Gold has a long history of being many things to many people. To some, it is a shiny bauble, to others a commodity, and to still others a currency. To financial economists, gold is the traditional hedge against inflation. This month, however, it appears to have assumed a new role: The gold market is now the mirror image of the broad equity markets. And while the tight inverse correlation in day-to-day trading is unlikely to persist for long, this general relationship may be around for quite some time. Why? Because headlines notwithstanding, the rapid rise in gold prices is not a short-term speculative bubble, but rather a necessary consequence of our previous bubbles and an appropriate response to the shakiness of sovereign debt.

Contrary to convenient metaphor, financial bubbles do not “burst” when they end. They unwind. Consider the plight of the “Internet Bubble” of a decade ago. As 1999 drew to a close, all seemed rosy in the world of dotcoms. Christmas shopping brought droves of new consumers into the world of e-commerce, as the amount of business conducted on the Internet skyrocketed, along with e-tailer revenues. But that revenue growth, while significant, fell far short of the amount necessary to pay outstanding bills. In other words, folks who had relied upon future revenues to pay past bills were unable to do so.
The suddenly underfunded e-tailers, beset with disastrous balance sheets, had no choice but to defer their IPOs. Even worse, within a few months they had to turn to their suppliers, mostly web developers and software companies, and offer them a choice: Either defer due dates on all outstanding receivables and allow them to age gracefully, or sue for collections and risk a countersuit. With their eyes on their own IPOs, the web developers and software companies had little choice but to age their receivables—and pass the dilemma onto their own suppliers, including web hosting services and ISPs. They too had assumed that future revenues would cover past bills, and they too were disappointed. As month followed month, the problem flowed outward with each turn of unpaid receivables. From software it spread to hardware and eventually to telecom.
The demise of large, well-funded companies like Global Crossing and Worldcom—roughly two years into the unwind—finally diffused the losses sufficiently for the broader economy to swallow them. Investment picked up again, and the economy recovered—with a disproportionate share of the investment flowing into real estate. Why real estate? Largely because government policies arising from numerous corners and serving numerous goals made real estate investing appear to combine low risks with high rewards, and low down payments with sizable future debts. The specific causes of the real estate bubble—like those of the Internet bubble—form a fascinating tale, but one that is tangential to understanding its unwind. The key to both unwinds was the assumption that lager revenues tomorrow could fund today’s spending, or in a word, leverage.
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