It is what everybody predicted would happen.  When Attorney General Stedman Graham er, Eric Holder announced that some of the Gitmo terrorist trials would be switched from military tribunals to civilian courts, people warned that key evidence would now be thrown out because it was obtained by enhanced interrogation techniques such as water boarding. That’s exactly what happened to day in the trial of Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani whose trial was moved into the civilian system last year. The terrorist Ghailani  is charged with conspiring in the 1998 bombings of the United States Embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, that killed 224 people.

The witness who was banned from testifying, Hussein Abebe, says he sold TNT to Mr. Ghailani that was later used to blow up the United States Embassy in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.  The Judge agreed that the government learned of  Mr. Abebe through Mr. Ghailani’s interrogation when he was being held in an overseas jail run by the Central Intelligence Agency.

According to Ghailani’s attorney,  the terrorist underwent coercive interrogation and torture while in C.I.A. custody, and that any statements or evidence derived from them is tainted and inadmissible. The  prosecution said Mr. Abebe’s decision to cooperate was voluntary and only remotely linked to Mr. Ghailani’s interrogation. “This is a giant witness for the government,” a prosecutor, Michael Farbiarz, told the judge last week, adding, “There’s nothing bigger than him.”  Mr. Farbiarz cited Mr. Abebe’s testimony that Mr. Ghailani made repeated trips to buy “black-market explosives” from him, adding, “That’s done for not many reasons in this life.”

Judge  Lewis Kaplan announced his decision today, blocking the government from calling  their “Giant Witness”

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The retirement of Evan Bayh is the latest heralding of difficult 2010 election year for the Democrats.  It is also a symptom of Obama’s mid 40s approval rating.  Smart Democrats know that the average midterm election year losses for the President’s party, when his approval rating is below 50%, is 41 seats in the House.  Three Presidents in the modern era suffered such a fate – Johnson, Ford and Bill Clinton.  Of those three, only Clinton went on to win a second term.  While it is likely Obama will suffer huge mid-term losses, it is more than unlikely that he will enjoy Clinton’s revival.

Clinton suffered the loss of 54 House seats in his first midterm election, despite a growing economy, because he broke his middle class tax cut promise – and the Republicans were smart enough to unanimously oppose that and run on the Contract With America.  Despite the loss of the House for the first time in 40 years, Clinton won reelection.

Clinton was able to win reelection in part because Bob Dole was not an effective candidate for the Republicans on the tax issue.  Clinton also famously triangulated in 1995 and 1996 with the help of longtime strategist Dick Morris.  Dropping ideology for practicality, in 1995 and 1996, Clinton pushed a national campaign to prevent teen pregnancy, issued an order clarifying the rights of religious expression in schools,  supported uniforms for public schools, banned human cloning, signed Megan’s law and welfare reform to name a few less than ideological triangulations.  Even before that, Clinton incurred the wrath of unions by pushing the ratification of NAFTA.

Of course, as the Governor of a swing state, Bill Clinton leaned an early lesson in pragmatism after he was defeated in his bid for a second term.  After apologizing for the policies that led to his reelection defeat, he regained the governorship and went on to enact mandatory competency testing for teachers and granted tax breaks to businesses – again with triangulating guru Dick Morris by his side.

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At the Washington Cathedral memorial service for conservative icon Jack Kemp last May, many of his loyalists asked the same question: with Kemp’s passing, would his infectious pro-growth optimism also depart our political stage? That profoundly sad day, it certainly seemed possible.

Just eight months later, there is a remarkable potential candidate in the Kemp mold who may oppose – and defeat – uber liberal Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). New York Republican, Conservative and Tea Party leaders are talking up the potential candidacy of CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow, a former advisor to Kemp and Ronald Reagan.

For decades, Chuck Schumer has bullied his way to victory at the polls. He’s a prodigious fundraiser, a tough campaigner, and has long been thought unbeatable. But as former New York Assembly Republican leader John Faso noted recently in the New York Post, Schumer’s “image of invincibility has been fed by the failure of Republicans in New York and Washington to aggressively attack his vulnerabilities.”

Many New Yorkers agree: it is difficult to find a federal legislator as odious as Schumer. He is personally responsible for much of the bad policy that led to the economic melt down of the United States. He stands firmly in favor of health care reform that is bad for New Yorkers and he supports a tax on banks that is poison for the Empire State.

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It can be no secret by now that President Obama did not have a signature achievement his first year in office. Of all his major initiatives, health care, cap and trade, civilian trials for terrorists and the “stimulus” bill – only the so-called stimulus bill was enacted. Hardly a success, as more Americans than not know what Paul Krugman and E.J. Dionne do not – that it was a bad idea. Worse for the Democrats — none of those efforts have produced a greater consensus or momentum for them or Obama. To the contrary, the Democrats lost key races in 2009, a Democrat House Member defected to the Republicans, the nation is more divided than ever and the Democrat Party is in disarray — as in the Obama presidency.

Not to be out-done by 2009, in 2010, the Obama presidency has endured:

(1) the loss of the Kennedy seat (which is how the Democrats view that race) even though Obama stumped for the Democrats’ candidate;

(2) Obama’s deficit commission was shot down;

(3) The unions are warning the Democrats that they are “going to have a hard time getting members out to vote”;

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During the Presidential “Media Fest” Campaign of 2007/08, many tried to impress upon the American people that Obama was an empty suit.  Quite simply, he had no significant legislative achievement to call his own.  Heck, as an Illinois State Senator, Obama voted “present” nearly 130 times, according to the New York Times:  “effectively sidestepping” issues.  The point of those who pressed Obama’s lack of executive experience and sidestepping tactics was that we could not afford a President who would do the same.

Ten months into the Obama Presidency, it is pretty clear that Obama is living up to his Absentee Legislator past.  Painful examples abound:

1. Trying Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Criminal Court.  Arguably one of the most detrimental legal and foreign policy decisions of our time, and Obama openly admits it wasn’t his call – it was an underling’s call – Eric Holder.  It was a terrible decision and, as Senator Lindsey Graham pointed out, an unprecedented decision.  While I doubt Obama sat purely on the sidelines on this decision, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that someone other than Obama has to take responsibility for this decision – good or bad.  And when it goes bad, then Obama will simply dump Holder.  Problem solved.
2. Health Care.  What’s a President to do when he is devoid of any significant legislation to his name?  Allow the most significant piece of legislation in the last 40 years to be written and managed by others.  Literally.   Before us is the biggest makeover of the relationship of the private sector and government since the Great Depression and Obama is merely a passenger on a bus being driven by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.  When it fails the American people, and it will, Obama will rightfully claim it wasn’t his bill.  Such is the prerogative of an Absentee President.
3. The Stimulus Bill.  It’s failing.  Indeed, over 3 million jobs have been lost since the Stimulus Bill was passed – a bill laden with pork because its passage was driven by someone other than Obama (not to say he would have passed a trimmed down bill).  Beyond that, we find out that the AIG bailout money was misspent – who would have thought?  Since the President can’t be in charge of such failures, and Obama can’t blame Pelosi or Reid,  the fall guy will be Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner – because, in time, simply blaming President Bush won’t be effective anymore.
4. The November Elections.  Even though Obama went and put his personal prestige on the line for New Jersey Governor Corzine, Corzine was soundly beat – as was the Democrat candidate in Virginia – a race Obama wouldn’t touch.  But those results, according to Obama, had nothing to do with him – those were races with local implications not national influences.

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Earlier this month President Obama fired Greg Craig, his main counsel on matters concerning the Guantanamo Bay Facility. And this week Obama sheds another one of his GITMO team with the resignation of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense for Detainee Policy, Phillip Carter.

It appears that Obama’s GITMO team is being systematically eliminated. One has to ask, why? The only real answer has to be that Obama is setting up some plausible deniability by firing or forcing the resignation of officials involved with GITMO policy. Once enough of these people are gone, Obama can look wide-eyed to the public and claim that he was badly served by his GITMO advisers and, therefore, it isn’t his fault.

Unfortunately for Obama the failure is not with the staff but with the chief himself, Obama.

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