Romney greets a voter in Maine

Mitt Romney has now decisively won (or statically tied) in four states that went for Obama in 2008: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada. He will assuredly win in Colorado and Arizona–two other parts of the Mormon corridor–and in Michigan, where he is a favored son.

And yet all but Arizona (which John McCain, a carpet bagger, barely held) went to Barack Obama in 2008. What does this mean?  For Republican primaries, this is very odd. No presidential candidate in American history has ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina.

In Nevada, Romney won among nearly every group he was expected to (only 9 percent of Mormons voted against him) and did nicely among groups he wasn’t expected to (the Tea Partiers and evangelicals). It may well be that the evangelicals and Tea Parties that voted against him in Iowa and South Carolina were an aberration.

His challenge, though, will be to win in a red state and he hasn’t done it and the emerging narrative of the 2012 GOP race is this: Will Romney win 1144 delegates before the convention in Tampa or will he have to fight it out at the convention?

To be sure, that’s a long way out. Romney currently leads the delegate count by 50, to Gingrich’s 28, Santorum’s 8, and Paul’s 7.

None of the races tomorrow will settle this issue, but they will bring us one step closer to a nominee.

• In Colorado, Romney is expected to cruise easily to a victory, according to the polling. Romney’s at 45% to 25% for Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 13% for Paul. If Romney wins there in 2012, it will reverse a trend of blue-state voters. Interestingly, Romney’s Mormonism is actually an asset in these Mountain West states because pretty much the only group fired up about him are his co-religionists.

• Minnesota, also caucusing Tuesday, looks like a toss up with each of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul, according to Public Policy Polling. Though Santorum nominally leads, I would wager that Romney will win in Minnesota with the more conservative districts split between Gingrich and Santorum.  Public Policy Polling has tended to have a hard time polling caucuses. Expect Romney’s organization to be up against Santorum’s diehards. It’s a rematch, in other words, of Iowa.

• The Maine caucuses began on Saturday and will end on Friday. Romney is expected to win. He won last time by 30%+, according to The New York Times.  The contest for distant second is largely between Paul and Gingrich. Just to be sure he’ll win, Romney has visited Maine 10 times since 2008.

LAS VEGAS (AP) – Republican front-runner Mitt Romney cruised to victory in the Nevada caucuses Saturday night, notching a second straight triumph over a field of presidential rivals suddenly struggling to keep pace.

The former Massachusetts governor held a double-digit lead over his nearest pursuer as the totals mounted in a state where fellow Mormons accounted for roughly a quarter of all caucus-goers.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul vied for a distant second.

Read more at the Associated Press.

I have watched Ron Paul for a very long time and one trend I see over and over is the split that emerges between people of roughly under the age of 40 and those who are older when his name is mentioned. I have no polling data to back this up, but young people seem to like Ron Paul and older people seem not to.

This is by no means uniform. I know plenty of older folks who love the good doctor and plenty of young people who do not like him, but generally the above statement holds I think. Why is this?

Fundamentally I believe it comes down to faith in the markets and whether or not one is playing for the future, or if one is clinging to the past.

Young people have much to lose in the economic quagmire we find ourselves in, namely their future. They recognize that times have changed, that the old economic regime is corrupt, and in order to get things going in any real way (not government stimulated) fundamental reforms must be implemented. Many, including myself would embrace a gold standard or a standard based on a basket of commodities. This is a radical departure from the Fed centered fiat currency regime. It would disrupt the current economic order, but a reset is needed and many young people recognize that it is vital that we head in this direction before it is too late. The economic hubris of the 20th century has come home to roost. We would like a real economy.

Older people understandably believe they have much to lose with a reality based economic system(I know this is a loaded term) such as the one Ron Paul advocates. In fairness they likely do.

If one has spent a lifetime compiling paper currency, amassing sums large and small in IRAs and retirement plans, a gold centered revolution could be pretty scary. For many people, especially those who are just now retiring, they have lived their entire lives with the understanding that the money they have saved will provide for their future. It’s a pretty reasonable assumption.

They, and even many long committed “conservatives” believe in the current system. The truth is, they like a large state. They like Social Security, and indeed many rely on it (which makes economic sense if one believes that the current New Deal based system is sustainable and they had always been told that it was.)

The baby boomers are also children of the Cold War where a massive military in the face of the Soviet threat seemed to, and arguably did, make sense. A large state is deeply engrained in the grey matter of the older generation and this is completely understandable.

However even older people must adapt when the alternative is catastrophe.

We are not yet at the point where a majority of thinking people understand the extent of the economic challenges that lay before us. My sense is that many smart older people know that there is much that is wrong, and that something must be done, but that the regime to which they have given so much of their lives can still be saved without real change. In fact many bristle at the thought. Ron Paul is an agent of change, and so they bristle at Dr. Paul.

Aside from the new economic paradigm Ron Paul introduces, something that is at least equally as scary for some is Ron Paul’s foreign policy stance. The thought that the United States should dominate the world, and that it would be dangerous for it not to, runs deep in the baby boomer generation.

For a generation that it is said to not only recognized the folly of Vietnam but brought an end to it, the boomers seem pretty keen on keeping the war machine going. The concept of the military as “big government” is lost on many baby boomer conservatives.

It doesn’t seem lost on many active duty members of the military however, who have given more to Ron Paul than to any other presidential candidate in this election cycle. But most of those active duty folks are young.

What I write here is probably moot of course. It looks like the establishment has gotten Mitt-”I don’t worry about the poor” -Romney, just as it wanted. But Ron Paul will collect enough delegates to make noise at the convention that is for sure.

Also, though the Republican establishment may feel that it has effectively put down the libertarian uprising, liberty oriented Republicans are the future if the GOP wishes to remain viable.

The libertarians are young, committed, information savvy, economically correct, and they are going to see their time in the sun like it or not.

The smartest, most innovative political thinkers on what is called the “right” aren’t in the Romeny, or Gingrich camp, they are in the Ron Paul camp. And the GOP knows it. But the party will fight this reality every step of the way. The real question is whether the Dick Cheney types would rather commit party suicide than capitulate to the New Wave. We’ll see.

Just as the Goldwater Republicans overtook the Rockefeller Republicans, the Ron Paul Republicans will take things further down the freedom path as they eclipse the Bushies.

Time may not have come today, but it is coming.

This article was originally posted at AgainstCronyCapitalism.org.

Being a caucus neophyte, I approached the matter gingerly.  I called the Clark County Republican Party office seeking guidance.  What happens at a caucus?  How long does it run?  What’s the procedure?  No one possessed definitive answers to these complex questions, but we were able to determine that folks in my precinct were caucusing at a nearby High School.  The doors opened at 8:00 AM, with the caucus itself slated to start at 9:00.  Anyone could speak on behalf of any candidate; each speaker would have two minutes.  Beyond that, things got a little vague.  I pre-registered on line “to avoid the crowds” of caucus day.

I arrived at Valley High School at 9:00 AM, impressed to see a sizable packed parking lot.  Perhaps these are the political activists I hear so much about, I thought.  Great to see how many of them show up early on a Saturday morning.  But for a group of activists, the lot seemed singularly inactive.  Where were the Paulistas, gesticulating wildly to emphasize that the Fed is our enemy, while Iran is not?  Where were the Romney and Gingrich surrogates deflating each other’s tires?  Where were Santorum’s nattily-dressed minions?  Where were the folks waving Perry and Bachmann signs, refusing to admit that their party was over?  Two helpful teenagers provided the answers: the caucus was on the other side of campus.  The folks parked in this lot were there for—get this—Valley High School.

I dutifully drove around the block to find the much smaller but equally pacific lot bearing two signs marked “Caucus here,” one sign for Ron Paul, and a TV truck.  I entered the school cafeteria, where a helpful volunteer directed me to the table for pre-registrants.  I surveyed the scene quickly: Fifty or so small tables, broken into groups, and perhaps two hundred people.  No politicking as far as I could tell, no speechifying, just a room full of Americans out enjoying their morning.  The young woman who checked me informed me that my precinct was convening in the gym.  I thanked her for the directions.  Then I told her that it was my first caucus, and asked her what the procedure was.  “It’s my first caucus, too,” she said.  “So I don’t know.”  I thanked her again and headed to the gym.

I found groups of people sitting either in the bleachers or in chairs on the gym floor.  Each group had a sign with a four-digit number—a precinct number, I presumed.  I found my precinct.  A gentleman with a list—the precinct captain, I guessed—checked me in.  I told him that it was my first caucus, and asked him what to expect.  “It’s my first caucus, too,” he said, “but I think that pretty soon we get to vote.”  I thanked him for the information and struck up a conversation with some of the other voters.

A man named Steve wandered by.  He wore a T-shirt with what appeared to be some sort of caucus logo and carried a clipboard, so I sensed an air of authority.  “How many voters do you have?” he asked.  “Fourteen,” said our captain, forgetting to count himself.  Steve counted out fourteen blue ballots.  “You get eight delegates and one alternate,” he said, then ran off to the next precinct.

Our captain distributed the ballots, each of which bore the names of the four remaining GOP candidates.  “Now we have to select eight delegates and an alternate,” he announced.  “Then we get to vote for President.”  “Why don’t we just see who is not interested?” suggested the man to my right.  I looked around to see if, perhaps, I might make a good delegate.  I realized that I was the youngest voter in the precinct, likely by at least a decade (I’m 48), but reasoned that I could nevertheless represent the group admirably if chosen to do so.

“I’m not sure that I want to go to Tampa during the summer,” one voter mused.  “Oh,” said our captain.  “I don’t think we’re electing delegates for the national convention.  Are we?  Does anyone know?”  “I would imagine that there’s some sort of state thing,” someone suggested.  We agreed that that sounded right.  “Does anyone know when that is?  Or where?”  “Probably around here somewhere,” someone suggested, “or maybe Carson City.”  “My vote would be Chicago,” our captain offered, but conceding that such a venue was unlikely, he set off to ask some questions.  He returned.  “Someone says they think its in Reno, but they’re not sure when,” he announced to the group.

I decided that it was time to pull up a browser on my iPhone.  Apparently, between today’s caucuses and the national convention, the Nevada Republican Party plans to hold a series of county conventions—sometime tentatively scheduled to fall between March 10 and March 17 at places to be determined—and a state convention in Reno in May.  I suggested that perhaps we were selecting delegates to the Clark County convention.  Everyone agreed that my analysis seemed plausible, but our captain went to find Steve to verify this new information.

He returned with answers.  We were tasked with selecting delegates for the county convention, to be held some time in March somewhere in Clark County.  Then we could vote for President.  “What do the delegates do?” someone asked.  “Are they bound by our votes for President?”  “Is there any relationship between our votes for President and delegate?”  “Are we supposed to support delegates who share our preferences for President?”  Our captain looked perplexed.  He set out once more in search of Steve.  He returned.  Delegates to the county conventions get to vote on delegates to the state convention, and on a platform, he announced.

“Does any of that have anything to do with our presidential votes?” someone asked.  “Well, those are distributed proportionally,” someone else answered.  We collectively deemed this answer sufficient, marked our X’s on our blue ballots, and handed them back to our captain.  He sealed them in an envelope and put check marks near those of us who had agreed to serve as delegates.  “Now what?”  someone asked.  “I think we’re done,” said our captain.  We all wandered off.

I surveyed the broader scene again, this time from my vantage point as an experienced caucus-goer and a freshly minted delegate to the Clark County Republican convention.  I was pleased to note that I was not the youngest person in the room, though everyone younger did seem to be either wearing a volunteer’s badge or providing mobility assistance to someone in need.  Very definitely not the crowd you see at Lavo, I thought.

I found myself standing next to a guy who appeared to be about my age—one of three men in the room wearing a suit.  “Are you a reporter?” he asked me.  “No,” I said.  “Just a voter.  But I do blog from time to time.”  “Same thing, these days,” he said.  “Are you a reporter?” I asked.  “Yes,” he said.  “For whom?” I asked.  “From Israel,” he said, starting to edge away from me.  “For Israel Hayom.  I cover elections all over the world.  Egypt.  Tunisia.”  I laughed.  “Very different,” he said.  “Yes,” I agreed.  “No one gets shot here.”  He nodded.  “This is a very good thing,” he said, completing his escape.

I realized that I must have wandered into some unmarked press area, because the one other obvious reporter in the room—the one with the TV truck and camera from the local NBC affiliate—was  interviewing another man in a suit.  I overheard the interviewee’s bold prediction that Romney would win Nevada and then take the nomination.  The reporter took this news in stride.  With his interview concluded he sat back down and struck a pose that seemed to say don’t bother me.  No one did.

I determined that I had learned all that I could learn, and that it was time to leave.  As I turned to go, I saw Steve, standing still behind a table.  I seized the opening.  “So I think I’m a delegate, but I’m not sure what comes next,” I said.  “Did you fill out one of these forms?” he asked, waving a form at me.  “No,” I said.  “But none of us did.  We just put check marks near the names of folks who agreed to be delegates.”  He looked concerned.  “Would you like me to fill out a form?” I offered.  “No,” he said.  “Just give me your name.”  I did.  He wrote it on a yellow post-it note.  “Would you like my e-mail address?” I asked.  “Yes,” he said.  “That would be a good idea.”  He handed me the post-it note.  I jotted down my e-mail address and handed it back.  He folded it in half and put it in his pocket.  “We’ll let you know,” he said, and ran off.

I headed back to the parking lot.  Looked my watch.  The whole thing had taken about an hour.  Grassroots democracy in action, I thought.  And no one got shot.  Gotta love it.

How does the Nevada Caucus work?
As most caucuses work, you do not do a direct vote for a candidate like primaries. The caucus has 3 levels: The precinct, the county convention and finally the state convention. Overall Nevada has 33 Democratic delegates and 34 Republican delegates.

Nevada Precinct Caucuses

This is where any registered voter can participate. [Ed: Only registered Republicans can vote in the Nevada GOP caucus.] The precinct voting is a very informal proceeding. It starts with the voters gathered into preference groups for each candidate. A simple head count is taken for each precinct. It takes a minimum of 15 percent in each precinct for a candidate to be viable. If a candidate’s preference group is not viable, they can choose to caucus with another group (pick another candidate), or be uncommitted. There is time for each viable candidate’s group to try to talk the unviable candidates voters into choosing their candidate. This is way many times a candidate will seem to have not received any votes, though the actually may have originally. Each precinct then elects a representative (delegate) to move on to the county convention.

Nevada County Convention
Delegates to the county convention were then selected amongst the candidate groups. A similar process occurred at the county convention. Although they file statements of support for their chosen candidate, all delegates are technically unbound until the state convention, otherwise the may change their vote. In some cases the candidate originally chosen may have dropped out of the race.

Nevada State Convention
There is no formal system of allocating delegates to presidential candidates at the state convention for the Republicans while the Democrats delegates to the state convention are chosen by vote at the county convention.

From KGOAM:

Caucus times will vary across the state, but most will take place between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. PT. There is one evening caucus scheduled at 7 p.m. in Clark County for those voters who cannot caucus during the day because of religious reasons.

LAS VEGAS (AP) – In a surprise twist, Donald Trump planned to endorse Mitt Romney—not Newt Gingrich—for the Republican presidential nomination Thursday, three Republican officials told The Associated Press. Gingrich’s camp had been so confident of winning the endorsement that it had leaked that Trump would support the former House speaker.

Trump was set to make the announcement in Las Vegas at the luxury hotel bearing his name, with Romney in attendance. Nevada holds its presidential caucuses on Saturday.

The GOP officials requested anonymity to speak ahead of Trump’s announcement.

Gingrich’s camp was so confident of Trump’s endorsement that those close to the former House speaker confirmed it Wednesday night for news organizations, including the AP. One of those officials said Trump had “sent signals” to Gingrich that he would support him. That individual declined Thursday to elaborate on what those signals were.

On a tour of a Las Vegas manufacturing facility Thursday, Gingrich made clear he wasn’t getting Trump’s backing.

“No,” the former House speaker replied when asked if he was expecting Trump’s endorsement. He added that he was amazed at the attention Trump was getting.

The real estate mogul and reality TV show host is known for being unpredictable and the circus-like atmosphere surrounding the planned endorsement almost seemed designed to gin up interest in the event.

Read more at The Associated Press

(Reuters) – Businessman and reality TV personality Donald Trump will endorse former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, U.S. media reported on Wednesday.

Sources close to the Gingrich campaign confirmed Trump would endorse Gingrich, according to several television and newspaper reports.

Trump’s announcement would come on Thursday, two days before the Republican caucus in Nevada, the next state in the party’s presidential nominating contest, the reports said.

A spokesman for the Gingrich campaign was not immediately available for comment.

An adviser to Trump said earlier on Wednesday that Trump planned to make major announcement in Las Vegas on Thursday about the presidential race.

Read more at Reuters