That Rick Santorum won big last night is a fact that cannot be denied. Voters in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado chose him, at times by a wide margin, over every other GOP primary candidate.  Clearly now, Santorum has gained momentum that exceeds even that which he garnered with his earlier victory in the Iowa caucuses. Another fact from last night that cannot be denied is that Mitt Romney lost, and he lost big. After riding the mantra of “electability,” that at times seemed to approach inevitability, the man who gave us Romneycare went down in flames in flyover country. And while his campaign and the Republican establishment will surely do all they can to make the losses look less important than they were, it’s axiomatic that a man who can’t win in flyover country in a man who can’t be the GOP candidate.

Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, so I’m not saying that Romney won’t pick up a win in flyover country at some point. But I am saying that last night, Colorado, one the states that should have been a shoe-in for him based on his numbers in 2008 and his religious affiliation, went to a more socially conservative candidate. (Even the democraticunderground.com noticed that Romney’s numbers in the most conservative of counties were down from 70% in 2008 to less than 50% last night.)

In explaining how last night happened the way it did, I go back to the exchanges between Santorum and Romney during the South Carolina debate earlier this year. No one, to that point, had stood toe to toe with Romney and forced listeners to truly consider the similarities between Romneycare and Obamacare. But Santorum did. And when Romney contended that Romneycare was working pretty well for the citizens of Massachusetts and that he was pretty proud of what they’d done there,  Santorum replied: “What Gov. Romney just said is that government-run, top-down medicine is working pretty well in Massachusetts and he supports it. Now, think about what that means.”

People are thinking about it, and all the candidates have to remember that Obamacare will never be popular in flyover country because it is a freedom-robbing mechanism.

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Other than in South Carolina, 2012 GOP Primary turnout has been somewhat flat, or below that of 2008. Up +3 in Iowa and +6 in New Hampshire, it jumped to +35 in South Carolina but dropped to -14 in Florida. It’s possible that the last minute surge by Gingrich and his debate performances brought some added excitement to the race, turning out voters in South Carolina.

South Carolina, of course, was the strongest state for Newt Gingrich. In contrast, turnout among Republican identifiers was down for Mr. Romney’s two victories so far, as well as for his near-win in Iowa.

While it’s possible to argue that Romney’s negative advertising in Florida lowered turnout, along with the lack of a special real estate-related initiative – one was on the ballot in 2008 – a closer look at the numbers still points to a problem, especially for for Romney.

In both South Carolina and Florida, district-level turnout was more likely to trend up in districts that went to Newt, and flat, or down in ones that went for Romney. Once one looks at party identification, the trend gets even worse.

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As Newt Gingrich’s victory in the South Carolina primary upended all previously held notions surrounding the unfolding GOP primary race, a common and vocal narrative has become increasingly prevalent; namely, that while he excites the Republican base, Gingrich is an unelectable, personally unlikable candidate that will be trounced in the general election.

This notion is utterly false.

While it is certainly accurate that any of the four remaining candidates for the Republican nomination will provide a stark, and compelling, contrast to the failed policies of the Obama administration, it is Newt Gingrich who has of late tapped into a visceral chord of discontent that permeates throughout much of the nation.

And, contrary to the narrative promoting Gingrich’s un-electability, the anger and discontent felt throughout the nation is not relegated to the conservative base of the Republican party. Nearly every political demographic in the nation, left, right, and middle, is frustrated with the Obama administration’s failure to improve the economic health and overall condition of the country.

Right direction/wrong direction polls have consistently shown that more than three-quarters of the country feel as though the nation is on the wrong track. In a recent poll released by Rasmussen Reports, only 24% of American feel the country is headed in the right direction.

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When Gov. Sarah Palin appeared on Sean Hannity’s television program, Hannity, last night, she discussed the recent GOP debate and the fast approaching South Carolina primary. Concerning the debate she had strong praise for Gov. Rick Perry, whom she described as “on fire” and “a true patriot.” She also spoke of how well she thought Rick Santorum did in taking it to Mitt Romney: of how Santorum “had an opponent up on the ropes,” which is “what you have to do to get to the truth.” But she reserved her highest praise for Speaker Newt Gingrich, whom she believed won the debate in South Carolina.

Said Palin:

Newt came out, just like South Carolina’s own Smokin’ Joe Frazier, he came out swinging, talking about work, talking about jobs and work ethic, and how government needs to get out of the way in order for all Americans to have a sense of opportunity to work, and I think that’s what a lot of voters have been craving.

The clip of Newt that played just before Palin said these things was of him pointing toward of the horizon during the debate and saying:

I believe every American of every background has been endowed by their Creator with the right to pursue happiness, and if that makes liberals unhappy, I’m going to continue to find ways to help poor people learn how to get a job, learn to get a better job and learn some day to own the job.

After Palin had praised Newt in this fashion, Hannity asked her if she was ready to endorse a candidate. And while she didn’t yet give an endorsement for the race in general, she did say, “I can tell you what I would do if I were a South Carolinian.…I would vote for Newt.” She went on to say that one of the reasons she’d do this is to be sure the vetting process continues for the candidates, inasmuch as the “mistake made in our country four years ago was having a candidate who was not vetted.”

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Rick Santorum greets voters in New Hampshire (Source: Yahoo News)

South Carolina is emerging as the key battleground in the Republican primary for 2012–and the campaigns are accelerating their ad buys in the state.

Since his success in Iowa, Rick Santorum has raised $2 million in two days, $250,000 of it online. Santorum is using the money for a 1,000-point television ad buy in South Carolina–a very significant campaign, aiming, generally, to ensure that the targeted audience sees the ad ten times. (Air time is cheaper in South Carolina than in Iowa or New Hampshire, where the same ad buy would be more expensive.)

When Santorum enters the TV ad market, he’ll find he’s got competition. According to data obtained by Big Government, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry have purchased $295,273, $486,118, and $223,992, respectively, worth of television ads thus far. (SuperPACs supporting Romney and Paul have booked $147,000 and $185,000 respectively. Another SuperPAC supporting Romney spent $1.1 million last month. A SuperPAC supporting Santorum is preparing a significant ad buy of its own.)

There’s little other data to guide predictions in South Carolina: prior to last night, here had not been a poll reported from South Carolina since December 18, 2011–fully eighteen days prior. That is an eternity in this election cycle. Eighteen days before the Iowa caucuses, Gingrich was leading them. On caucus night, he was in a distant fourth place. Such is the fluidity of polling in this presidential campaign.

The Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling, had Romney leading by ten points in South Carolina last night, on its first night of polling.  Remember, though, that this was the same polling firm that predicted Ron Paul would win the Iowa caucuses. It routinely overstates moderate Republican support and discounts conservative Republican support. Still, if that ten points holds, the race is over.

Rasmussen’s numbers–just out this morning–are a more optimistic for Santorum, and reflect his new status as the top contender to challenge Romney. With Romney at 27 percent, Santorum at 24 percent, and Gingrich at 13 percent, the new numbers suggest a significant shift in the race. Perry is a distant fifth (behind Ron Paul) at 5 percent. (more…)

From the Washington Examiner:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry failed to get on Virginia’s presidential primary ballot after the state Republican Party determined Friday that he didn’t submit at least 10,000 valid signatures. The GOP earlier announced former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul will be on the ballot.

An announcement from the party on former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s petitions is expected Friday evening.

The state GOP verified Friday that Romney and Paul turned in petitions with enough valid signatures, including 400 from each of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts, to get their names on the March 6 primary ballot.

Perry submitted 11,911 signatures to Virginia election officials Thursday, which means 2,000 or more signatures were deemed invalid. Gingrich had about 800 fewer signatures than Perry so there’s no guarantee he would meet the 10,000-name threshold. (more…)

And another one bites the dust…

Politico is reporting that Governor Gary Johnson of New Mexico is dropping out of the Republican primary to run as a Libertarian candidate in the 2012 elections.

Ironically, at a time of national deficit, Governor Gary Johnson is among the few candidates running for president who has actually cut government, but the media has repeatedly cut him from the debate. In the New Mexico statehouse, he vetoed 750 bills, fired 1,200 state employees and left the state with a billion-dollar budget surplus, which is the sort of toughness that Republicans claim to long for, but Johnson has only been invited to two of the nationally televised debates, much to his dismay.

Johnson reportedly expressed frustration that he was not being invited to the debates and that, despite doing better in the polls than Jon Huntsman or several of the other established candidates, he could get no media attention. In early September, Johnson polled higher than Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, yet he wasn’t invited to the Reagan debate. He polled the same as Herman Cain at one point.

Media attention has been key for this election. Just ask Newt Gingrich, who used the force of his personality and the platform afforded by the mainstream media networks to run for president. For weeks Gingrich lacked organization, and his campaign had defections that seemed to have left it moribund, but he debated his way back into the game. That’s a lot easier to do if you actually get invited to the debates.

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A number of people have contacted me voicing their concern that my coming out against Mitt Romney by signing onto the Not Mitt Romney pledge isn’t helpful. Their argument is that we must ensure that Obama is not re-elected. I agree. America is at a serious crossroads.

If Mitt Romney nabs the nomination as Republican candidate for President of the United States, I will support him with every breath of my body. That said, Obama Lite is not the answer. Obama Lite will not defeat Obama. In the lead-up to the primaries, we should fight for a candidate with the most principled values. Political will and courage is what we are in dire need of.

John Bolton was my candidate. He didn’t run.

Rudolph Giuliani was next in line for me. He didn’t run.

Sarah Palin had my vote. She didn’t run.

Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Michele Bachmann are next.

Rick Perry? Please. I questioned his very bad judgment when I exposed his entire Islamic curriculum, dawah and proselytizing, to Texas school children. To this day he has never come clean about that. And the fact that he was Al Gore’s manager does not bode well.

Perry is a snake. Watch him. He is creepy. And his freak show speech in New Hampshire recently belonged in a Roger Corman film. (more…)

Ames, Iowa – Now that Tim Pawlenty has become the first candidate to end his presidential campaign political junkies are consumed with who’s next? Despite finishing behind Pawlenty former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum promised me he isn’t going anywhere, “We are very excited about the results. Look we finished behind a perennial presidential candidate and two locals. That’s nothing to be ashamed of. We are ready to go.” Herman Cain struck a similar note, however, his supporters are far less optimistic. In national polls Cain still commands the greatest positive intensity rating, but his finish behind Santorum is another sign his momentum is gone. Ron Paul’s strong showing was expected, yet his numerous straw poll victories have rarely translated to success on election night.

Gov. Rick Perry may be campaigning down south, but his supporters are urging him to visit Iowa and fill the void left by Pawlenty. Conservatives are worried a Bachmann/Perry dogfight is looming in the near future. While Bachmann’s bruising assault upon Pawlenty may have driven him to defeat, only Mitt Romney stands to benefit from a similar barrage against Gov. Perry. Analysts and staffers are becoming increasingly alarmed by Mitt Romney’s ability to stay unharmed. Perry has also noted this and is supposedly looking for a showdown with Romney rather than Bachmann.

Meanwhile here in Ames live goes on as normal. Yesterday the towns population swelled by almost 30% as Republican faithful attended a straw poll that went down more like a rock concert slash county fair. Paul Shanklin scrounged the grounds with his eighteen year old son looking for material worth parodying on Rush Limbaugh’s show. Rick Santelli signed autographs, Mike Huckabee hammed it up with Christian music group Sonic Flood, and attendees joked that security officers vacated an entire level of the Hilton coliseum when Ron Paul’s supporters set up camp.

It looks like Herman Cain, Thaddeus McCotter, and Newt Gingrich are all good candidates to quickly replicate Tim Pawlenty’s departure.

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Michele Bachmann’s decision to vote against raising the debt ceiling, and to campaign on that stance, may turn out to be a decisive event in the race for the GOP nomination–and the presidency.

Whether that was the right policy for the economy is still an open question–especially since the U.S. credit rating was downgraded anyway. But it was the right decision for American politics, because it assures voters a real choice in 2012.

2012 is about the future. (Bachmann campaign)

The turning point in the 2008 contest was the financial crisis of mid-September–and the decision by John McCain to support the massive taxpayer bailout of Wall Street. That may or may not have been the right economic decision; economists are still debating that, and plenty of conservatives supported the bailouts. But it robbed American voters of the chance to choose an alternative to Barack Obama’s big government philosophy.

By the time McCain arrived at the first presidential debate on September 26, 2008, there was little apparent difference between the two candidates on the substantive question of the role and size of government. Only Sarah Palin managed to articulate an unabashed defense of the free market–one that held Wall Street accountable but also emphasized personal responsibility rather than the need for government intervention in the economy.

As House Majority Leader Eric Cantor notes in a must-read interview in the Wall Street Journal, the 2012 election will offer voters the debate over the role of government that voters deserved–and which the GOP was too timid to offer–in 2008. Any Republican candidate, including those now positioning themselves as moderates, would be better than Obama on that question–but who would best articulate the Republican position? (more…)

Every four years the voters and the media both complain that the presidential selection process starts too early and go too long as candidates all try to get a head start on competitors. Past is more than prologue. Forget everything you know about the Republican Presidential nominating process. The TV and cable networks, in their frenzy to trump each other, will start this process with the first televised debate a full eight months before the first votes are cast in Iowa closely followed by New Hampshire.

As a veteran of eight National Presidential campaigns I have studied this process for a long time. The Networks have created TWO contests – one in 2011 and another in 2012. This takes national focus off current government efforts to solve the nations problems. It’s a disservice to the voters and will de-value the early state caucuses and primaries.

Putting that aside, the process must be played as it is – and the new schedule could be a lay-up for a media savvy candidate like Donald J. Trump. No one understands the power of television like Trump. Millions tune in the Apprentice to see the most successful and best known businessman in America. Trump’s sharp criticism of trade policy with China, OPEC and the war in Afghanistan could find a large, even commanding segment in the GOP.

Trump showed at the CPAC gathering that his star quality plus his pro-gun, pro-life views combined with his pro-business stance can be a winner in the GOP. Trump literally has nothing to lose – and everything to gain by entering the 2011 debates. While Trump says he will decide if he is running by June, I would advise him to wait until the Florida GOP straw-poll in October to decide. After all, Trump doesn’t require time to build his name ID.

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He used to be known as “Richard Nixon’s favorite Mayor” when he was Mayor of Indianapolis and while the New York Times says he’s a “conservative” there is little in his record to indicate this. Indiana Senator Richard Lugar has always been a “moderate” Republican and has drifted further left as time goes by.

The Times also speaks of Lugar’s “affection” for Ronald Reagan which wasn’t reflected in his Chairmanship of Senator Howard Baker’s campaign for President in 1980. While there is no doubt that Lugar is a decent man and dedicated public servant, thirty years in the Senate is enough. The election of Dan Coats to the Senate from Indiana is proof the state can sustain the election of a real conservative.

Lugar is defying his party on an earmark ban, a bill that would create a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants, a military spending authorization bill and an arms control treaty with Russia, the Times noted on Sunday. He even declined to sign a brief supporting state lawsuits against President health care law.

Talk of a challenge from Governor Mitch Daniels are false.

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On Friday, January 29th, 2010, Lech Walesa, former President of Poland, traveled to Chicago to endorse Illinois Republican gubernatorial candidate, Adam Andrzejewski.

We were fortunate enough to have an opportunity to sit down with the President and Mr. Andrzejewski. Our video from that visit is below.

Items that stand out:  1) Lech Walesa tells his American Audience that the United States no longer leads the world politically or morally 2) At least one of your Founding Bloggers asks President Walesa if he thinks America is slipping toward Socialism. His Answer? Yes! 3) Andrzejewski is running on a platform of forensically auditing Illinois’ books and exposing corruption by making the details of the audit available to the public.

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