In a recent column for the Wall Street Journal, I explained why Mitt Romney’s interest in a value-added tax is deeply troubling.

One of my key points was that the VAT is a money machine for big government.

But don’t believe me. Look at Japan, where the politicians see increases in the VAT as a way of financing a much larger burden of government spending. Here’s some of what is being reported by Bloomberg.

Noda reshuffled his cabinet last week, aiming to win support for doubling Japan’s 5 percent national sales tax by 2015… Japan’s finances are “getting worse and worse every day, every second,” Takahira Ogawa, Singapore-based director of sovereign ratings at S&P… Japan’s aging population is also weighing on Noda’s struggle to achieve fiscal health. Social-security expenses have more than doubled in two decades and will account for 52 percent of general spending for the year starting in April, according to a budget proposal the cabinet approved last month.

The key point in this excerpt is that the VAT is a substitute for entitlement reform. Without the VAT, politicians might actually reform the welfare state. But because of the VAT, they want to take the easy (but extremely destructive) route and boost the tax burden.

This is why I get so agitated about the threat of a VAT in America, as illustrated by this recent appearance on Larry Kudlow’s show.

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From the Associated Press:

Europe failed to get the leaders of the world’s wealthiest economies to help out with its debt troubles, but everyone left a G-20 summit Friday relieved that at least they forced the Greek prime minister not to hold the world hostage with a bailout vote.

It took a public berating of Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, and Greece’s politics are in upheaval as a result, but the shaky bailout plan appears back on track for now.

Investors had been hoping the Group of 20 nations would lend the struggling eurozone a helping hand—but the G-20 leaders said Europe needs to help itself first. They said the International Monetary Fund could be beefed up to help more, but not for at least three more months.

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From the Associated Press:

Greece is relying on rescue loans to remain solvent. But lagging efforts to tame a bloated budget deficit and enforce reforms are threatening that lifeline, which is conditional on fiscal progress.

Athens is trying to convince international creditors that it deserves to get the next, sixth tranche of money due from a bailout fund. Government spokesman Elias Mossialos said late Monday that Greece will get the bailout money.

Despite over 20 months of austerity and two international bailouts each worth about euro110 billion ($150 billion), Greece’s finances remain in a parlous state.

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“Men of experience succeed even better than those who have theory without experience…If, then, a man has the theory without the experience, and recognizes the universal but does not know the individual included in this, he will often fail to cure; for it is the individual that is to be cured.” –Aristotle

Aristotle’s wise words from 2,500 years ago gives us the precise reason why the president’s statist economic policies are failing miserably. Keynesian economists like New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman believe that during times of economic slowdown, it is the government’s responsibility to jump start the economy and spur economic growth by the government itself spending large sums of borrowed money – usually on make work public works projects. The theory goes that when the government spends large sums of money during a slowdown, this will somehow motivate businesses and consumers to spend money as well.

Two years after the president’s ’stimulus’ plan, with consumer confidence at all time lows and with unemployment at 9.2% and rising, the plan has obviously been a failure. That is why it is difficult to understand why someone of Krugman’s stature, as late as July of  this year, would argue for more stimulus spending and downplay the need to address our massive national debt when it’s obvious that the stimulus package has failed:

“What I keep hearing from Washington is one of two arguments: either (1) the stimulus has failed, unemployment is still rising, so we shouldn’t do any more, or (2) the stimulus has succeeded, G.D.P. is growing, so we don’t need to do any more. The truth, which is that the stimulus was too little of a good thing — that it helped, but it wasn’t big enough — seems to be too complicated for an era of sound-bite politics.’

“So no, I mean, the deficit doesn’t matter. The economy matters. And that’s why somehow or other, Obama has got to get jobs being created.”

Again:

“Men of experience succeed even better than those who have theory without experience”

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President Obama told the American people we have to “Eat our Peas” as encouragement for the nation to make the painful decisions to address our out-of-control federal deficits. To understand how many peas we would have to eat; a recent IMF report: “Who Will Pay and How?” determined that under a moderate growth “baseline scenario, a full elimination of the fiscal and generational imbalances would require all taxes to go up and all transfers to be cut immediately and permanently by 35 percent.”

Most Americans didn’t seem to mind if nobody’s taxes got raised or benefits got cut, but with Moody’s credit rating agency’s announcement that the United States of America is under review for a solvency downgrade, our nation is headed for a crisis and somebody needs to start eating their peas!

The IMF recognized that Americans were very willing to pile up massive amounts of debt for children to pay. Unfortunately as the charts demonstrate below; peak payroll taxes are spread out for all workers over their careers, but the much larger individual income tax payments start out low for young people and do not peak until their 50s and 60s. This makes the concept of the future generation debt transfers rather ineffective:

Most politicians assume when it comes to deciding the merits between raising taxes and cutting spending; men will tend to oppose higher taxes, because they already pay more taxes than women; and women will be more opposed to cutting spending, because they get more government transfers than men from food stamps and child support, since they are the main beneficiaries of such transfers themselves and on behalf of children.

It should not be surprising that President Obama idea of eating peas would prefer tax increases over spending cuts.

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From the Associated Press:

Riot police fired tear gas at youths hurling rocks near the Greek finance ministry Tuesday, trying to quell the anger unleashed by a general strike as parliament debated new cost-cutting measures.

The latest austerity measures must pass in two parliamentary votes Wednesday and Thursday if Greece is to receive bailout funds from the EU and the IMF to stave off a possible default in July. If the votes don’t pass, Greece could become the first eurozone nation to default on its debts, sending shock waves through the global economy.

The clashes with police came at the start of a two-day strike called by unions furious that the new euro28 billion ($40 billion) austerity program will slap taxes on minimum wage earners and other struggling Greeks. The measures come on top of other spending cuts and tax hikes that have sent Greek unemployment soaring to over 16 percent.

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The notion that American taxpayers are about to subsidize another Greek bailout (via the Keystone Cops at the IMF) is way beyond economically foolish. It is also morally offensive.

To turn Winston Churchill’s famous quote upside down: “Never have so many paid so much to subsidize such an undeserving few.”

Let’s start with a few facts:

o Greece’s GDP is roughly equal to the GDP of Maryland.

o Greece’s population is roughly equal to the population of Ohio.

o Despite that small size, in both terms of population and economic output, Greece already has received a bailout of about $150 billion (actual amount fluctuates with the exchange rate).

o Don’t forget the indirect bailout resulting from purchases of Greek government bonds by the European Central Bank.

o Now Greece is angling for another bailout of about $150 billion.

Is there any possible justification for throwing good money after bad with another bailout. Well, if you’re a politician from Germany or France and your big banks (i.e., some of your major campaign contributors) foolishly bought lots of government bonds from Greece, the answer might be yes. After all, screwing taxpayers to benefit insiders is a longstanding tradition in Europe.

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Here’s some completely depressing news. CNBC is reporting that President Obama is putting American taxpayers on the chopping block to bail out Greece’s corrupt politicians.

But, to show he doesn’t discriminate, he also encouraged the German Chancellor to rape her nation’s taxpayers for the same purpose.

President Barack Obama on Tuesday…pledged U.S. support to help tackle the country’s debt crisis. …After a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he stressed the importance of German “leadership” on the issue – a hint that he expects Berlin to help – while expressing sympathy for the political difficulties European Union countries face in helping a struggling member state.

The story doesn’t have much detail, but it appears that Obama is willing to brutalize American taxpayers directly (which is what he means by “on a bilateral basis”) and indirectly (i.e., the reference to “international and financial institutions like the IMF”).

…”we have pledged to cooperate fully in working through these issues, both on a bilateral basis but also through international and financial institutions like the IMF.”

What makes this development so unpleasant is that this new bailout (Greece already has been bailed out several times, with both direct and indirect handouts) will make things worse. Another bailout will be a case of throwing good money after bad. And it will exacerbate the economic damage by delaying the economic reforms that are needed to put Greece’s economy in better shape.

And to make matters worse, the other insolvent European welfare states will look at what’s happening in Greece and conclude that they also can avoid necessary reforms and wait for handouts from American and German taxpayers.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the Greek debt crisis and Francis’ thoughts on the 2012 race for President.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

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As the IMF gets ready to choose a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned following his arrest on charges that he sexually assaulted and raped a hotel housekeeper, it would be a good thing to step back for a moment and ask: What should the IMF do?

More specifically, can the IMF possibly morph itself into a worldwide force for economic growth instead of Bailout Nation?

Yes, it’s a powerful global economic agency. It’s also one with a very checkered past. Usually opting for austerity policies, such as currency devaluation and tax increases, the IMF has bungled a lot of rescue missions down through the years.

There was Turkey, Mexico, and the Asian Tigers. More recently, there was the Greece bailout plan, which has not succeeded. Neither have the Portugal and Ireland plans. Though the EU’s involvement in these European states has been larger than the IMF’s, the IMF was supposed to be the tough cop for budget cuts that have not materialized. The necessary debt restructuring also hasn’t occurred.

Socialist Strauss-Kahn restored IMF prestige with his political-economic activism. But he didn’t restore prosperity to the southern-tier European countries.

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From MarketWatch:

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington, D.C., right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, whomever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this.

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Recently, Portugal officially requested a $116 billion bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. This makes Portugal the third European nation to seek such a bailout in the past year (Greece got $157 billion; Ireland $122 billion). What most people don’t realize is that the U.S. is the largest contributor to the IMF. Therefore, U.S. taxpayers are paying for Portugal’s bailout which – like the earlier bailouts of Greece and Ireland – was caused by too much government spending and borrowing.

Last year, here at BigGovernment.com I warned how the Obama Administration was making a Greek bailout more likely by agreeing in advance that U.S. taxpayers would help foot the bill. Later, the IMF set up a $356 billion bailout fund for European governments with the consent of the Obama Administration– even though the fund will likely cost U.S. taxpayers between $50-100 billion and possibly more – all without a Congressional vote or consultation.

On April 29, 2010, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) and I wrote a letter to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner warning of the dangers of U.S. participation in a Greek bailout. “The Obama Administration needs to understand that bailing out Greece will not solve Greece’s problems,” I said at the time. “It will only create a moral hazard that gets America more involved in the gathering storm of European bailouts.” That storm has since consumed Ireland and Portugal and others may be on the way.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Francis Cianfrocca discuss the fiscal status of states, and the Irish bailout.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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Ailing Ireland Accepts Bailout
State Tests Limits of Spending Cuts

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Recent financial headlines provide a remarkable glimpse into America’s future if we stay on the same track we are now.  From Bloomberg news we learned:  “US Stocks fluctuate amid concerns European debt crisis hasn’t run course.”  Meanwhile, the IMF predicted that the “US national debt will soon reach 100% of GDP.”  Sadly, the World’s, the United States’ and California’s (16% of the US Economy and the 9th largest economy in the world) financial prospects are far worse than those headlines recognize.

The US economy is nearing $15 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP) per year.   The national debt it carries on the books is nearly that high and will certainly reach it, and far surpass it, within 2 years given the trillion dollar deficits that are predicted as far as the eye can see.  Of course, off the books, in accounting that would make Enron blush, the US government has $75 trillion or more in long term unfunded liabilities.  On a more short term basis consider this: the US Government revenues are running below $3 trillion dollars per year – yet its debt is over $13 trillion and growing.  In other words, the existing US debt is 4 to 5 times its current revenue.

Imagine if you will, if your credit card debt was 4 times your current income and the income you are likely to earn in each of the next 4 years.  There is not a bankruptcy attorney in the country that would not tell you that it is time to declare bankruptcy.  For its part, California is projected to have unfunded liabilities as high as $600 billion or 6 ½ times it current revenues.   Sadly for the US and California taxpayers, bankruptcy is simply not an option.

All of which brings us to the European debt crisis – which has anything but run its course.  Indeed, German Chancellor Merkel said this about the recent bailout of Greece: “We didn’t do more than buy time . . .” to get their collective government houses in order.  Meanwhile, USA Today, whose financial reporting is rather blunt at times, featured this headline: US “Investor fears ignite sell-off.”

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U.S and world stock markets are slumping badly as intensified systemic risks from the Greek and European debt-default contagion continue to spread. Disciplinarian markets of stocks, bonds, gold, and currencies are signaling the inadequacy of European Union rescue plans and the global fear that economic recovery will be blunted.

Europe is the main source of the current upheaval. Specifically, the biggest issue right now is short-term funding. Key funding risk indicators, such as LIBOR and various short-term swap spreads, are showing credit and liquidity stress in Europe. Interbank funding looks increasingly sloppy and worrisome. These are dangerous market signals.

The repo market for bank-to-bank loans was the source of the credit freeze back in the fall of 2008. And while today’s funding risks are not even remotely as bad as they were back then, liquidity stresses seem to worsen with the passing of each day. If these funding problems keep worsening, along with stock markets that keep declining, all hell will break loose. Another meltdown is possible.

So I have a thought.

In the autumn of 2008, when financing markets completely froze up during the very worst of the credit meltdown, the FDIC guaranteed all bank debt, from 30 days out to 30 years. In addition, the Fed and Treasury essentially guaranteed overnight lending in the repo market and the commercial-paper market for bank debt. It worked.

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After three weeks, most Americans still do not understand all of the behind-closed-door deals that had to be cut on the $965 Billion dollar bailout of Greece.  It’s yet another complicated deal, with little transparency to let non-governmental folks understand the specifics.

But, I do understand the power of a dream that can inspire a new generation.  And I know that Obama just killed that dream.

Obama’s decision to expand bailouts to include Greece coincided with a Senate hearing on another decision Obama  made to cut funding for a government space travel program, killing the dream of a permanent station on the Moon or a landing on Mars.

As an unintended, but cruel, joke,  Obama’s decision to retreat from space exploration has been pushed as an example of  the President’s fiscal discipline.  No doubt, Obama was hoping that such cuts would mask the fact that  he has endorsed the greatest deficits spending in the history of the United States.

But, as with many of Obama’s posturings, fiscal discipline was a canard.  Obama’s decision to cut NASA’s space travel wasn’t fiscally disciplined, it was just ill-informed.

Let’s take another look  at these two decisions.

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The New York Times has an article describing widespread tax evasion in Greece, along with an implication that the country’s fiscal crisis is largely the result of unpaid taxes and could be mostly solved if taxpayers were more obedient to the state. This is grossly inaccurate. A quick look at the budget numbers reveals that tax revenues have remained relatively constant in recent years, consuming nearly 40 percent of GDP. The burden of government spending, by contrast, has jumped significantly and now exceeds 50 percent of Greek economic output.

The article also is flawed in assuming that harsher enforcement is the key to compliance. As the video shows, even the economists at the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development admit that tax evasion is driven by high tax rates (which is remarkable since the OECD is the international bureaucracy pushing for global tax rules to undermine tax competition and reduce fiscal sovereignty).

Ironically, the New York Times article quotes Friedrich Schneider of Johannes Kepler University in Austria, but only to provide an estimate of Greece’s shadow economy. The reporter should have looked at an article that Schneider wrote for the International Monetary Fund, which found that:

Macroeconomic and microeconomic modeling studies based on data for several countries suggest that the major driving forces behind the size and growth of the shadow economy are an increasing burden of tax and social security payments… The bigger the difference between the total cost of labor in the official economy and the after-tax earnings from work, the greater the incentive for employers and employees to avoid this difference and participate in the shadow economy. …Several studies have found strong evidence that the tax regime influences the shadow economy. …In Austria, the burden of direct taxes (including social security payments) has been the biggest influence on the growth of the shadow economy… Other studies show similar results for the Scandinavian countries, Germany, and the United States. In the United States, analysis shows that as the marginal federal personal income tax rate increases by one percentage point, other things being equal, the shadow economy grows by 1.4 percentage points. …A study of Quebec City in Canada shows that people are highly mobile between the official and the shadow economy, and that as net wages in the official economy go up, they work less in the shadow economy. This study also emphasizes that where people perceive the tax rate as too high, an increase in the (marginal) tax rate will lead to a decrease in tax revenue.

It is worth noting the Schneider’s research also shows why Obama’s tax policy is very misguided. The President wants to boost the top tax rate by nearly five percentage points, and that’s on top of the big increase in the tax rate on saving and investment included in Obamacare. Based on Schneider’s research, we can expect America’s underground economy to expand.

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Price fixing is illegal in the private sector, but unfortunately there are no rules against schemes by politicians to create oligopolies in order to prop up bad government policy. The latest example comes from the bureaucrats at the International Monetary Fund, who are conspiring with national governments to impose higher taxes and regulations on the banking sector.

The pampered bureaucrats at the IMF (who get tax-free salaries while advocating higher taxes on the rest of us) say these policies are needed because of bailouts, yet such an approach would institutionalize moral hazard by exacerbating the government-created problem of “too big to fail.” But what is particularly disturbing about the latest IMF scheme is that the international bureaucracy wants to coerce all nations into imposing high taxes and excessive regulation. The bureaucrats realize that if some nations are allowed to have free markets, jobs and investment would flow to those countries and expose the foolishness of the bad policy being advocated elsewhere by the IMF. Here’s a brief excerpt from a report in the Wall Street Journal:

Mr. Strauss-Kahn said there was broad agreement on the need for consensus and coordination in the reform of the global financial sector. “Even if they don’t follow exactly the same rule, they have to follow rules which will not be in conflict,” he said. He said there were still major differences of opinion on how to proceed, saying that countries whose banking systems didn’t need taxpayer bailouts weren’t willing to impose extra taxation on their banks now, to create a cushion against further financial shocks. …Mr. Strauss-Kahn said the overriding goal was to prevent “regulatory arbitrage”—the migration of banks to places where the burden of tax and regulation is lightest. He said countries with tighter regulation of banks might be able to justify not imposing new taxes.

I’ve been annoyingly repetitious on the importance of making governments compete with each other, largely because the evidence showing that jurisdictional rivalry is a very effective force for good policy around the world. I’ve done videos showing the benefits of tax competition, videos making the economic and moral case for tax havens, and videos exposing the myths and demagoguery of those who want to undermine tax competition. I’ve traveled around the world to fight the international bureaucracies, and even been threatened with arrest for helping low-tax nations resist being bullied by high-tax nations. Simply stated, we need jurisdictional competition so that politicians know that taxpayers can escape fiscal oppression. In the absence of external competition, politicians are like fiscal alcoholics who are unable to resist the temptation to over-tax and over-spend.

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As the Greek Debt Crisis continues, President Obama needs to stand firm: American tax dollars should not be used to bail out Greece – or any country – that engages in reckless government spending and deficits.  And yet, a bailout paid for by U.S. taxpayers remains a real possibility.

This week, leaders of the European Union will be meeting to consider aid for Greece. But instead of using their own money to bail out Greece, it’s more likely the EU will adopt Germany’s proposal to use money from the International Monetary Fund. That way U.S. taxpayers – not just the European Union – will be on the hook for an international bailout.

U.S. tax dollars already pay for 17% of the IMF’s liquidity. And any bailout by the IMF would have to be approved by the U.S. government. According to the IMF’s rules, major decisions require an 85% supermajority. And the U.S. is the only country with the power to block a supermajority on its own.

Therefore, President Obama has the power to either approve or reject a bailout of Greece. So far, he has been quiet. But instead of waiting while storms gather, the President should be vocal that U.S. taxpayers will not bail out Greece. The European Union may be tempted to pass the buck to the U.S. by requesting IMF “help.” If the Presidents tells them ahead of time that such “help” will not be forthcoming, he will make it more likely that the E.U. will meet its responsibilities.

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Today, in 1945, the World Bank was created.