2010 Census Is Built on Incomplete and Inaccurate Information
by Stephen Robert MorseLast week, Census Bureau Director Robert M. Groves said to Fox News that you can “trust 2010 Census data.” What our director fails to tell us is that the two software applications have operational problems that will ultimately lead to inaccurate data. Just spend a day working in PBOCS, the Paper-Based Operational Control System which processes enumerator questionnaires from the field, or MARCS, the Matching Address Review Coding System which shows a data capture of every questionnaire that was scanned at the Baltimore Data Capture Center and you will see the poor quality of work.
Thousands upon thousands of questionnaires are being scanned that show conflicting or incomplete data such as: vacant housing units with a population count, incorrect enumerator IDs, occupied housing units with no demographic information and the list goes on.
During the peak of the non-response follow-up (NRFU) phase of 2010 Census operations (around mid May), the Census switched to a shipping application built off a PeopleSoft/Oracle interface in order to take the load off PBOCS. Although this was a good thought in theory, the application allowed questionnaires to be shipped that were not even checked in PBOCS. In the final closeout days of the operation, PBOCS claimed many questionnaires were not checked in even though enumerators fervently claimed they turned them in.
Fortunately some of those were found in MARCS having been received at the data capture center but never scanned for shipping nor checked in. However because there was such a bottleneck sometimes it was few weeks between the time they were shipped and scanned; some questionnaires that never showed in MARCS were re-enumerated. Sometimes PBOCS would just revert some cases back to not being checked in. In a mad dash to finish and meet deadlines enumerators submitted second versions of questionnaires with little or less than accurate data replacing what may or may not have been originally submitted. Immediately after offices finished NRFU, headquarters closed the PBOCS to the local census offices to prevent further glitches.
As it has been mentioned time and time again, the Census never made it clear what constituted a completed questionnaire.
In such a recession, employees were promised more work if they finished quickly so experienced and resourceful field staff took advantage of the three visit rule sometimes making visits in consecutive days or all in a one day before going to a proxy. Local census offices managers, RCC supervisors and managers developed their own rules which were verbally communicated to field staff. These included guesstimating the population count and allowing enumerators to submit Enumerator Questionnaires (EQs) with little or no demographic information. Since performance was purely based on how many questionnaires get checked in; those who submitted hundreds of forms with nothing on the inside of the questionnaire were rewarded with more work.
On the quality assurance end, the staff attempted to examine the data collected for falsification and poor work quality. However reinterview only has been able to find those who intentionally falsified data. An enumerator can submit inaccurate or incomplete data and practically get away with it.
Most enumerators will be tempted to submit inaccurate data when they cannot gain access to the building, speak to a household member or knowledgeable proxy after repeated visits. The reinterview telephone clerks and field staff have to prove definitively by gaining access to the building or speaking to a respondent who said the interview was never conducted. But in reality the reinterview staff can never access the building, or with large apartment buildings sometimes a proxy is asked about hundreds of units and may not remember if the original interview occurred. Most of these bad data cases have little or no information or wrong information: no names, ages, Hispanic origin, race and sometimes not even a person count. But quality assurance staff have either been told to mark them refusals with an unknown population and check them in.
In the rare instance that the Census Bureaus’s quality assurance (QA) operations do suspect data falsification or inaccuracy, finding the culprit is difficult. There are thousands of questionnaires where the enumerator ID numbers are being read incorrectly at data capture. This invites data falsification in two ways. If a questionnaire is found to be inaccurate or falsified then it is impossible to find the culprit. If quality assurance staff does find an enumerator is submitting falsified or inaccurate work, they can not examine the other questionnaires the enumerator completed because many questionnaires do not have a valid enumerator associated with it.
In the current Vacant/Delete check phase of 2010 Census operations, while the agency covered up their own software problems by closing access to PBOCS, they have also created problems. For hundreds of questionnaires where enumerators clearly marked them vacant or deletes without visiting them LCOs cannot access the system to research who actually submitted this erroneous work.
Most of this is happening now in your local census offices across the country as the re-interview phase winds down. This is because of a huge backlog of EQs that were sent into re-interview, hundreds of outliers, and the slowness of MARCS. This inaccurate data is another smear of shame for the Census Bureau. For Dr. Groves to say that we can trust 2010 Census data is merely a cover-up.
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73 Comments
I must ask the BIG site team one more time… Any luck with the FOIA request on the number of patriots who wrote in AMERICAN on the census form concerning their race? Someone out there has to drop that bomb… hope its you guys…;)
Last week a census person AGAIN made the rounds inquiring about a neighbor who has apparently not turned in his form. He was told nothing by everyone on the street (AGAIN) and then still returned the next day. When I said, "I though the census was over", he told me that he doesn't stop until he is told to stop.
This happened in SWPA
You can never trust any data produced by a governmental entity because there will always be something political to determine how the data is mined to get the desired result.
Nothing government says is credible in the slightest degree, just look at their stupidity on "global warming", overpaid morons.
"…incomplete….inaccurate….poor quality"? Good heavens, is this describing some endeavor of the government? Let's get them, it, to run something else!
OT but it is Saturday and all…
Has anyone called yet for a 'Snookie for President' thread?
Stop. You had me at "Nothing government says is credible in the slightest degree".
I do so enjoy the daily comedy material the left supplies me…
"drain the swamp"
"transparent"
"feel your pain"
"teachable moment"
"deficit neutral"
and so on, and so on and so on…
COMIC GOLD!
Hey lets do it again. At least the job numbers will look better for the 2012 election. /S
What a swift and painful lesson it has been to be victimized, and educated by socialists. We are now wise to Government corruption, which gives us endless power to be proactive, and eliminate them from this point forward! We will monitor our Government every step of the way from now on. America & Fed. Government are now joined
We will fill our Government with Honest, transparent American's to bring back justice and prosperity for ALL!
"created or saved" and "man caused disaster" are dandies, too
She would immediately call for repeal of the "suntan tax".
"lock box"
"Bush tax cut was only for the rich"
"tax the rich"
"I don't know who that [Snookie] is."
"every bill will be in the Internet for a week before I sign it"
Yes it does go on and on.
I like you.
my favorite Obamaism: ETHICS WAIVERS
I'm going to go with misspoke or misstated instead of what they really do………outright LIE
With efficiency like this CENSUS is it any wonder people get a little bit leary of them handling Health Care?
On our mail in census form, we filled in 2 occupants and "American". A census worker showed up at my front door a couple of weeks ago. He was very polite and when he asked me for further information, I politely declined and offered him a glass of ice water- it has been rather warm here in Georgia. As he walked away, he turned and asked if the occupants were 1 male (me) and 1 female and if were both caucasians. I lowered my naturally deep Southern voice just a bit and said "you guess" as I shut the door.
She could at least be invited to one of their "soirees" they hold weekly.
That's what I'm talking about. Gotta start with something.
Snookie or Obama? Snookie or Biden? Snookie or Pelosi
Really what is there to think about?
Joe Wilson had it right, early on.
I like you too HT!
In a platonic way of course…
"the most ethical congress in history"
Of course!
you made me laugh out loud, I had lost track of the Orwellian stupidity
"Consumer Protection Agency" — snoops on every single transaction we make from now on
I one hundred percent agree with this story, but my question when has and does government ever get it right?
My family wrote "American" for all of us. We haven't heard from them since we mailed it in months ago.
A bit long, but what about all of the Obama CZARS????
Border Czar
California Water Czar
Domestic Violence Czar
Faith Based Czar
Great Lakes Czar……and the list goes on and on
These people want to decide who gets to live and die and can't organize a census or a plan to clean an oil spill. Lord help us all.
As Milton Friedman used to say, the one of the greatest hopes of mankind against tyranny, is the sheer incompetence of totalitarian regimes trying to artificially run complex bureaucracies without the benefit of free market principles and efficiencies. They tend to collapse on their own.
I know this is repetitive and eventually boring, but has any government agency ever functioned effectively or , God forbid, efficiently? I seriously doubt it. Just take a look at the SEC, MMS, interior department, DOE, congress, current administration, stateless dept, DOJ, homeless insecurity, etc. Seriously, we would more than likely get a better count by using IRS data.
Just another example of you get what you pay for – GIGO.
"Thousands upon thousands of questionnaires are being scanned that show conflicting or incomplete data such as: vacant housing units with a population count, incorrect enumerator IDs, occupied housing units with no demographic information and the list goes on."
Census data that contains no demographic information is what should be there. For Review, the census is for the purpose of representation, not where roads ought to be built, or schools, or hospitals. That should be left to local authorities. The ONLY question on a census form should be "How many people live at this address?" PERIOD.
Well at least the military still works. Otherwise were totally screwed.
UHHHHHHHH checking memory banks…… whirrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr… NO
I've been blasted here before because I was a hard working honest census worker and got a little peeved with the comments. Guess that's the reason for the RED mark by my post. But anyway, I worked on the quality assurance phase, and I found that a lot the the work I was verifying was wrong. These neighborhoods were pretty bad and maybe somebody just didn't feel like dealing with them so they said they were vacant. But beyond that, the last phase was very illogically presented to my group, with quasi falsification suggested, and when we asked good questions (and I mentioned the word falsification), a big stupid bruiser was brought in to intimidate us at the next meeting. He basically said shut up or I'll make you shut up. It was mind boggling. This clown was a supervisor! I lasted a short time after that and then quit. Very ACORNesque.
Maybe they should use that gigantic facebook database that one guy made and is selling to corporations. I'll bet it's at least as accurate, considering they're both based on self-reporting.
I wrote "human" for race on mine
A lady came to my door, a couple of weekends ago, had no shoes on and asked if I knew how may people lived in the vacant house next door. I told her 0. And before someone jumps, this was a middle aged white woman
I would bet it's more accurate!
I'll give you benefit of doubt and say your -100 rating may be misleading. I checked on your posts and there were 2 or 3 that drew a lot of thumbs down, but they were not worded in what would be considered a typical "trollesque" way. So I am giving you a thumbs up.
This is completely absolutely ridiculous. I remember before we embarked on this, when it was disclosed that we would need to hire 500,000 census workers… a republican said, "hey, why don't we just pay the post office to do it? It won't cost as much, they already have 500,000 workers, and they already physically visit everyone's house…"
And he was laughed at.
Fast forward, and we have this clusterf**ck. Bad counts leave open the chance of fraud. They used the hiring/firing of census workers to manipulate the employment data. Tossed billions more down the kensyian hole. And, hey… we also have to bailout the Post Office anyway in the end.
I'm sorry, this is a joke. I can honestly say with all seriousness (and a bit of sadness, really) that the Post Office could've done a better job. And should have.
OK Rick, you've been ticking off these agencies all day, and I didn't want to bug you, but please, next
time add the EPA to your list. I hate the EPA. They're about to make my life miserable. They think I can
farm without creating any dust. If the EPA thinks farming can happen without dust, we're gonna be a
Nation of dang hungry folks in a very few years.
Thank You
Once again, my sister who was employed by the Census and worked a total of 15 hrs ( plus the training that included a high priced hotel) that paid her over $400 was asked to come back to work. This is the 3rd time. She needed the job so she originally took it. Her job is now is to go back to the houses that did not respond to the original census worker.
They are doing this all over the country to pump up the employment figures. I don't blame my sis but WTF is with these morons who keep on re-hiring these people? Is she going to get any better resuls than the original census worker?
I swear, they don't know what the hell they are doing but thats the government. How do we expect they can do any job at all regarding the SS and Medicare? Morons.
Totally agree. A well-run, efficient census operation would scare the b'jeebers out of me. I want my government to muddle through the day trying not to hurt anyone at best.
I suppose you were an outlier in the census work. Sounds like you were introduced to the thugocracy. This census will be lawyers' paradise for years.
At least two big problems: 1) a large number of workers that…well…didn't work very well; 2) a large number of really alienated citizens not inclined to give up info to a mediocre census worker. Not a good environment for an accurate count. Be ready for crazy results favoring increased representation for liberal strongholds. These numbers are getting buggered.
Why would someone jump? And why do we care what race the census worker is?
I hope you're finally seeing the light and not just posting to get sympathy because your rating is – 100, therefore you have posted stupid progressive comments in the past. About time people like you are reading what is happening in this country.
Remember, the Census is now in the White House. They will fill in the blanks! It's all okay…just ask Obama!
American and age at my house. I followed advice of David Horowitz. Nothing came back.
Thanks, so reassuring to count on that.
We're about to have ourselves a "Situation" here! LOL
The "Regressives" have infected the military too; I just hope the infection is not terminal as it has been for media and education.
My, my, my. Perhaps the census number are off because all you right-wing nutjobs refused to answer the questions or lied.
The census has been taken for 100 years – and many of you rely on it to trace your family tree – then again, does the tree of liberty grow morons?
Who cares. There's absolutely no credibility on this site. Breitbart is at best a lying douch and at worst a Beverly Hills trust fund baby with an overdrawn account. Like all of the so-called darlings of the right he uses every puss infected trick to smear and falsely accuse. Funny how all of people he "investigates" are black. But I'm sure that is just coincidental.
Instead of lazily accepting whatever rumor you hear, why not try looking up the facts.
Facts are not liberal lies – they are data which has been objectively proven accurate.
Just get your tiny little 89 I.Q.'s over to a search engine and look stuff up. You might ber surprised to find out who is really manipulating the truth.
Peace out.
Seeing the light? What a sanctimonious boob. I defy you to find one even remotely "progressive" post of mine. It's pretty easy to read them. My rating has solely to do with standing up for census workers, many of whom were upstanding citizens needing work and keeping an eye on the process, when folks like you delighted in being rude to them, dragging out the process and therefor wasting tax dollars, and bragging about it. I am just guessing here, based on your reply to me. It's OK to jump to conclusions, right?
I worked on the census for 4 months and I have little confidence in the count. Our directives were always changing, many times illogical, and there were monumental screw ups and duplicates. That's a fact. Now that the census is over these higher ups in the census will probably get transferred over to ruining your health care. That's conjecture based on the fact that the government can't run anything well. Now, perhaps you would be so kind as to provide proof as to Breitbart's lies.
The 2010 Census,………..
was not about measuring the demographics of the country,………..
but rather a vehicle to gerrymander a permanent Democrat majority and,………
most important,…………
to make the employment figures look good for the November election.
oh yes,………….
to disperse millions of tax dollars to Obama / Dem cronies.
Interesting. And here I thought the DOA handled farming matters. BTW, I agree about the EPA. Seems they are attempting to do their own cap and trade on CO2 emissions even though global warming seems to be a farce. That should drive prices through the roof.
I also wrote in American. One person living at this address. Don't think I gave my name or age, but then they already have that info. No one came to my door anyway.
A just think…They claim they can fix our HealthCare!
I also answered American and one person. That actually was one answer more than they were entitled to. But I couldn't resist. Someone came to the door I said the form was sent and they went away.
I had a visit from a census worker that said they lost my form. I told her, that's not my problem. If they lost it, they just confirmed they received it. I told her the number of people living in my house and left it at that. She asked for my name and I told her she already has it so why ask again. She said "you are not going to answer any of my questions, are you? I told her, I already answered what was required by the constitution and she said thank you and got in her late model Corvette and sat there in my driveway for 5 minutes. My guess is that she filled out my form for me with guesses.
if you are interested check the articles at farmfutures.com under News.
USDA has in the past made inconsistent and somewhat feeble efforts to keep EPA muzzled
on our behalf, however lately, under Vilsack, not so much.
My spouse met the census worker at the door, told him the number of people living here and that was all he was entitled to know. But as the census worker was leaving, my wife said to him…Our race is American. The worker just grinned as he walked off.
I will also say that there are mostly honest, conscientious census workers out there. My Dad was one in the last census and my Uncle was a census worker in this one. They are retirees just looking to supplement their meager retirement income. It's the few bad apples and management that makes this such a cluster.
Mike
Thanks. I haven't seen anything about this on the Net or in the news. That site is now in my favorites section.
I've been touting this site and another, which sadly disappeared last week, for folks
who are interested in wide perspective on world trade as well as news related to
food production within the US. These reporters are usually straight reporters, unlike
the LSM, however occasionally there are some opinion pieces that reflect Ag's over
all views, (ethanol) which they assume we all support.
We all need to stay up to date on world food supplies, I was in a big WM yesterday
and noticed many of the shelves with canned goods to be stocked only two or three
cans deep. Saturday at 10:30 AM, shelves not fully stocked in small town USA and
the aisles were essentially deserted of people. WTH is going on, and why is no one
talking about it?
The decennial census has more than one systemic problem.
From the inside looking out (having worked on this project for the past 18 months), and as a veteran of the non-government business world (both as a small business owner and a corporate employee), it is easy to compare this operation unfavorably with business endeavors in the private sector. The government simply has too many ineffective but entrenched practices that prevent it from being efficient – from the hiring practices, to the planning, to the infrastructure to the management approach – this project was always doomed to be second rate.
The second greatest problem IS the lack of effective/efficient electronic support. No project with such such poor planning and sloppy implementation of IT could possibly assemble credible results. And this exists at a time when people as unimportant/insignificant as myself could quickly and easily assemble a small team of talent that could design, build and implement an effective/efficient electronic support system in a fraction of the time and at a fraction of the cost that the Commerce Department has spent to put PBOCS and MARKS (and all the other supporting applications) in place.
The third problem is the citizenry. In order to gather accurate information, the citizen must be willing to provide it. For a host of reasons, a large segment of the population has not been cooperative. I know from first hand experience that Census Enumerators are asked to go into dangerous areas where some have come to harm, and others have narrowly escaped. They are expected to gather information from citizens who have no intention of providing it and are tasked by their supervisors to return – over and over – to the same people who become more confrontational because they feel they are being harassed. It is no wonder that fictional data gets submitted.
This brings us to the obstacle that undermines the entire effort to enumerate the citizenry. There is a lack of real knowledge on the part of the population as to what IS and what ISN'T the role of the citizen. This is the fault of the US government which has been wishy washy about the obligations of the population and AWOL on enforcement. If citizens are indeed required to answer the questions on their census forms then the government needs to make that perfectly clear and needs to penalize those who do not respond (as the law already allows). If the government is overstepping it's bounds – as much of the population expects – then this needs to be corrected as well. The bottom of the food chain – the Local Census Offices, it's management, it's supervisory and administrative staff, and it's Enumerators – cannot make chicken salad out of chicken poop!
The next decennial census will be fraught with the similar problems even though the methodology is bound to be more advanced. It is unlikely that this can be fixed by governmental ideology or (and I use the term VERY loosely) the "business practices" of a government agency. Even in the private sector – where it would likely be managed more efficiently – it could easily fall victim to political agendas.
Brilliant summation of the 2010 Census. I would just add one thing: I would like to see enforcement of the BIG THREAT of falsification consequenvces on the part for enumerators. My experiance with the vacant/delete quality assurance phase taught me that several people in just my small area of the census were falsifying the questionaires. The "quality" was non existent: They were obviously lying so what happens to them? I would also like to see Mervin the big fat stupid bullying supervisor smacked down in a big way. But I digress.
Sure! let's start with the edited outtakes of the USDA manager Sharon Sharrod – Breitbart himself either edited the tape to completely change its context and meaning. Her point was to show how ANYONE can have an objective internal dialog to sort thoughts from emotions from history to arrive at a decision.
The full tape was not racist or bigoted. Whoever stitched those blatant lies together,
did so to make the woman look like she was something she is not.
Breitbart is guilty of slander and perjury and is being sued for so much money that even his despicable backers won't have enough to pay. Had he watched the tape, asked about the source (like a real journalist) he would have known.
But no, his huge ego and desire to destroy anyone (usually black – as in the also discredited ACORN videos, made by a convicted moron) he disagrees with.
Breitbart is arrogant sack of infected puss and hid boil needs to be lanced.
There is no "first amendment privilege" for character assassination
On the bright side, every incident such as this from the far,far,far right fringe groups, shows intelligent people that the republicans, the tea party, the bizarro blogosphere and the rich, fat, white guys with microphones do not want to help the country or the poor working people being "taxed to death."
The Bush tax cuts were for his cronies – the mega rich pricks for whom greed is better than getting laid. They put this country so far into debt, allowed runaway contractors to suck the public tit dry and now they want to return to power to finish the job.
If you can't bother to do your own research and make a reasoned decision, you deserve what you get. And it ain't gonna be pretty or good for anyone – except people who make a helluva lot more money than you.
Good luck and be sure to stock up on Friskies while it's cheap – you'll need it for your retirement.
.
Look up excerpt. Then look up edit. He played an unedited excerpt of Shirley. Are you sure Shirley is the hill you want to die on? She's been doing a whole lot of talking since, and she has not helped herself or the falacy that she and her husband are race relations warriors.. The entire tape does not exonerate her either. But the point, studiously missed by libs, is that the gotcha moment was the NAACP, fresh from their unsubstantiated racism indictment of the Tea Party – their very telling reaction to her words.
As far as ACORN goes, is that the other hill you want to die on? I am not shocked by your seething, unhinged reaction. Logic, facts, videos of people's ACTUAL WORDS, and most importantly,boffo shows of liberal hypocrisy tend to make liberals go all mad cow. I know it's tough on you. It's been so many years with no rebuttal to illogical liberal lies. It must be hard.
And what aint gonna be pretty? I was a little confused with that section of your rant. The 2010 elections? I agree. Better stock up on Prozak. Thanks for the laughs.
Note: This response is probably only of interest to those who have worked the decennial census
So true about the bad supervisors, Snoopcat – in Field Operations we had them mostly in NRFU where incompetent Crew Leaders (CL's) eventually disqualified themselves, and other CL's had to come in and clean up the mess! I got one of those and it was the one task I would have skipped if I could have! In the LCO, we were blessed with great people in Field Operations, Admin or Quality Assurance (and you know who that leaves LOL) – so we were lucky!
Maybe it was just our LCO, but as a CL on multiple operations, we were encouraged to weed out cheaters quickly. This became a huge challenge for Crew Leaders during NRFU because we didn't receive ANY of the the tracking reports that – according to our Crew Leader training and manuals – were to have been provided to us on a regular basis. We had been trained to use these reports to assist us in spotting data falsification but the reports never materialized, according to the LCO, because of IT issues.
In order to compensate for the lack of tracking reports, the NRFU CL's and Assistants were forced to put in a lot of additional hours. Besides checking for data falsification, we quickly learned that we had to manually track every questionnaire. Since our authorized overtime didn't cover the time it took to compensate for the missing reports, many of us worked dozens of hours each week for which we were not paid. And – officially – of course that didn't happen.
On the good news side, we DID terminate anyone caught falsifying data though, and any of their work that could be was redone. We were lucky to be supported by our AMFO/AMQA in weeding out those who were just "pencil whipping" the questionnaires, but I hear you saying that this wasn't your experience and I bet you're not alone.
One anomaly we did run into – (and I don't know what could have done to prevent it) – were a handful of respondents and proxies who thought it was clever to give us bogus information and then deny that they'd ever provided it when contacted by the QA team. I had to personally follow up on a few of these cases. One guy admitted to me that he'd given three different sets of information to the original enumerator and two others who were sent to follow up after he denied being the proxy. Go figure
I'm glad to hear people were fired, maybe more and sooner if they had had the means to tabulate the data in place. Incredible. My original crew leader was great. Her supervisor was OK I guess, a little like Michael Scott, but he made himself scarce. It was the quality assurance phase where everything broke down. Horrible neighborhoods, scary people, bad dogs, bad INK rubbing off all the EQ labels, illogical instructions, and a crew leader and her supervisor that were like something out of an cartoonish drama about bad working conditions. Oh the tales I could tell. Funny about the overtime! Of course it didn't happen. Firing squad for you if you show a minute of overtime.
Jaciscully – the proposal to have the Census Bureau accountable directly to the White House was torpedoed. The Census Bureau remains under the umbrella of the Department of Commerce. Don't take my word for it – check it out.
It has to be all about bolstering the unemployment figures – I don't know how any entity can be this incompetent! The Census moron just harrassed us for the third time (since we sent in our original response). After sending someone to our house after we sent the original form, and then another call to our house, they had information about my wife – that's it. Not me, not the rest of the family – just my wife. Can they really be that dysfunctional? It comes from the top, so I have to assume our president is aware that the data is incorrect, and that the Census Bureau is inept and stealing our money, but there is nothing apparently being done at the top.
What do we have to do to abolish this criminal waste of our tax dollars?
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