With 36 percent of Florida Republican likely primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead three weeks before the nation’s first big-state presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. But 54 percent of GOP primary voters say they still might change their mind.

Twelve points back in the Republican pack is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 24 percent, followed by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum with 16 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul is at 10 percent with 5 percent for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 2 percent for former ambassador Jon Huntsman. This first look at likely primary voters, a more select group, can’t be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

There is almost no gender gap in the primary selections.

“Gov. Mitt Romney has a double-digit lead in Florida among likely primary voters. But the primary is three weeks away and the results from New Hampshire and South Carolina could shake things up in the Sunshine State,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “With more than half of voters saying they might change their minds and more than 50 percent of them backing candidates perceived as more conservative, Romney could be vulnerable if those voters settle on one candidate.”

Read more at Quinnipiac University.

When asked to name their top issue, 50% of likely voters names the economy or employment/jobs. Health care was the top issue for 27% while 13% listed government spending and deficits.

Likely voters split on both their personal opinion of President Obama and his job performance. 41% of likely voters had a favorable opinion of President Obama and the same number had an unfavorable opinion. 48% approved of his job performance and the same number disapproved. 38% approved the job Democrats were doing in Congress (57% disapproved) while only 33% approved of the job Republicans were doing in Congress (58% disapproved).

The poll also finds very strong headwinds for the health care reform legislation currently under consideration. The poll asked the following question, which was recently tested by the Washington Post:

Would you favor or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to   compete with private health insurance plans? 

 Total Favor: 45%

Total Oppose: 48% 

The poll then asked:

Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose President Obama’s health care reform plan?

Total Favor: 39%

Total Oppose: 51%

 The poll was conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates. It was conducted October 27-29 of 1,000 voters who said they were likely to vote in 2010.

The poll asked many more questions on the health reform proposals. Check back later today for those results. Also, the poll added an oversample of 400 likely voters in BOTH the 13 Senate and 47 House races ranked most competitive by the Cook Report. Results in those are interesting. Check back for those and the full top-line results as well.