In a story that will appeal to lovers of irony and hypocrisy everywhere, and is perhaps illustrative on the micro-level of the attitudes that precipitated this historical wave, Chellie Pingree (ME-01) finds herself down by four to Dean Scontras.

As an aside, I had to look up the state abbreviation for Maine when I wrote that last sentence, because I have never had to use it while working in my day job for Peter Roskam in Congress.  Maine has been pretty blue, and shockingly, nobody has reached out to collaborate on legislative issues. But today, Republicans are within the margin of error on both Congressional seats in Maine.

Back to Pingree.  Pingree was President of Common Cause prior to being elected. During her first term in Congress she lobbied for a ban on private travel for Members of Congress.

Here are Pingree’s remarks at a Congressional hearing:

“Most Americans never have and never will fly on a chartered jet, much less a fancy corporate jet complete with wet bar and leather couches. So when members of Congress constantly fly around on corporate jets and pay only the cost of a commercial ticket, it contributes to the corrosive public perception that members of Congress are more like the fat cats of Wall Street than they are like the rest of us.”

Now that Pingree is dating hedge fund manager Donald Sussman, she apparently feels no shame in catching a ride on his jet. As a bonus, Sussman is under investigation by the SEC.

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It wouldn’t be an election without an October surprise, and sure enough, the 2010 cycle will not disappoint.  This time, it’s not some 11th hour accusation about unpaid taxes, illegal nannies or secret love affairs, but an appearance from the Mad Hatter of pollsters whose crazy talk in the final days of the election is making black sound like white and and Nancy Pelosi sound…sane. Well, almost.

Who is the Mad Hatter of the 2010 elections?  Friends, follow me on a trip down the rabbit hole…

Dave Schweikert (AZ 5), who I met while in AZ in August and really like, has been ahead consistently by six to eight points against Rep. Harry Mitchell through the first of September.

So I became quite concerned when two polls in October showed him down by seven!  A 15 point swing in 30 days!

This is particular bizarre since Arizona is ground zero for voter angst this cycle.  My uncle, a retired professor of labor law, has never voted for a Republican in his life.  This summer, he started a blog against Harry Mitchell.  And it is nasty.

What moved him to do so?  His daughter (my cousin) narrowly avoided two rounds of layoffs from a major pharma company, each accompanied by a letter citing “recent changes in health care policy.” His premiums have gone up 15%.  Both his kids are under water on their houses.

Polls are moved by news. What could be happening in Arizona to turn Schweikert’s race around and make people like my uncle abandon his blog and let bygones be bygones?

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Last week on the PBS NewsHour, Judy Woodruff asked Nancy Pelosi if the GOP would take back the house.  Pelosi replied “We take it one district at a time.”

“Will the Republicans take back the House?” is perhaps the most frequently asked question in Washington, and is usually followed up with “By how much?”  Regardless of what you think about Speaker Pelosi, the lady didn’t get to be Speaker of the House by not being able to count votes. So lets have a look “…one district at a time.”

Republican challengers and open seat candidates lead in at least 51 House districts currently held by Democrats, according to public polling.

Following Nancy’s methodology, if the election were held on October 9 instead of November 2, the GOP would gain back the majority with 230 seats, assuming all tied races and races where Dems cling to a narrow lead break against the Republicans. Note that 17 more seats are within the margin of error of a standard poll.

Thanks, Nancy, for the vote of confidence.

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From Hawaii to New York State, the Ricochet Podcast goes coast to coast this week as we talk to Ricochet contributor Heather Higgins about her role in helping to elect Republican Charles Djou in Hawaii. That’s right, Hawaii. Then Col. Chris Gibson joins us to discuss the state of his race in NY’s 12th district, and his inspiring vision for the country’s future. Finally, Rob reveals his secret career as a political voice over artist and a third world columnist.

Join the conversation at Ricochet.com or write us at podcast@ricochet.com.

From the Honolulu Advertiser:

Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has won the special election in urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District, the first Republican sent to Washington, D.C., to represent the Islands in two decades.

According to the state Office of Elections, Djou leads with 39.5 percent of the vote, followed by 30.8 percent for state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and 27.6 percent for former congressman Ed Case. The remaining 11 other candidates attracted the rest of the vote.

The results are for ballots mailed in or dropped off through Friday and a portion of ballots received today, accounting for most of the votes cast in the winner-take-all special election. The Office of Elections plans to release a final count later tonight.

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From today’s Washington Post:

Democrats are bracing for the loss of a House seat Saturday in President Obama’s birthplace of Hawaii, where a special election in a heavily Democratic district has inflamed tensions within the party.

In 1831, a French aristocrat, Alexis de Tocqueville’s recognized how different America’s infant democracy was from other democratic republics. He issued warnings to our young republic, “One also finds in the human heart a depraved taste for equality, which impels the weak to want to bring the strong down to their level, and which reduces men to preferring equality in servitude to inequality in freedom”. De Tocqueville continued, “…when citizens are all almost equal, it becomes difficult for them to defend their independence against the aggressions of power”.

The agenda driven by President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and Leader Reid is aggressively targeted toward our becoming an all powerful central government. Since the 2008 election we have seen unprecedented expansion of government. History has shown us that as government expands individual liberty contracts.

In January of 2010, during the waning days of my primary campaign for Illinois Governor, former Polish President Lech Walesa came to Chicago to endorsed my effort. Known as the great anti-communist, founder of Solidarity, best-friend of Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and Pope John Paul II, Walesa continues to inspire and encourage strong leadership. During the luncheon, Walesa issued an ominous warning for America, “America is sliding toward socialism; America is no longer the shining city on the hill.” In the videotaped interview, Walesa saw a hint of socialism creeping into America’s domestic policies. He spoke of “the issue with the banks” and how “the government wastes all the money … building a bureaucracy — just for itself.”

Walesa said that the strongest candidates are committed to principles. The framers of our Constitution based out government on strong principles, sometimes referred to as the first principles. The “first principles” that will Ensure Liberty and the American Promise for future generations are:

1. Smaller Government,
2. Fiscal Responsibility,
3. Lower Taxes,
4. National Security,
5. Federalism.

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