Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: Romney Narrowly Leads Paul, Santorum Surges
by PubliusThe Des Moines Register, which is widely considered one of very best indicators of how the results of the Iowa caucuses will turn out, has released their final Republican primary poll. The race is still up for grabs, with Mitt Romney clinging to a narrow lead over Ron Paul. Yet, the most compelling storyline of this last weekend before the primary continues to be Rick Santorum, who has gone “all in” in Iowa and surged in the poll. He needs a great result Tuesday to jump-start a campaign that has yet to catch on nationally.
The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.
But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.
Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In the final two days of polling, 302 likely caucusgoers were interviewed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.
Full article and poll here.
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86 Comments
I still don't understand why Iowa and NH gets to go first.
Breaking News!
Iowa doesn't really matter.
The practical effect will be to send a few losers packing…
Romney's in the lead! Romney's in the lead! A vote hasn't been cast, but Romney's in the lead!
Ron Paul supporters whoop and cheer when the polls show him to be leading but will lambast these results as being of no consequence.
If Santorum is truly surging then this weeks headlines WILL BE something he did in High School, or College, or some place else that is odd and obscure, but is meant to discredit him. That is how the left marginalizes and ridicules republican candidates. EACH and EVERY candidate thus far that "surges" gets this treatment and we all get played…..
Translation: Ron Paul is winning but this place wants to spin otherwise.
Tuesday will tell.
My gold is on RON PAUL. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlOnDj5wAwE&fe...
Tuesday will tell.
My gold is on RON PAUL. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlOnDj5wAwE&fe... http://teapartywpbfl.wordpress.com/2011/12/19/who...
I'll be interested in seeing who the 41% (who may STILL change their minds) actually really vote for. No doubt some caucus attendees will be swayed by the candidate surrogate statements at the caucus meetings.
Is it possible for a non-Marxist to win Iowa? The state that just recently legalized gay marriage by judicial fiat and the legislature did nothing about it.
Somebody has to go first.
Ron Paul is the East Coast Jerry Brown.
Iowa!
How pathetic. The whole country is going down the crapper!
Ron Paul moved the party to the Right. Win, lose or draw, we should be grateful.
I'm so tired of the Iowa caucuses. Iowa's last "called shot" was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Give it up already. They are no more accurate than Punxatawney Phil.
Making a choice between serial killers just to have another election between serial killers. The question is who will kill me last??
The people who respect our constitution, love liberty and our great country are moving the party to the right. To them we are grateful. The last major political figure to have on effect on the party was Ronald Reagan.
I watched Romney's wife give a talk in an Iowa coffee shop this afternoon to a small group of local people.
She's very effective and will serve him well ( whether you think that's good or not I don't know.)
These peripheral things are important in the home stretch.
Ron Paul is not on the right, He is not a classic libetarian. Hes a neo libertarian.
Ron Paul is a neolibertarian nut. Romney is a liberal .
Both are supported by the left. , not the right.
In Iowa , democrats can change their affliation at the cacaus an participate. Since their is no Democrat caucus , they are ready and willing to do so..
And Romney is Ted Kennedy?
so you are going support a candidate who loves government and does not fear it?????
he is a republican and that means he is a socialist
republicans always have trouble with truth. all the other candidates love government
do you need some cheese to go with that whine?
Please google: racist teaching of the LDS Church.
Please ask Mr. Romney about these things. He must be fully vettet concerning these matters!!
The Left has always had a monopoly on peace because they prey upon the disenfranchised. Ron Paul showed us that you can be for peace and free markets. Before you had to choose. For that I am grateful to the good doctor.
I'm even more grateful that he raised a son like Rand, our next Republican president.
Prediction: Romney will get the nod. Sarah will be his vp.
Paul will retire. Gary Johnson will pick up the Paul supporters and make a big dent in Republican support. Trump or Bloomberg will run (maybe together) and take even more support away from the Republican ticket. It will make for a great show but it will equal 4 more years of Barry.
Has the Republican party ever been so divided? Thoughts?
I prefer the term "Republitarian."
Ron Paul voted to invade Iraq just to save his base, is the pork king of the Republican party, pork placed in bills that he knows will pass and then he votes against them to look good to his base. He voted to allow the re-introduction of pharmaceuticals produced in the US by foreign countries to depress their US markets. A man of peace and free markets? I think not.
Earmarks and Pork are two different things.
The bill he voted for authorized the President to "respond to those responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks." That's a good thing. Those in favor of war in Iraq are far from Paul's "base." I think we can agree on that.
The battle between the Gay Left and the Gay Right of the Republican Party continues with the federalist/conservative making headway.
“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum," The best of a bad lot other than Bachmann. Too bad Cain had to drop out. The rest are tainted by the corruption in Washington, Newt the most followed by Paul followed by Perry. Bachmann would be my first choice, anyone but Obama does not fly, they are mostly in his court, especially Romney, the worst of the lot. Just another Progressive. Any one of them could have changed things, they did not.
Pssh, who needs voting?
Let Paul's support of that resolution prove that he will defend our country . . . . from actual attacks. He will fight back. He will NOT be the aggressor.
He has constantly fought to ensure that the Constitution is followed with regard to war. I believe he tried to impeach Clinton based on his actions in Kosovo because the President never even notified Congress let alone ask for approval.
On earmarks, just go on youtube and find out. The answers are there in Paul's own words. Never heard of the pharmaceutical thing. I'll google it later.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bHv3410g-g
Really,…………. because????? The taxpayers get their money handed back to them to spend as they wish in one version as opposed to the other or taxes go down or government is reduced in one and not the other????
I appreciate your effort, I was just going to comment that I'll google it tomorrow because it's party time.
However, that clip is so poorly edited, it doesn't let him respond. The job of a Congressman is to bring money back to the district. That's their job.
Earmarking is the process of itemizing exactly where the money is going. This is done by a Congressman because otherwise it is done by non-elected people in the executive branch like TARP. No one knows where the TARP money went . . . bad governance. If it goes to porky projects at least we'll know it if it's earmarked.
You're looking at a nickel when Romney's got a one hundred dollar bill problem –> he's a Marxist
Romneycare, pro-abortion, and other leftist drivel he holds to, and you're looking at this?
Priorities!!!
I think you're right.
If Sarah becomes his VP, her credibility will go to zero very quickly, as it will be obvious she is being used AGAIN as a way to get yet another Marxist into the White House. First McCrap, and now Romney.
To all 'real' conservatives in Iowa…there are only (2) 'real' 'conservatives running in this race…Rick Santorum and Rep Bachmann.
We need to rally around one of them…to bring 'real' change and hope to Washington in 2012!
Congressional record…Rep Bachmann…
http://ontheissues.org/House/Michele_Bachmann.htm
Congressional record…Rick Santorum
http://www.issues2000.org/senate/Rick_Santorum.ht...
Santorum telling it like it is…and not backing down!
http://bigpeace.com/jpollak/2011/12/11/santorum-f...
http://bigpeace.com/sfr/2011/12/22/interview-rick...
UNITED WE STAND TO TAKE BACK OUR GOVERNMENT FROM THOSE SEEKING TO DESTROY HER FROM WITHIN…BUT DIVIDED WE ALL FALL WITH AMERICA AT THEIR HANDS!
You've got my vote, Mr. Swift.
Here's the clip I had in mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWTyHbGcUQY&fe...
And it's a good thing, too: If Herr Doktor Paul Pot (R-Kristallnacht) gets anywhere near sniffing distance of the nomination, you can kiss any viable alternative to the National Socialist Democrat Workers Party goodbye, once and for all.
Have you googled in: racist teachings of the LDS Church? The socialist problem will be dwarfed by comparison. The critical issues of racism must be fully vettet, because these issues surely will, sooner or later. Whether or not we are in agreement is really not the important issue. I am sure there are people trolling these sites, knocking down the adverse comments of their candidates. That is all to the good. But, sooner or later these issues must be addressed. Whoever our candidate will be, I am sure we all want the best candidate possible to represent us against Mr. Obama. So how about it? Is this critical question worth addressing or not? I believe that it is.
Translation: Herr Doktor Paul Pot is whack, and your handle proves it. "Neocons," eh? When will you Paulbot whackjobs finally give in to your impulses and call them as you see them: dirty kikes?
Looks like Santorum is going to collapse in record time.
It's coming out now that he isn't prolife, and betrayed a pro-life Senate candidate to support Democrat Arlene Spector.
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/Santorum-Haunt...
You know RP is five by five on everything here in the good old US of A…….no problem there son…..
But….unlike you, I am NOT willing to sacrifice the countless millions of Jews and Christians in the mid east for a little finincial security….
You know RP is five by five on everything here in the good old US of A…….no problem there son…..
But….unlike you, I am NOT willing to sacrifice the countless millions of Jews and Christians in the mid east for a little finincial security….
The projection from the White House HAS TO BE one of STRENGTH!!! Nothing less!!! The world already thinks we are as weak as we have ever have been in our history!
Santorum …has a whiney baby face, that no one would take seriously
Bachmann…as much as I like her, will not be taken seriously either!
Paul…is just TOO OLD to hold office, for very long!
Romney…projects weakness, and an soft spot for the socialist
Newt…seems to be the most forceful on, but not too sure about his influence as a leader!
For Pete's sake IS THIS ALL THE GOP could come up with??? We ALL want change from Obama, but NO ONE has the real guts to take him on???
hate without debate typical republican/democrats
pretty much, which is why a vote FOR Mittens=Vote for ObamaCare
Tom's wrong in one aspect,and Bee explains exactly WHY.
Anybody BUT Bachmann, and O gets four more years
hope for a brokered convention, and pray the GOP has the kahaunez to pick SP as nominee
You'll get no argument from me on that.
Iowa matters. In 2008 if Iowa hadn't picked Huck over Rommey we would've had just one candidate that could've stopped John Mccain. Not to mention no matter how bad we think Rommey is he would've made a better candidate than McCain. Thanks to Iowa we got Obama to be our President.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
He's five for five if you want Obama reelected. Wld he's the only Repubican candidate that will guarantee another four years of Obama!
Walter Hanson
Minneapois, MN
Tom:
Rubio is going to be talked into the VP for who gets the republican nomination because he will create an appeal with hispanics to cut Obama's margin with hispanics. Besides getting Florida back into the Repubican it can make a major difference in states like Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
Bloomberg is a liberal democrat who can't stand being anybody's VP. Trump does this to get on Gretta's show to get free media. And a lot of those people who you are so worried about going to Johnson won't because they understand a vote for Johnson is a vote Obama.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Average:
Newt did change things in Washington. He got welfare reform, but us on a track for a balanced budget. The good economy in the mid and late 1990's was the result of government getting out of the way. Obama since his goal is for the government to do everything any of them will create change since they will basically stop lets let the government get in the way.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
Tyrant:
That's already known and he has defended that rather good. Keep in mind in 2004 Specter did carry PA while Bush lost the state. Maybe if people like you hadn't made Specter feel so threatened to be reelected he wouldn't have switched over to the Democrats. And maybe if people like you had cared in Minnesota more about keeping a Democrat out than a not so perfect Republican we wouldn't have an Al Franken or a bunch of those other liberal nuts that came in 2006 and 2008 which destroyed the country.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
This was run through the wringer a couple times.
No soap.
If the shoe fits…..
Of course those who opposed communism were accused of anti-Semitism since communism is a Jewish movement and there are a lot of Jews in the movement – and that is from those from within who are Jews like Whit Chambers.
Actually, I think Phil is MORE accurate…
Except one thing: all the big DIMocRAT leftists in both the House and Senate are all retiring…
They've seen the internals of all of these polls…and they KNOW the "good old days" are GONE…and they need to get out while the gettins good…
This stuff is all for show in Iowa…the picture will be much clearer come Super Tuesday…
Øbama is one and DONE…
thanks for proving my point.. did you republicans/democrats take your loyalty oath.
that's funny because when Paul's in the lead, all we hear out of people who don't like him is that Iowa doesn't matter… cuts both ways you know.
OK, look at your nickel. I'll focus on the $100 bill problems because priorities are more important.
"all the big DIMocRAT leftists in both the House and Senate are all retiring…"
only to be replaced by other Marxists.
Here is the new boss, same as the old boss…
Picture this. Wednesday, 1/4/12. Photo: Ron Paul and supporters are raising a flag on the summit of Mt. Suribachi. Headline: IOWA JIMA. Let's take this nation back from the precipice. Guts. Glory.
We already have President Downgrade who is (D-Kristallnacht)
What was the difference if Specter switched parties? He was a Marxist regardless what party he was in. His voting pattern never changed.
Yes, this is ALL THE GOP could come up with. That's because Marxists have taken over the RINOpublican party.
Still haven't googled in about those racist teachings have you??
Let's also ask Nobama and Holder,
They are the true racists!
This pole is another pole of registered republicans
I get thumbed down, yet NO ONE has the guts to say 'why'! Happy New Year!
Lucky for those who follow….. going first only sets the lowest standard. It leaves the final decision to those who have the final say.
It is a big deal because the guy 75% of the voters do not want is ahead???
Yes on the impeaching Clinton part. There's a video online of Paul speaking to the press about Clinton's impeachment back then, saying he should be impeached, but that the main reasons he should be impeached is because of his unconstitutional bombing of the middle east. Wow, RP was pissed off in that video on that subject.
He's more a paleo-conservative.
RP is more a paleo-conservative. That's basically a true small-government, constitutional conservative.
I think he gets decent support from the left simply because he's the most honest guy running and people would like to have an honest President.
Do all national socialists want to end the income tax, the fed, the IRS, are bigtime supporters of the Second Amendment, and want to cut a trillion dollars of spending their first year in office?
Maybe because the reasons you gave against the candidates you listed were pretty juvenile. "A whiney baby face"?
I'll tell you about Newt though. Newt is for amnesty, and he is for federal thumbprint databases for gun owners. Those two things alone should disqualify him.
Or, maybe because the Paulbots always find their way to the BG site just to get a rise out of people…?? Don't bother, you won't change my mind!
lol, you caught them… Paul supporters come here "to get a rise out of people," not to support the most small government candidate at a site supposedly promoting small government.
You bashed FIVE candidates and then wonder why you got thumbed down. The only people who would thumb you up on that post are Obama or Huntsman supporters.
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