It is ironic that China is demanding greater control of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, just as the nation’s banking system is about to be devastated by the white hot flames of inflation.
From a distance, China’s economy seems to be the poster child of sustainable growth. Recent government reports show the economy expanding by 9.7%, retail sales up a blistering 17.4%, foreign reserves at $3 trillion, and inflation only 5.4%. But these statistics mask a dark side; Chinese communist authorities have been artificially holding down fierce inflationary pressures by subsidizing consumer prices.

Over the last six months the government artificially restricted increases in retail food prices to 11%, while wholesale commodity food prices have jumped by 35%. In the last two months the government capped retail gasoline price increases at 10%, even as Middle East turmoil caused crude oil prices to leap by over 30%.
Most Americans believe that the secret-weapon of the “China Economic Miracle” has been currency manipulation of Chinese yuan’s exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. In the past two years as Asian economies and foreign exchange reserves expanded dramatically, the yuan gained only 4.6% versus the dollar. This modest rise compares currency gains of 31% for the Indonesian rupiah, 22% for the South Korean won, and 21%for the Singapore dollar. China has subsidized its exporters by recycling its export earnings back into over-valued U.S. dollars. The strategy makes China’s exports more competitive, but at the cost of spiking inflation at home.

The less known and far more important secret-weapon of the “China Economic Miracle” is the absolute control of the banking industry by China’s four largest state-owned banks (“SOB”); Industrial and Commercial Bank, Agricultural Bank, People’s Bank of China and Construction. Since the government does not provide adequate social welfare programs and restricts its citizen’s investment options to bank accounts, about 40% of Chinese household income is deposited in SOBs each month. The SOBs then leverage the deposits by ten times and loan 75% of this massive amount of cash at extremely low interest rates to state-owned-enterprises (“SOE”). The other 25% of lending is allocated to real estate development.

China is no stranger to bankers making risky loans to communist party officials and their crony real estate developers. During the Asian Financial Crisis of the mid-1990s, it is estimated that 40% of all SOB loans were non-performing and most were written off. The Chinese paid for the SOB losses with a 76% devaluation of their currency that crushed the people’s buying-power by 76%. From 1997 to 2004 Chinese frivolous lending was somewhat restrained, but since 2003 the bureaucrats have mandated a massive expansion of lending. In comparison to the U.S. and Europe where bank lending is flat, SOBs have been expanding loans by 25% annually.

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The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on Friday has caused tragic devastation to lives and property, but Japan may soon be over-whelmed by a debt crisis tsunami of epic proportions. With crony deficit spending by the Japanese government having destroyed its economy over the last two decades; Japan now has a real national crisis that will force the government to engage in massive deficit spending. There is a strong risk of a financial melt-down in the world’s most indebted nation.

After the credit-induced boom in the late 1980s, Japan’s high rate of growth stumbled and bank loan defaults sky-rocketed. Over the last twenty years, asset prices are down by 65% for the Nikkei stock index, 50% for residential real estate, and 70% for commercial real estate. The centrally planned Japanese government responded to this crisis of falling asset values with wave after wave of colossal deficit spending stimulus. Japan’s public debt rose from virtually nothing to 225% of gross domestic product (GDP), but the economy has remained stagnant.

Japan has engaged in about the same level of 7% deficit spending as the US has averaged for the last two years, except Japan has sustained this level of spending for the last twenty years. Normally, heavy deficit spending quickly exhausts a nation’s internal markets to buy its own debt and the country is forced to auction bonds at higher and higher interest rates to outsiders; which also increases the costs of the debt and forces the nation to sell even more debt. At some point the country becomes so indebted that credit agencies downgrade the country’s quality rating to junk, foreigners refuse to buy new debt, and the country defaults. Japan has avoided this deficit financing end-game, because the nation has been able to finance 95% of its debt at home. Over the last year Greece with a third less and Ireland with less than half the debt to GDP ratio of Japan, imploded when foreigners refused to invest.

As deficit spending has remained extraordinarily high for such a long period, Japan has maintained a 41% corporate tax rate; the highest in the world, 10% above the US and Europe and triple the fast growing Asian economies of Taiwan and Singapore. This has made Japan an unattractive location for private investment. The complete lack job security for young workers who can only find temporary employment has made life difficult for new families and caused the birth rate for Japanese women to be cut in half. Lower family formation has caused the household savings rate for the thrifty Japanese to fall from 5% at the end of the 1990’s to just above 2% currently.

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Is there a new Cold War developing between China and the United States? That’s a question hovering over President Hu Jintao and his entourage as they come to Washington to discuss military, trade, and financial flash points with the Obama administration.

President Hu told the Wall Street Journal that “we should abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality.” But is he to be believed?

Everyone agrees that this is a new, muscular, and more aggressive China. The more the Chinese strengthen economically, the more rambunctious they become with their foreign policy. Americans are increasingly irritated by this arrogance.

Just last week — and just as the Pentagon plans to cut back on the modernized F-22 stealth fighter — China insulted Defense Secretary Robert Gates by test-flying its own J-20 stealth bomber during his visit. Admiral Mike Mullen, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, wondered out loud why China is boosting its high-tech weaponry. He said, “Many of these capabilities seem to be focused very specifically on the United States.”

Surely the J-20 flight was a snub to Washington. Surely China’s whole military buildup is aimed directly at us. And surely China is of no particular help when it comes to the nuclear operations of North Korea and Iran.

Then, of course, are the numerous trade violations being committed by China.

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Charlie Gasparino in today’s New York Post:

The municipal-bond market is in crisis, with prices fall ing and investors running for cover — and for good reason.

Munis — bonds sold by states, cities, counties and other localities to finance government operations — are in trouble because the Ponzi scheme of Big Government is coming unglued. The markets are merely reflecting this reality, as they always do.

The $3 trillion muni market was once regarded as the safest of all investments because the bonds are backed by government taxes. Now it’s showing all the earmarks of the 2007-08 meltdown.

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President Obama has appointed three new doves to the Federal Reserve Board, thereby taking command of the nation’s central bank. But there’s a split developing inside the Federal Reserve System: The Reserve Bank presidents, appointed by their own district boards of directors, are increasingly likely to wage a battle royale against the central-bank headquarters in Washington and its free-money, ultra-easy policies.

The new Obama appointees include Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, Peter Diamond of MIT, and Sarah Bloom Raskin, the top Maryland state banking supervisor who blames Wall Street greed for much of the financial crisis.

Now, Ms. Yellen is a highly credentialed and respected former Clinton economist. But the new Fed vice chair is also a devotee of targeting the unemployment rate as a key monetary-policy gauge. The Keynesian idea here is that too many people working cause inflation. So with a 9.7 percent unemployment rate, she can be expected to back Fed head Ben Bernanke in his quest for continued free money, with the other new doves following suit.

Make no mistake about it. These appointees (along with Daniel Tarullo, an earlier Obama appointee and another dove) make for an easy-money, pro-regulation Fed. As for monetary soundness, price stability, and a reliable King Dollar, these highly credentialed academics won’t pilot us there.

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