Okay, we made up the word. But in medicine, as any physician knows, a blastoma is a malignancy of so-called precursor cells called blasts.  Should such an anomaly go untreated…well, let’s not go there.  Anyway, we decided to refer to any chronic economic conditions that threaten the health of our economy as econoblatomas, because of the real risk that they are precursors to a potential economic crisis; that is, they can spread.   What follows are what we call the Seven (there are, of course, others) Warning Signs of Econoblastoma.

1. The Euro – A default by any other name:

Greece will default on its debt, probably within the next 60 days.  They’re working on a plan that will allow the EU leaders to call it something else, but whenever lenders get taken to the cleaners by a borrower there has generally been a default.  Greece’s lenders (bond holders) are soon to be taken to the cleaners (again) so we’re about to see the first default in a Euro Zone country.  Now this Econoblastoma has been under treatment for a long time with, we’re sorry to say, poor results.  The prognosis is dire.

The reader will recall that over a year ago, the private bondholders who loaned money to Greece (based on fabricated economic assurances by the Greek government) were informed they would have to take a 20% haircut in order for Greece to meet its obligations.  Then last July the bondholders were told that 20% just wouldn’t do it, and that a 50% haircut would be required.  Now the bondholders are being told,  “fifty percent?” well, “that was okay for starters,” but it’s not nearly enough to treat this particular Econoblastoma.

No, it seems the cure for years of Greek profligacy will require that the holders of about  $206 billion in Greek bonds will have to swap them for bonds that will pay, upon maturity, 60% less.

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(Reuters) – Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro- zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their coveted triple-A status but not EU paymaster Germany, in a Black Friday the 13th for the troubled single currency area.

“Today’s rating actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone,” the U.S.-based ratings agency said in a statement.

In a potentially more ominous setback, negotiations on a debt swap by private creditors seen as crucial to avert a Greek default that would rock Europe and the world economy broke up without agreement in Athens, although officials said more talks are likely next week.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss the the top stories in politics, the marketplace and sports for 2011.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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In a stunning worldwide move, the U.S. Federal Reserve in coordination with the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and China’s Monetary Authority agreed to temporarily “dollarize” the euro. Facing a vicious bank liquidity crisis and a political nightmare; the German dominated European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to the virtual outsourcing of Europe’s monetary policy to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Although described as a precautionary arrangement for political cover; the “dollarization” of Europe has re-established the U.S. dollar as the world’s only reserve currency.

Twenty years ago, European nations sought to form their own reserve currency to limit the power of the United States in controlling their economic destiny. Following World War II, the U.S. took control of European monetary policy by pouring over $50 billion of cash into the war shattered economies. Over time, sovereign currencies were re-introduced; but the U.S. maintained dominance over each nation’s monetary policy through its reserve currency status.

In 1971, President Richard Nixon exercised this domination in a trade dispute with Europe and Japan by suspending the convertibility of the U.S. dollar into gold, setting wage and price controls, cutting taxes, and placing a 10% surcharge on all imports in an effort stimulate the U.S. economy by devaluing the exchange rate of the dollar. U.S. stock markets had their largest one day rally in history; while foreign stock markets crumbled. Four months later; the United States forced agreements for currency appreciation by Japan of 16.9%, Switzerland of 13.9%, Germany of 13.6%, France of 8.6%, and Britain of 8.6%. This effective devaluation of the dollar is credited as creating 700,000 American jobs and cementing President Nixon’s reelection in 1972.

Having suffered from such manipulation under America’s control over European financial affairs; in 1992 the nations of Europe began creating an economic integration that would lead to the introduction of the euro currency on January 1, 1999. Overnight, Europe became the largest trading block in the world and the euro with €890 billion in circulation became the world’s second reserve currency.

Prior to the introduction of the euro; the southern European nations of Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIGS) regularly devalued their currencies to remain competitive with the highly industrialized and sophisticated northern European countries. The introduction of the euro permanently fixed exchange rates for all euro members; but gave the PIGS access to loans from northern banks at less than half their prior interest costs.

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From National Journal:

This is the worst-case scenario from Europe, and it just might come true: Italy defaults on its debts. Every major Italian bank collapses. Recession grips the eurozone. Sovereign defaults and bank failures ripple across the Continent. Saddled with bad loans to nations and lenders in Europe, American banks hemorrhage cash. Credit freezes in the United States. Multinational companies, unable to raise money, curb U.S. investment and hiring. Wall Street demands, but fails to get, new bailouts. The entire developed world plummets into recession and, quite possibly, depression.

This, in contrast, is the placid warning that President Obama gave Americans about the threat: “If Europe is contracting,” he said on Monday, “then it’s much more difficult for us to create good jobs here at home.” There’s still a chance that Europeans, through some combination of fiscal and monetary action, can stop the crisis before it shatters the feeble U.S. recovery. But the worst case is so much worse than Obama’s description, and Washington has failed to prepare voters for the possibility. “The [potential] shock we’re talking about is of very large magnitude,” says Viral Acharya, a New York University professor who studies financial risk extensively. “If you’re just having an Armageddon coming your way, [America’s] buffers may not be adequate.”

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From the The Telegraph (UK):

The Bank of England and central banks in the United States, eurozone, Japan, Switzerland and Canada have launched co-ordinated global action to ease a growing credit crisis among eurozone banks.

“The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity,” the Bank of England said in a statement.

The central banks are providing liquidity to the financial system by lowering the price on existing dollar swaps, making it easier for banks to get access to dollars.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss Germany’s failed bond auction, calls for a more politically unified Europe, and the potential end of the Euro.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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It is not necessarily true that as goes the Euro, so goes the Dollar, but as goes the EU, so goes the US is as certain as the rising (or setting) sun. At least, if American fiscal policy continues to emulate that of the European spendthrifts.  The EU heads of state had marathon, round-the-clock meetings in Brussels last week, and inked a plan to finesse a Greek default (which is an eventual certainty) in a way that doesn’t immediately plunge the rest of Europe into a financial hell, and quite possibly drag America along with it.  Under the best of circumstances, the picture remains bleak.  Market analysts who focus on short-term stock market movements responded with sighs of relief.

The Germans, understandably, wanted those who have loaned Greece money (primarily, the European banks) to take a loss of about half of the value of their loans in order to ease the extremis in which Greece finds herself.  France, whose banks are holding a lot of Greece’s debt, preferred to rely more heavily on a pumped up bailout fund to ease the burden on Athens.  Given that the German taxpayer is certain to be the biggest funder of the proposed additional bailout, it is not hard to understand the rising tensions on the continent.

One can’t blame the banks for their reluctance to dance at this party.  Based on commitments the EU countries made, to keep their debt to no more than 60% of GDP and their deficits to no more than 3% over the prior year, Europe’s banks became major financiers of the new Euro countries.  But many of the European countries that were financially irresponsible prior to the advent of the Euro had no intention of changing their ways subsequent to exchanging their old currencies for the new Euro.  Greece flat out misrepresented its financial condition when it applied to become a member of the Euro Zone.

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It was a year and a half ago (May 17, 2010) when we first warned about Greece and hypothesized just how close France and the UK might be to the continental vortex we thought was in the process of spinning out of control. We also warned that we could expect the same result here if we persisted on pursuing the same economic model in the United States. Well, things have not improved.  Not there, and not here. Things have only gotten worse.

Greece is in violation of the covenants that were imposed as conditions of the first tranche of the bailout it received just last July. Italy just experienced a severe downgrading of its debt as did two of the three largest banks in France, with France’s largest bank having been placed on a negative watch list by the rating agencies. A major French/Belgian-owned bank is in a state of near collapse over its exposure to Greek debt as we write this. Concurrently, The Fed has embarked on what can be described as “QE 3 light” (…if at first — or second — you don’t succeed…), with Chairman Bernanke warning just last week that the US economy “is close to faltering.”

Let’s review the anatomy of the persistent and growing dilemma in Europe as well as the vacuous, if not clueless, approach the White House is pursuing to deal with our own deteriorating situation in the United States.

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The concept that seventeen independent rich and poor European countries could come together in a monetary union and perpetuate the “euro” currency has always been a fraud. The real story behind the formation of the euro was the “Grand Bargain”. The governments of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) receive colossal bribes in the form of the ability to borrow unlimited amounts of money at the same low interest rates the Germans pay; for agreeing to buy enormous amounts of German goods. The PIGS generously performed their side of the bargain. It is the Germans that after running-up vast surpluses are now economically destroying the PIGS by terminating the bargain.

The European sovereign debt crisis did not start 18 months ago when Greek borrowing costs began rising from 3% to the current 75%. The crisis began in 2009 when German politicians passed a constitutional balanced-budget “Golden Rule” at the height of the global credit crisis. The Golden Rule prohibits German politicians from passing a budget with a deficit of more than 0.35% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This was a radical departure from the unenforceable “Stability and Growth Pact” of the seventeen nation euro that limits deficits to 3% of budgets.

For a monetary union to be sustainable, it must be operated on the basis of ‘symmetrical obligations’ among the members. Germany’s decision to cut-off spending of its trade surpluses to finance the PIGS trade deficits has created a deflationary spiral in Europe. Over the last two years there have been numerous incremental European bail-out programs aimed at stopping the Greek debt crisis from spreading to the other PIGS. Each successive program forced deeper “reform” cuts to PIGS spending. “No reforms, no bond purchases” has been the message of the German controlled European Central Bank (ECB) and the German controlled European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).

Following periods of short term relief, each program failed.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss Nobel-winning economist Robert Lucas, the continued financial mess in Europe and the potential end of the Euro, plus it’s launch day for Boeing’s 787.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss the collapse of the European markets over the past six weeks, the Fed’s “Operation Twist” and the crazy philosophies of Elizabeth Warren.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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From the Associated Press:

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s tacit acknowledgment that America’s economic slowdown is likely to persist for quite a while sent global stock markets skidding Thursday as investors brushed off the central bank’s efforts to spur growth and focused instead on its gloomy assessment.

Oil tumbled too but the dollar held its own against the euro, which has been weighed down in recent weeks over concerns that Greece might go bankrupt. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led the retreat lower earlier during the Asian session with a near 5 percent dive.

The losses began Wednesday afternoon in the U.S. after the Fed announced a highly anticipated program to trade in $400 billion worth of short-term bonds for the same amount of longer-term bonds. The goal is to ensure low borrowing rates for a long period, thereby helping to stimulate the housing market and other economic activity.

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From the Associated Press:

Greece is relying on rescue loans to remain solvent. But lagging efforts to tame a bloated budget deficit and enforce reforms are threatening that lifeline, which is conditional on fiscal progress.

Athens is trying to convince international creditors that it deserves to get the next, sixth tranche of money due from a bailout fund. Government spokesman Elias Mossialos said late Monday that Greece will get the bailout money.

Despite over 20 months of austerity and two international bailouts each worth about euro110 billion ($150 billion), Greece’s finances remain in a parlous state.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Francis Cianfrocca and Ben Domenech talk about the Eurozone in crisis and why computer makers want to get out of the computer making business and into the software/services business.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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The notion that American taxpayers are about to subsidize another Greek bailout (via the Keystone Cops at the IMF) is way beyond economically foolish. It is also morally offensive.

To turn Winston Churchill’s famous quote upside down: “Never have so many paid so much to subsidize such an undeserving few.”

Let’s start with a few facts:

o Greece’s GDP is roughly equal to the GDP of Maryland.

o Greece’s population is roughly equal to the population of Ohio.

o Despite that small size, in both terms of population and economic output, Greece already has received a bailout of about $150 billion (actual amount fluctuates with the exchange rate).

o Don’t forget the indirect bailout resulting from purchases of Greek government bonds by the European Central Bank.

o Now Greece is angling for another bailout of about $150 billion.

Is there any possible justification for throwing good money after bad with another bailout. Well, if you’re a politician from Germany or France and your big banks (i.e., some of your major campaign contributors) foolishly bought lots of government bonds from Greece, the answer might be yes. After all, screwing taxpayers to benefit insiders is a longstanding tradition in Europe.

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss the Barack Obama’s ATM comments this week, and his administration’s failed outreach to business.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

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As the IMF gets ready to choose a successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who resigned following his arrest on charges that he sexually assaulted and raped a hotel housekeeper, it would be a good thing to step back for a moment and ask: What should the IMF do?

More specifically, can the IMF possibly morph itself into a worldwide force for economic growth instead of Bailout Nation?

Yes, it’s a powerful global economic agency. It’s also one with a very checkered past. Usually opting for austerity policies, such as currency devaluation and tax increases, the IMF has bungled a lot of rescue missions down through the years.

There was Turkey, Mexico, and the Asian Tigers. More recently, there was the Greece bailout plan, which has not succeeded. Neither have the Portugal and Ireland plans. Though the EU’s involvement in these European states has been larger than the IMF’s, the IMF was supposed to be the tough cop for budget cuts that have not materialized. The necessary debt restructuring also hasn’t occurred.

Socialist Strauss-Kahn restored IMF prestige with his political-economic activism. But he didn’t restore prosperity to the southern-tier European countries.

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The news is going from bad to worse for Ireland. The Irish Independent is reporting that the Swiss Central Bank no longer will accept Irish government bonds as collateral. The story also notes that one of the world’s largest bond firms, PIMCO, is no longer purchasing debt issued by the Irish government.

And this is happening even though (or perhaps because?) Ireland received a big bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (and the IMF’s involvement means American taxpayers are picking up part of the tab).

I’ve already commented on Ireland’s woes, and opined about similar problems afflicting the rest of Europe, but the continuing deterioration of the Emerald Isle deserves further analysis so that American policy makers hopefully grasp the right lessons. Here are five things we should learn from the mess in Ireland.

1. Bailouts Don’t Work – When Ireland’s government rescued depositors by bailing out the nation’s three big banks, they made a big mistake by also bailing out creditors such as bondholders. This dramatically increased the cost of the bank bailout and exacerbated moral hazard since investors are more willing to make inefficient and risky choices if they think governments will cover their losses. And because it required the government to incur a lot of additional debt, it also had the effect of destabilizing the nation’s finances, which then resulted in a second mistake – the bailout of Ireland by the European Union and IMF (a classic case of Mitchell’s Law, which occurs when one bad government policy leads to another bad government policy).

American policy makers already have implemented one of the two mistakes mentioned above. The TARP bailout went way beyond protecting depositors and instead gave unnecessary handouts to wealthy and sophisticated companies, executives, and investors. But something good may happen if we learn from the second mistake. Greedy politicians from states such as California and Illinois would welcome a bailout from Uncle Sam, but this would be just as misguided as the EU/IMF bailout of Ireland. The Obama Administration already provided an indirect short-run bailout as part of the so-called stimulus legislation, and this encouraged states to dig themselves deeper in a fiscal hole. Uncle Sam shouldn’t be subsidizing bad policy at the state level, and the mess in Europe is a powerful argument that this counterproductive approach should be stopped as soon as possible.

By the way, it’s worth noting that politicians and international bureaucracies behave as if government defaults would have catastrophic consequences, but Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute explains that there have been more than 200 sovereign defaults in the past 200 years and we somehow avoided Armageddon.

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The fiscal disintegration of Europe is bad news, though I confess to a bit of malicious glee every time I read about welfare states such as Greece, Ireland, and Portugal getting to the point where they no longer have the ability to borrow enough money to finance their bloated public sectors. This I-told-you-so attitude is not very mature on my part, but at least one hopes that American politicians will learn the right lessons.

Even though this is a big issue, I have not written much about the topic, in part because I don’t have much to add to my original post about this issue back in February. All the arguments I made then are still true, particularly about the moral hazard of bailouts and the economic damage of rewarding excessive government. So why bother repeating myself, particularly since this is an issue for Europeans to solve (or, as is their habit, to make worse)?

Unfortunately, it appears that all of us need to pay closer attention to this issue. The Obama Administration apparently thinks American taxpayers should subsidize European profligacy. Here’s a passage from a Reuters report about a potential bailout for Europe via the IMF.

The United States would be ready to support the extension of the European Financial Stability Facility via an extra commitment of money from the International Monetary Fund, a U.S. official told Reuters on Wednesday. “There are a lot of people talking about that. I think the European Commission has talked about that,” said the U.S. official, commenting on enlarging the 750 billion euro ($980 billion) EU/IMF European stability fund. “It is up to the Europeans. We will certainly support using the IMF in these circumstances.” “There are obviously some severe market problems,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “In May, it was Greece. This is Ireland and Portugal. If there is contagion that’s a huge problem for the global economy.”

This issue will be an interesting test for the GOP. I think it’s safe to say that the Tea Party movement didn’t elect Republicans so they could expand the culture of bailouts – especially if that means handouts for profligate European governments.

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