Mitt Romney currently maintains a long-standing lead in New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, 17 point ahead of Newt Gingrich and 18 points to Ron Paul. This is not surprising, as Romney has lived in New Hampshire for the last four years. At this time in the 2008, campaign Romney similarly had a lead, although not as pronounced, and went on to lose to John McCain 38%-32%. Could a similar upset be awaiting Romney in this cycle as well?

New Hampshire is the first of 21 open caucus or primary states in this Republican election cycle; meaning you do not have to be a registered Republican in order to vote in the primary. Thus, the swell of votes from independents, which make up 42% of state voters, can turn the tide for a lackluster campaign in New Hampshire.

In 2008, more than 520,000 people cast their ballot in either the Democrat or Republican primary. More than 210,000 of those votes were by independents. It was, in fact, independents who secured a victory for John McCain; McCain received a smaller share of Republican votes than Mitt Romney. Independent voters overwhelmingly supported John McCain to Mitt Romney (40% to 27%) and Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton (41% to 31%). Barack Obama only lost the New Hampshire primary by 2.5%.

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From Gallup:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ concerns about the threat of big government continue to dwarf those about big business and big labor, and by an even larger margin now than in March 2009. The 64% of Americans who say big government will be the biggest threat to the country is just one percentage point shy of the record high, while the 26% who say big business is down from the 32% recorded during the recession. Relatively few name big labor as the greatest threat.

Historically, Americans have always been more concerned about big government than big business or big labor in response to this trend question dating back to 1965. Concerns about big business surged to a high of 38% in 2002, after the large-scale accounting scandals at Enron and WorldCom. An all-time-high 65% of Americans named big government as the greatest threat in 1999 and 2000. Worries about big labor have declined significantly over the years, from a high of 29% in 1965 to the 8% to 11% range over the past decade and a half.

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From Investors Business Daily:

President Obama faces head winds from independents, an important voting bloc for re-election in 2012. Many of them think well of him personally, but they are disenchanted. They don’t like his policies, and they see him as inexperienced.

And most daunting of all for the incumbent, only 38% of independents think he deserves to be re-elected, with 53% feeling that someone new deserves a chance.

These are key findings from an IBD/TIPP poll conducted in early September.

Independents are particularly harsh in their view of the president’s economic stewardship. Job losses have hurt independent households, and jobs will be their primary concern when they pull the lever in 2012.

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Welcome to Ask a Libertarian with Reason’s Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch. They are the authors of the new book The Declaration of Independents: How Libertarian Politics Can Fix What’s Wrong With America.

Go to http://declaration2011.com to purchase, read reviews, find event dates, and more.

On June 15, 2011 Gillespie and Welch used short, rapid-fire videos to answer dozens of reader questions submitted via email, Twitter, Facebook, and Reason.com. In this episode, they answer the question:

“Why ask a libertarian? Why now?”

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The Scott Brown revolution is alive and well in Massachusetts.

Tuesday night, January 26th at 7:00 when most people would like to be home relaxing after work, almost 500 average citizens from Massachusetts packed a convention hall in the Boston suburb of Braintree. They shared some common interests. They’re either running for office or helping someone else run for office. Some of them are running for federal or state offices, some for seats in local towns and cities and some for school boards. The one sentiment they share is clear: They’ve had enough.

A capacity crowd!

The event they showed up for was a “candidate school” offered by Boston talk radio host Michael Graham of 96.9 WTKK, a man the Boston Phoenix dubbed “Boston’s maestro of conservative controversies.” In between his tenure at WTKK and a career in stand-up comedy, Graham ran political campaigns. Today, he is sharing his knowledge with the citizens of the Bay State and encouraging them to participate in the system.

Attendees included people like Francis McLaughlin, a retired Boston fire fighter and registered Republican since 1975. McLaughlin is running for the Massachusetts House of Representatives for specific reasons:

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