Other than in South Carolina, 2012 GOP Primary turnout has been somewhat flat, or below that of 2008. Up +3 in Iowa and +6 in New Hampshire, it jumped to +35 in South Carolina but dropped to -14 in Florida. It’s possible that the last minute surge by Gingrich and his debate performances brought some added excitement to the race, turning out voters in South Carolina.

South Carolina, of course, was the strongest state for Newt Gingrich. In contrast, turnout among Republican identifiers was down for Mr. Romney’s two victories so far, as well as for his near-win in Iowa.

While it’s possible to argue that Romney’s negative advertising in Florida lowered turnout, along with the lack of a special real estate-related initiative – one was on the ballot in 2008 – a closer look at the numbers still points to a problem, especially for for Romney.

In both South Carolina and Florida, district-level turnout was more likely to trend up in districts that went to Newt, and flat, or down in ones that went for Romney. Once one looks at party identification, the trend gets even worse.

(more…)

In last week’s essay, we quoted Winston Churchill’s memorable statement that “Democracy is the worst system there is except for all the others.  We also restated Churchill’s observation by noting that we need to revise our delegate selection process and “the sooner the better.”

This observation is most particularly true for the nominating process of either party seeking to replace an incumbent President or the party of an incumbent who is not running for re-election.

With Iowa’s caucus and the New Hampshire primary finished, we should pause and look at a little history to illustrate how our current process, in effect, disenfranchises a majority of voters.

In 1952, Governor Adlai Stevenson of Illinois (perhaps one of that state’s last governors who did not go on to a career of making license plates)  was selected as the nominee at the Democratic convention through a series of state primaries and won the 1952 nomination at the Democratic convention on the third ballot.  Today, nominating conventions have no real purpose to them except for the public learning the nominee’s vice-presidential choice.  Bringing party professionals into the mix might spare us another Sarah Palin debacle.  Perhaps there is a role for smoke filled rooms, even though smoking would be banned!

In 1952 the process produced Senator John Sparkman as the democratic Vice-Presidential choice, an obvious sop to party bosses who did not trust the candidate Estes Kefauver, who went into the convention with the most pledged delegates. After the first two ballots Kefauver led but was overtaken on the third ballot when Stevenson was nominated.  The 1952 presidential race had earlier been thrown into disarray when President Truman announced that he would not seek re-election.  As we all know, General Eisenhower was elected President in November 1952. In 1956 Kefauver ran again and won the New Hampshire and Minnesota primary over Stevenson.  Although Stevenson was again nominated, this time around the party chose Kefauver as his running mate.

Fast forward to 1968 when President Johnson made his surprise announcement to a nation bitterly divided by the Vietnam War that he would not seek another term.  Senator Robert Kennedy won the California primary in June, defeating anti-war Sen. Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota.  Kennedy in his final words said “on to Chicago” before being shot by a lunatic, Sirhan Sirhan.  In the end, Senator Hubert Humphrey received the nomination, but lost the general election to Richard Nixon, who had stated in 1962, after losing the California governorship, that we wouldn’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.

(more…)

The proximity of the New Hampshire and South Carolina Republican primaries sets up an interesting discussion over the fate of right-to-work among the states. Indeed, after New Hampshire’s Republican voters cast their ballots for their party’s nominee for the general election, its legislators were already holding hearings to determine whether or not to transform New Hampshire into a right-to-work state. On the other hand, South Carolina’s status as right-to-work was made famous by President Obama’s assault on non-unionized jobs brought to the state by Boeing Co.

Remembering the old adage, “all politics is local,” Republican candidates weighed in on this topic during two consecutive debates in New Hampshire earlier this month. Mitt Romney claimed “Right-to-work legislation makes a lot of sense for New Hampshire.” In fact, it makes more sense for New Hampshire’s legislature to implement this policy than for most other local governments. How can the “Live Free or Die” state deny its workers the basic liberty to choose which organizations they associate with and contribute money to? Why would one of the first states to ratify our national Constitution continue to impose a policy that contradicts that document’s emphasis on freedom of assembly? In a nation of citizens who value their freedoms, right-to-work should be a common sense principle rather than a rare policy only enacted by 22 of 50 states. No one is doubting a worker’s right to join a union, so why must today’s liberals doubt their right to not join one?

Next Rick Perry asserted that a right-to-work labor market would make New Hampshire a “powerful magnet” for jobs in the region. Indeed since no other Northeastern state has adopted similar legislation yet, if New Hampshire became right-to-work, that state would be the first in the region to do so. As a result, any skilled workers in the area hesitant about union membership or businesses unable to meet the demands of unreasonable union bosses would flock to New Hampshire, providing a significant boost to its economy.

Although purporting to be the party that supports workers’ rights, the Democrats have risen in unified opposition to guaranteeing American laborers one of their most fundamental freedoms: the ability to choose whether or not to join a union. For instance, the Democratic Governor of New Hampshire, John Lynch, vetoed a previous right-to-work bill passed overwhelmingly by his state’s legislature.

(more…)

We have heard that the race for the Republican nomination is over. It isn’t. Not even by a long shot.

After Tuesday night, here’s the delegate count. Mitt Romney leads the pack with 20, followed by Rick Santorum at 12. Paul has 3, Huntsman has 2, and everyone else has zero. You need 1144 delegates to win, so every candidate has a long, long way to go.

Part of the issue here is how the delegates are apportioned. In the past, most of the primaries were winner-takes-all. This led to some odd incentives where candidates would try to win a specific state or primary and then use that to springboard on to the next state.

Now they are proportionate. This means that this race will go on for a long, long time. Candidates can lose first place in a race, but rack up enough second place delegates in other states to actually win the nomination contest.

The only winner-take-all primary is Florida, which has only 48 delegates. Florida’s delegates will be awarded by congressional district, so a candidate winning eight of Florida’s 25 districts could wind up with nearly as many delegates as a candidate winning 10 districts.

(more…)

With New Hampshire secure, Romney became the first Republican non-incumbent presidential candidate to win both Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s primaries.

“Tonight we made history,” Romney told cheering supporters before pivoting to a stinging denunciation of President Barack Obama. “The middle class has been crushed,” in the past three years, he said, “our debt is too high and our opportunities too few” – remarks that made clear he intends to be viewed as the party’s nominee in waiting after only two contests (Associated Press).

New Hampshire was a no-contest, really, as Romney’s ground game and support was too much for any candidate to overcome. Ron Paul and John Huntsman each made hardy efforts in the state but were unable to effectively challenge Romney. Since Huntsman chose New Hampshire to make his stand and finished third, it’s hard to see the wisdom of staying in. If he was unable to convince New Hampshire, there’s no way he can convince the folks in South Carolina. (more…)

Polls have now closed everywhere in New Hampshire. Check BigGovernment throughout the night for results and analysis.

Alex Marlow, Managing Editor, Breitbart.com:

(more…)

In an interview today with Larry O’Connor of Breitbart.tv, Governor John Sununu attacked Newt Gingrich and his backers for being anti-capitalist. Newt Gingrich has “gone anti-free enterprise,” Sununu told O’Connor.

“What I’m shocked at is someone like Mr. [Sheldon] Adelson, who is a smart, free-enterprise guy” using his money to attack free-enterprise. “Those attacks… are on the investment community of this country.” Newt’s “defining himself in the Obama corner.” (Sheldon Adelson is one of America’s richest men and a casino mogul in Las Vegas.)

Gingrich and Sununu have long disliked each other, with Sununu calling Gingrich “not stable” in early December. Conservatives have often bristled at Sununu’s politics. The former governor-turned white house chief of staff had a controversial tenure that led to him getting George H.W. Bush to appoint David Souter to the Supreme Court.

(more…)

With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP primary voters say they still might change their mind.

Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is at 10 percent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador Jon Huntsman. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can’t be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

There is almost no gender gap in the primary selections.

(more…)

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) Sunday’s debate began much the same way as Saturday night’s, with Gingrich saying Romney was a “relatively timid Massachusetts moderate” whose state ranked fourth from the bottom in job creation when he was governor.

But confronted with one of his campaign leaflets declaring Romney to be unelectable against President Barack Obama, Gingrich hedged. “I think he’ll have a very hard time getting elected.”

Romney said he had created more jobs in one state than Obama has in the entire country, adding that it was important to replace “a lifetime politician” like the president with a different type of leader.

(more…)

MANCHESTER, N.H.- Mitt Romney’s support has dropped for the fourth day in a row in the Suffolk University daily tracking poll of New Hampshire voters.

Romney had 35 percent, down from 39 percent in Saturday’s poll.

Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are seeing gains.

(more…)

Unveiling what may become a central theme of his presidential campaign, Gov. Mitt Romney on Thursday blasted President Barack Obama’s controversial decision to circumnavigate congressional approval of his three appointments to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) as yet another example that Obama is a “crony capitalist” and “jobs killer.”

At an event in Salem, New Hampshire, Mr. Romney laid out his case that Mr. Obama uses political appointments to reward his supporters—in this case Big Labor—and political cronies:

Yesterday the president did one more thing, an extraordinary thing, that convinces anybody who will go elsewhere that maybe they ought to go elsewhere. And that is that he said “I ought to put more labor stooges on the National Labor Relations Board.”

Mr. Obama’s decision to appoint the controversial NLRB nominees was hailed by liberal Democrats like Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who said “we’re glad that the President took the lead, went out there, it was bold and made the appointments.”

Mr. Romney, however, saw Mr. Obama’s NLRB recess appointments as further evidence of crony capitalism: (more…)

Mike Flynn, Editor Big Government:

Little known fact; during the last GOP debate in Iowa, the RNC held their holiday party at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC. There weren’t any TVs among the open bars. So, no one at the RNC was actually watching the debate among candidates vying to be the standard-bearer of the party. Perhaps the RNC has throw parties during all of these debates. How else to explain its continuing acquiescence in letting the legacy media pay inquisitors to its nominees? The GOP field actually did well combatting some of silliness from Diane Sawyer, Snuffleupagas and some guy we’ll never hear from again. But, the American public was short-changed in getting 1 hour and 41 minutes (!) of chatter on issues that almost no one outside of the hard left cares about. (2 questions on the economy…kinda?) Et tu RNC?

The obvious big winner of the night was Mitt Romney. Inexplicably, he largely escaped criticism from his fellow nominees. Weirder still, as Romney is vulnerable to at least 25 attacks from the right, is the fact that Newt, et al decided to attack him from the left. Being in the same room as Snuffleupagas will do that to you I guess.

The other big winner was Ron Paul. One would have thought he were the front-runner given the attention he received from the moderator and other nominees. Santorum, inexplicably finding himself in the big leagues, reverted to form and acted like a candidate who is simply trying to get attention. His initial statement that America doesn’t need a CEO or manager, but a leader is frankly baffling. I think it speaks to a personal insecurity that he has virtually no private sector experience and no executive experience. Making awesome speeches on the House or Senate floor is not a leader. He was like a player called up to the majors who whiffed at every at-bat. Santomentum is fading.

Newt seemed neutered. He did a great professorial turn at times and reminded me how great he is in this medium, but he need to draw distinctions. He didn’t.

Perry did well, but he was mostly irrelevant tonight. He started with a great theme about Washington insiders, but pulled his punches in the end. He didn’t screw up, but he needs to quickly put points on the board.

Huntsman spoke Chinese.

Whatever happens in November, whomever at the RNC approved these debate formats needs to find a new line of work.

Alex Marlow, Managing Editor, Breitbart.com:

(more…)

(Reuters) – The knives will come out at back-to-back debates this weekend as Republican presidential hopefuls frantically jockey for position days before New Hampshire’s key primary.

Debates are once again the main show in the 2012 race after candidates spent two weeks on the road campaigning in coffee shops and pizza places through Iowa and now, New Hampshire.

The six contenders will go at it twice within 12 hours, first on Saturday night and then again on Sunday morning. It is their last, best chance to sway large numbers of voters with New Hampshire set to vote on Tuesday.

(more…)

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in the Jan. 10 New Hampshire Republican primary, according to three new polls released Friday that show Romney could become the first nonincumbent to sweep the first two GOP nominating contests in the modern campaign calendar.

The three polls all show Romney—who currently holds a slender lead in Iowa—blowing out the competition next week in his adopted home state, while former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., has received only a modest bump following his surprising surge to a virtual tie for first place in Iowa on Tuesday. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is in second place in each of the three surveys, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is fading. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is staking his entire primary campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State, trails badly in each of the polls.

• Suffolk University in Boston, which has been conducting a two-day tracking poll for Boston-based WHDH-TV since Dec. 30, released its first poll conducted entirely after the Iowa caucuses. The latest results—compiled from interviews with likely primary voters on Wednesday and Thursday—show Romney leading Paul, 40 percent to 17 percent. Santorum runs third, at 11 percent, while Gingrich is fourth, at 9 percent. Huntsman is at 8 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry earns just 1 percent of the vote.

(more…)

Rick Santorum greets voters in New Hampshire (Source: Yahoo News)

South Carolina is emerging as the key battleground in the Republican primary for 2012–and the campaigns are accelerating their ad buys in the state.

Since his success in Iowa, Rick Santorum has raised $2 million in two days, $250,000 of it online. Santorum is using the money for a 1,000-point television ad buy in South Carolina–a very significant campaign, aiming, generally, to ensure that the targeted audience sees the ad ten times. (Air time is cheaper in South Carolina than in Iowa or New Hampshire, where the same ad buy would be more expensive.)

When Santorum enters the TV ad market, he’ll find he’s got competition. According to data obtained by Big Government, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry have purchased $295,273, $486,118, and $223,992, respectively, worth of television ads thus far. (SuperPACs supporting Romney and Paul have booked $147,000 and $185,000 respectively. Another SuperPAC supporting Romney spent $1.1 million last month. A SuperPAC supporting Santorum is preparing a significant ad buy of its own.)

There’s little other data to guide predictions in South Carolina: prior to last night, here had not been a poll reported from South Carolina since December 18, 2011–fully eighteen days prior. That is an eternity in this election cycle. Eighteen days before the Iowa caucuses, Gingrich was leading them. On caucus night, he was in a distant fourth place. Such is the fluidity of polling in this presidential campaign.

The Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling, had Romney leading by ten points in South Carolina last night, on its first night of polling.  Remember, though, that this was the same polling firm that predicted Ron Paul would win the Iowa caucuses. It routinely overstates moderate Republican support and discounts conservative Republican support. Still, if that ten points holds, the race is over.

Rasmussen’s numbers–just out this morning–are a more optimistic for Santorum, and reflect his new status as the top contender to challenge Romney. With Romney at 27 percent, Santorum at 24 percent, and Gingrich at 13 percent, the new numbers suggest a significant shift in the race. Perry is a distant fifth (behind Ron Paul) at 5 percent. (more…)

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) – Mitt Romney admits his eight-vote Iowa caucus victory was “pretty narrow” but says he’s got more staying power than runners-up Rick Santorum and Ron Paul or his other rivals for the Republican presidential nomination.

Heading off to New Hampshire, where Romney holds a healthy lead in the polls, the former Massachusetts governor predicts a long road to the nomination. Romney says his national campaign team and strong fundraising will set him apart from the pack.

(more…)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

Download Podcast | iTunes | Podcast Feed

On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Scott Conroy from Real Clear Politics to discuss tonight’s Iowa caucuses, whether Santorum’s surge could lead to surprising win, and how Iowa’s results could impact the rest of the race.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

An Iowa Caucus Primer: How the Process Works
Iowa: Romney Leads, Santorum Rises, Steve King Weighs Choice
Republican White House hopefuls in last Iowa blitz
Iowa Win Unlikely to Make Romney Inevitable
Scott Conroy at Real Clear Politics

Follow Brad on Twitter
Follow Ben on Twitter
Follow Scott on Twitter

Subscribe to The Transom

The hosts and guests of Coffee and Markets speak only for ourselves, not any clients or employers.

In heaping scorn on Mitt Romney’s presidential prospects, George F. Will points to Romney’s poor record at winning votes. He points out that Romney has won 5 out of 22 elections in which he has run, making a batting average of .227.

Will could have gone further. He doesn’t mention that Romney has never won a primary in the South where the Republican party is at its strongest, and where the country as a whole is moving. Thanks to shifting demographics, the South recently picked up 7 new electoral delegates. That is good news for Republican candidates come the general election, but first they must survive the South’s primary contests.

As it appears that there will be no definitive winner in either Iowa or New Hampshire, it is in the South where the contest will be decided. Historically, South Carolina has been the tie-breaker. In 1980, South Carolina picked Reagan over George H.W. Bush. In 2008, it picked McCain over Huckabee.

Neither McCain nor Huckabee are running this time around, which gives Mitt Romney an opening. But Romney didn’t even bother campaigning there in 2008, preferring the Nevada caucuses instead, so it remains to be seen how successful he will be in the “first in the South” primary.

South Carolina's Gov. Nikki Haley supports Mitt Romney (Photo: wtlx.com)

But now Romney is giving it a try. To be viable in South Carolina, Romney needs endorsements to knock Newt Gingrich down from the lead he enjoys in the polls. In comes Tea Party-backed Governor Nikki Haley to the rescue, who is stumping for Romney all over the Palmetto state. It remains to be seen how influential her endorsement really is. Haley’s support among South Carolinians has imploded since she was elected. Only 35% of voters approve of the job she is doing, according to a recent poll, and Romney has received under thirty percent of Republican support in every poll taken in South Carolina. (more…)

Mitt Romney currently maintains a long-standing lead in New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, 17 point ahead of Newt Gingrich and 18 points to Ron Paul. This is not surprising, as Romney has lived in New Hampshire for the last four years. At this time in the 2008, campaign Romney similarly had a lead, although not as pronounced, and went on to lose to John McCain 38%-32%. Could a similar upset be awaiting Romney in this cycle as well?

New Hampshire is the first of 21 open caucus or primary states in this Republican election cycle; meaning you do not have to be a registered Republican in order to vote in the primary. Thus, the swell of votes from independents, which make up 42% of state voters, can turn the tide for a lackluster campaign in New Hampshire.

In 2008, more than 520,000 people cast their ballot in either the Democrat or Republican primary. More than 210,000 of those votes were by independents. It was, in fact, independents who secured a victory for John McCain; McCain received a smaller share of Republican votes than Mitt Romney. Independent voters overwhelmingly supported John McCain to Mitt Romney (40% to 27%) and Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton (41% to 31%). Barack Obama only lost the New Hampshire primary by 2.5%.

(more…)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

Download Podcast | iTunes | Podcast Feed

On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech discuss the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Newt Gingrich’s meteoric rise to become the “not Mitt,” and who Ben thinks will be the nominee.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

Romney’s role: The Hillary Clinton of 2012?
Bret Baier: Mitt Romney called questions ‘uncalled for’
Gallup Daily: Obama Job Approval
If Newt trips, Paul could steal Iowa
Bright light but no clarity in New Hampshire
The South is up for grabs

Follow Brad on Twitter
Follow Ben on Twitter

Subscribe to The Transom

The hosts and guests of Coffee and Markets speak only for ourselves, not any clients or employers.