The enthusiasm at this year’s CPAC was palpable.  Conservatives turned out in record droves, optimistic and on the offensive against a government they rightly feel has run amok.  Dick Cheney and John Bolton amongst others predicted that Barack Obama would be a one term President.  I would take a more cautious view.  Beatable as I think President Obama is based upon his bombastic arrogance, blind elitism, blatant dishonesty, and boundless seemingly intentionally destructive policies, if the 2010 CPAC straw poll tells us anything it is that the conservative movement is still searching for its opponent.

Before delving into the numbers, it is important to note that while roughly 1/4 of the 10,000 in attendance at CPAC participated in the poll, around 50% of these voters were students.  And indeed the youthful Campaign for Liberty crowd was highly visible and energized throughout the convention, which explains the extent of Congressman Ron Paul’s success.  Paul, the staunch libertarian came in first with 31% of the vote, Mitt Romney the establishment candidate second with 22% and Sarah Palin the (absent from CPAC) Tea Partier third but lagging significantly behind at 7%.

What is fascinating about the results is that the top three spots were split between three different types of conservatives, and further that the top two spots were divided between two candidates so bipolar.  In my view, Ron Paul comes off as unrefined, radical and principled, while Mitt Romney comes off as polished, moderate and slickly political. Sarah Palin alternatively is the homey if not hokie populist.

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Ron Paul tops CPAC’s annual straw poll with 31%.  Mitt Romney was 2nd most popular and Sarah Palin 3rd.  The results were booed by those present in the convention halls.

The majority of attendees said they are dissatisfied with the current field of potential candidates.

The withdrawal of Dede Scozzafava from the special election for Congress in upstate New York has predictably set off another wave of media-led hand-wringing about the health of the GOP. (See here and here, for example.) These stories are like crack for reporters, especially those with a hard-left slant. It is always framed as a battle between ‘conservatives’ and ‘moderates,’ but the focus is actually much narrower.

To Big Media, conservatism comes in only one flavor, social conservatism, namely anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage and a smattering of other issues that would fall flat over canapés and seltzer (liberals don’t seem to drink anymore). That Dede was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage fits the narrative perfectly for the media. End of story.

But, the media, and political leaders would be wise to dig a bit deeper into the story. Yes, Dede was pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, but she was also pro-government spending, pro-taxes and pro-Big Labor, to name just a few other issues. When a Republican candidate regularly seeks out the endorsement of ACORN and wins the endorsement of DailyKos, it isn’t much of a stretch to imagine that large segments of the party might have some misgivings about supporting the candidate. (And they would be right, since she has now endorsed the Democrat in the race.)

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