like a late night left over pizza binge, can affect the numbers greatly.  As of Friday February 3^rd, current GOP front runner Mitt Romney was polling neck in neck with the President at 45% in a potential election match-up.  This is the first time Romney has polled this high against Obama since late in December.  The numbers are issued daily and you can have them delivered directly to your inbox each morning. Defeating an incumbent is never easy, but these numbers show it’s possible.

2. It’s about Obama

Up until now in the GOP race, the candidates have remained in a circular firing squad.  Admittedly, this was disturbing in the beginning until you realize it’s necessary to have great sparring partners if you want to be prepared to deliver a TKO in the main event.  There will be no new carpet bombs left to throw.  And in turn, it will allow the Republican nominee to stay on the offense focusing solely and heavily on Obama’s failed record.

According to Rasmussen in the same poll, only 26% of the nation’s voters “strongly approve” of the President’s performance whereas, 41% “strongly disapprove.”  The President’s new effort to promote an increasing number of people to apply for the food stamp program is only receiving an 11% favorable response.

And the positive job numbers that were just released, which I am pleased about and believe is a wonderful thing for our country, do not include the over one million job seekers who have essentially fallen out of the system because they have given up hope of finding employment.

3. Don’t Underestimate American Fortitude

Lastly, don’t underestimate Americans and their ability to protect the country they love.

The number of Americans who label themselves as “Democrats” have now reached an all-time low with 32.5%, whereas those who consider themselves Republicans stands at 35.9%.  Neither of which were reportedly held at gun-point.

It’s important to remember the fight for conservatism and the ideology of the framers of our constitution will always be a lifelong pursuit from one generation to the next.  We will never have “arrived”.

Like the great Ronald Reagan said, “Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United States where men were free.”

Difficult does not mean impossible. It just means a sweeter victory.

This notion is utterly false.

While it is certainly accurate that any of the four remaining candidates for the Republican nomination will provide a stark, and compelling, contrast to the failed policies of the Obama administration, it is Newt Gingrich who has of late tapped into a visceral chord of discontent that permeates throughout much of the nation.

And, contrary to the narrative promoting Gingrich’s un-electability, the anger and discontent felt throughout the nation is not relegated to the conservative base of the Republican party. Nearly every political demographic in the nation, left, right, and middle, is frustrated with the Obama administration’s failure to improve the economic health and overall condition of the country.

Right direction/wrong direction polls have consistently shown that more than three-quarters of the country feel as though the nation is on the wrong track. In a recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports, only 24% of American feel the country is headed in the right direction.

More importantly, in a recent CBS poll, only 23% of Independents felt that the country was on the right track. Just over half of Democrats polled agreed. Couple those numbers with less than one in ten Republicans optimistic about the direction of the country and you have an electorate ripe for fundamental change; one seeking an impassioned voice to articulate their apprehensions toward the current administration’s policies.

In Newt Gingrich, it appears for now at least, that many Republican voters have found that voice. While the external validity of exit polling in South Carolina should rightly be questioned, it did show an unmistakable and broad swath of support for Gingrich among many divergent constituencies.

It is the continued support from these very groups that will be crucial to success in the myriad swing-states essential in the Fall election.

While Gingrich easily bested his opponents among nearly all income, age, and ideological constituencies, it was his wide margin of victory among voters whose primary concern was “beating Barack Obama” that has piqued the most interest among pundits.

Within this demographic, Gingrich secured half of the available vote in a four-man contest. That type of success portends an appeal much broader than conventional wisdom has thus allowed.

The type of conservative populism that Gingrich excels at is precisely what disaffected voters throughout the nation are seeking; a bold voice with laser-guided precision, honed in on the failed policies of the Obama administration.

To argue that a candidate with such an attribute would be unelectable in a general election, against an incumbent whose job approval numbers hover south of the political Mendoza line, strains credulity.

It is true that Gingrich’s colorful past will provide political fodder for Democratic operatives should he secure the GOP nomination. But that reality will follow whoever becomes the Republican standard bearer.

American of all stripes are seeking an impassioned leader to rally around in the Fall. If Gingrich can maintain the energy and passion he stirred in South Carolina, an in so doing continue to articulate the ideals of American exceptionalism and conservatism so distinct from the policy failures of this administration, he will in fact provide a formidable challenge to Barack Obama in November.

Using the Obama administration’s new theme of “We Can’t Wait,” a slogan which refers to Congress’ inability to obtain the votes to pass the president’s Jobs Act, the secretary said, “In recent weeks, Congress has failed to act on the full jobs agenda, so we will continue to do what we can.”

A new Rasmussen poll, however, indicates that most American voters oppose the Obamacare jobs plan, and believe the president should wait to enact the plan in order to reach an agreement with Congress. 63% of those polled said that the president should wait to work with Congress.

Once again, the effort on the part of the Obama administration is an incredible usurping of congressional power, and serves to illustrate how the wide banner of Obamacare will ultimately be used as a shield for many purposes that have little to do with the actual delivery of healthcare. All the more reason for Americans to demand that Obamacare be suspended entirely until the Supreme Court delivers its ruling next year.

Similarly, a CBS News poll regarding the debt talks, conducted with 810 random adults- 24% who gave their political affiliation as “Republican,” 35% “Democrat,” and 41% “Independent-” found that 43% approve of the president’s handling of the debt talks, 31% approve of the Democrats, and only 21% approve of the Republicans’ management of the negotiations. This survey also found that half of Republicans, 51%, disapprove of how members of their party in Congress are handling the negotiations. It should be noted that, while the poll did not obtain responses from equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, some Americans who identify themselves as “Republicans” are indeed disapproving of their congressional representatives- but because they believe they are not being principled enough.

Keep in mind that likely voters are not representative of the general population of telephone owners. Likely voters are generally more aware and informed about the issues, enough to commit to get out and vote.

Enter Rasmussen Reports, which, this week, finds that a generic Republican presidential candidate earns support from 47% of likely voters, as President Obama earns 41% of support. Similarly, for the second week in a row, Republicans were shown to have a six-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot, 44-38%. Unaffiliated voters prefer the Republican candidate by a 40% to 25% margin.

If “most” Americans disapprove of how the Republicans are handling the debt talks, why would “most” Americans support a generic Republican candidate for president or Congress?

Perhaps the “traditional” media would like to help along the notion that “most” Americans want “compromise,” not “rigidity,” or “stubbornness,” as epitomized, in their view, by conservative Republicans. Not that we have too many of those around.

The House Republicans have followed through with their promise to “Cut, Cap, and Balance.” Some Senate Republicans are more interested in compromise, rather than promise. “Compromise” sounds like a nice word, doesn’t it? Compromise is what you do with your ex-spouse about which day is yours with the kids. It’s what you do when the family discusses where to go on vacation. It’s what you and your spouse do to decide which relatives you’re going to visit for Christmas.

But you don’t “compromise” when a loved one is really sick and you need to decide the best treatment, not just anything that’s readily available, or, for that matter, everything that’s readily available. You do your homework, educate yourself, talk to the doctors, and make the best decision for your loved one. This is where we are now, with this ailing country.

Still think “compromise” is the way to go? Well, remember, there are several definitions of the word, “compromise.” The one most Democrats, some Republicans, and some media outlets are pushing is, “a settlement of differences in which each side makes concessions.”

But, the other meanings of “compromise” are: to reduce the quality, value, or degree of something; to impair by disease or injury.

I suggest that those Republicans, Democrats, and presidents who are pressing for a “let’s just get along” attitude as a way to put an end to the debt and deficit debates, are, indeed, compromising the ability of our free nation to remain in existence.

Want smarter, better-prepared kids, the teacher unions ask? Give us more money! (And get the “rich” to pay for it.)

That’s been the nation’s approach to public education for, oh, the last 50 years.

But after decades of increased education spending, it’s time to ask the obvious question: What kind of return are American taxpayers getting for all this “investment”?

The answer: not much.

According to a  new survey by Rasmussen Reports, a whopping 72% of taxpayers say they “are not getting a good return on what they spend on public education, and just one-in-three voters think spending more will make a difference.”

Americans are correctly discerning that simply spending more money will not improve educational outcomes.

Sure, throwing more dollars at education helps shore up the teacher unions’ Cadillac health insurance and pension plans. The money also helps cover automatic step raises for teachers. The problem is, none of those things help children read better or compute a calculus equation. Not one iota.

Think of it this way: If you owned stock in a company that was producing a lousy, inferior product that the public was unhappy with, would you buy more stock in that company?

If you’re a savvy investor, you’d demand new leadership that has a clear plan for producing a better product before you gave them a single dollar more.

Why shouldn’t the same principle apply to public schools?

For years, the teachers union and their surrogates in elective office could get away with guilting Americans into spending more on public education. It was for the children, after all!

It was a cozy setup. More education dollars meant more union dues and more union political contributions for Democrats (and the occasional incompetent Republican who bought into the teacher union propaganda). Everyone benefitted.  Except the students.

This Rasmussen poll indicates that Americans are catching onto this racket.

If the nation’s public schools were producing college-ready, workforce-ready graduates, there is little doubt that Americans would be willing to spend even more money on public education.

But our education system is graduating many students who are lacking in basic skills. The number of college freshmen who have to take remedial English and math classes just to get up to academic speed is an indictment of the entire system.  “Kids Aren’t Cars” told the story of a graduate who couldn’t read his own diploma.

If leaders of the education establishment want more of our money, they must show a commitment to quality. That means holding teachers accountable (merit pay, ending tenure) and providing students with greater choices in education (charter schools, online learning). Do those things, National Education Association and American Federation of Teachers, and then we’ll talk about more spending.

Until that happens, 72% of Americans understand that more school spending is simply throwing good money after bad.

Their latest pitch is that the highpoint of the GOP advance was the Scott Brown election and that, from here on, things will “improve slightly” for the Democrats.

Once again, Carville and Greenberg are totally misreading the public mood. Each time the Republican activists battle, they become stronger. Their cyber and grass roots grow deeper. The negatives that attach to so-called “moderate” Democratic incumbents increase. And each time Obama, Reid and Pelosi defy public opinion and use their majorities to ram through unpopular legislation, frustration and anger rise.

Were Obama’s ambitions to slacken, perhaps a cooling-off might eventuate. But soon the socialist financial takeover bill will come on the agenda, followed by amnesty for illegal immigrants, cap-and-trade and card-check unionization. Each bill will trigger its own mobilization of public opposition and add to the swelling coalition of opposition to Obama and his radical agenda.

And, all the while, the deficit will increase, interest rates will rise and unemployment will remain high.

Meanwhile, the political process will generate more and more strong Republican challengers. We have yet to see if former Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin or Dino Rossi of Washington state will emerge to challenge Sens. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Better House candidates will decide to capitalize on the momentum and will jump into the race and Republican donors will come out of hiding, their efforts catalyzed by the growing optimism about GOP chances.

Presaging the looming Republican sweep is the shift in the party ratings on various issues. Rasmussen has the Republicans ahead by 49-37 on the economy and 53-37 on healthcare. His likely-voter poll shows GOP leads on every major issue area: national security (49-37), Iraq (47-39), education (43-30), immigration (47-34), Social Security (48-36) and taxes (52-34).

When Republicans are winning issues like education, healthcare and Social Security — normally solidly Democratic issues — a sweep of unimaginable proportions is in the offing.

Will the rise in economic growth and job creation — if they continue — offset the Republican gains? Not very likely. Remember Bill Clinton’s 1994 experience. Even though the recession had officially ended in the quarter before he took office and he proudly pointed to the 5 million new jobs that had been created during the first two years of his presidency, Clinton got no bounce from the jobs issue or the economy. Even in the election of 1996, the economy was only marginally a source of strength for the Democratic president. It wasn’t until impeachment that the job growth that had been ongoing since he took office began to work heavily in his favor with the public. The hangover from a recession, and certainly from one as violent as this, lasts a long time. A very long time.

And all this assumes that things will, indeed, improve. Worries about inflation loom large and concerns that higher taxes and interest rates will trigger a new downturn also abound. As long as the deficit is as high as it is, there is no solid foundation for a sustained period of economic growth.

Finally, Obama is now responsible for healthcare in America. When premiums rise, it will be his fault. When coverage is denied, it will be on his watch.

When Medicare cuts kick in, it will be Obama who gets the blame.

Carville’s last book touted “40 more years of Democrats.” Now he dreams of a loss of “only” 25 seats in the House and “six or seven” senators. But these are pipe dreams. Republicans will gain more than 50 House seats and at least 10 in the Senate, enough to take control in both chambers. That’s reality.

This article originally appeared in The Hill.