House Democrats Head for Thumping at the Polls
by PubliusFrom the always interesting Michael Barone, in the Washington Examiner:
In 1994, I wrote an article in U.S. News & World Report arguing that there was a serious chance that Republicans could capture the 40 seats that they needed then, as now, for a majority in the House. It was the first mainstream media piece suggesting that, and it appeared on newsstands on July 11.
I cited as evidence five polls showing incumbent Democratic congressmen trailing Republican challengers. None of those Democrats had scandal problems; all five lost in November.
Today a lot more Democratic incumbents seem to be trailing Republican challengers in polls. Jim Geraghty of National Review Online has compiled a list of 13 Democratic incumbents trailing in polls released over the past seven weeks.
Some of these poll numbers are mind-boggling.
Tom Perriello, a 727-vote winner in Virginia 5 in 2008, has been running two weeks of humorous ads showing what a hard worker he is. A poll shows him trailing Republican state Sen. Robert Hurt 58 to 35 percent.
In industrial Ohio 13, which Barack Obama carried 57 to 42, a poll shows incumbent Betty Sutton trailing free-spending Republican Tom Ganley 44 to 31 percent.
As Geraghty notes, we haven’t seen polls released by many other Democrats on Republican target lists. Most are conducting polls; many have reason to release favorable results if they’re available. This looks like a case where the absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
Two years ago, Obama was elected president with a historic 53 percent of the vote — more than any other Democrat in history except Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.
These metrics — the generic ballot results and polls in individual districts — suggest that House Democrats are headed toward historic losses. Quite a swing in 18 months.
Read the whole thing here.
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72 Comments
Reject statism. Reject Chuckie Schmuckie, reject Gillibrand the appointed one, reject daffy Dan Maffie, Reject tryanny and slavery!
Vote for the Constitution and for individual liberty!
Don't just vote, get involved; donate time and money to conservative candidates! Talk with your friends and neighbors about the importance of this election.
If we do not soundly defeat the statist they will take it as a mandate and the next two years they will be unstoppable.
It may be too late already, this may be the most important election in our countries history!
Reject state tyranny!
Leave it to the criminals to make history leaving the hill, as they made history when they took over the hill, (more like TRESPASSED)!
Michael Barone is an incredible political observer, and statistician, he calls them as he see’s them. We will soon be able to express our appreciation for Washington's hard work…come on November. Remember, this is just the beginning, and will require several election cycles to remedy.
Pray the republicans don't squander any victories by becoming democrat-lite the minute they take office. First order of business should be to repeal that monstrosity they like to call a "health care" bill. Repeal, not tinker with or repackage or put lipstick on.
Charlie Rangle, one of many walking advertisements for term limits.
I am still at a loss as to why, an industrial state like Ohio, would EVER vote a democrat in office! Every industrial business that used to be in Ohio has been done in by the democrats…what's it going to take!!???
The Dems will never get it .. well the hard left Dems … I say that because most know of racism .. This party has jumped on the bandwagon of calling anyone who is aganist the president or his policies a racists !!!!
True America is sick of it .. your Jourl-o-list screw-ups made iot worse (as wre finding out how it got statrted)
They think calling most of America racists will help them… It will not…
I too "recall" my apoloigy fro Ms Sherrod ….
http://www.gaypatriot.net/2010/07/27/my-apology-t...
Vote out all Democrats, Marxists, Socialists, Communists, RINOs and all other forms of ObamaHos this November! Let's relegate the ruling class regime to the dustbin of history and get back to governance by consent.
If the GOP can take the House we may find out how truly corrupt and criminal this bunch is.Start ordering orange jump suits (in all sizes).
A big part is the union mentality of many residents. Like it is in Pennsylvania, the union mentality still has a strong hold even on the current generation. People raised in generational households where unions are still revered are literally raised believing that anyone other than a Democrat is going to take food out of their mouth and the roof from over their head.
Charlie Rangle should be the poster boy for election 2010.
The ex-chairman of the ways and means
Lining his pockets so it seems
Now he wants his day in court
And lucky he has the Black Caucus support
Seems ethical impairment is in the congressional genes
I'm ready… my family is ready…… most of my neighbors are ready (at least the ones who are willing to pay attention)….. most of my co-workers are ready…… to head to the polls and make history in the quickest reversal of fortune for any one political party…. you know, the one that doesn't listen to their constituents!
What bothers me most is the prospect of the conservatives regaining power and the lame duck congress passing everything they can before January. They will have nothing left to lose.
Charlie Rangle's poster should be hanging in a postoffice.
Al 'lame duck' dimocrat is a 'lame ass'.
How right you are sir! I stand corrected. LOL
I'm a Republican who is so motivated to vote in November that I think I might even vote twice!!
I hope that the republicans are listening to those of us that won't be easily fooled by the "us vs them" mentality. With the emergence of the tea party, republicans better put up or shut up this time. I went from republican to independent when I saw that the republicans were more like liberal lite (same politics, half the spending). And we'd better see some real CHANGE ie; repeal of obamacare, bank regulations, taxes if they want to stay in office!
my fear is that some of these Republicans will turn out to be not much better than the Democrats when they turn up in Washington,the place seems to corrupt everyone and everything that ends up there
As Dave said … Unions.
Betty Sutton reps my district and she is a joke. Look up Ohio 13 and you'll see a classic graphic of what a gerrymandered district looks like. Swipes right through the heavy union areas (FYI Dennis the Menace Kucinich's district is right next door)
While Ganley is running on the repub ticket I'm a little wary of him. He's a big time car dealership owner so I'm sure that he's dragging some union votes over to him … and possibly "you scratch our back we'll scratch yours" paybacks to said unions.
Does anyone know; – Are the Republicans running anyone strong against Gillibrand and Shumer in NY?
I haven't heard to much and with a strong clear message both (especially Gillibrand) are beatable.
Hopefully Republicans Tie these two bums to Pelosi/Reid/Obama and Obamacare.
Will Republicans have another Contract with America and make all race a national issue?????? I hope so.
Regular and often!
Amen!
We need to keep in mind who it is we are dealing with in this next election,we know Obama and the democrats fix the presidential election using Acorn and other shady characters,we now know most people in the armed services overseas won't get ballots in time for this election,thats votes that will not get counted,with the democrats running the system you can be sure the first thought in their minds will be who counts the vote,he who counts the vote controls the outcome and we've seen how low the leftist democrats will go to win,this is going to be ugly,we will see the worst our society has to offer come november 2nd,will we rise above it? Do we have the guts to hold accountable those who would destroy our constitutional way of government? Is the constitution already a meaningless piece of paper,just like in Russia where they have a great sounding constitution on paper only,they don't abide by it in the least,and the Russian government could care less because they control everything,you step out of line they come take you away,is this where we are at here in the USA? I hope we get an honest count of our votes november 2nd.If we do it will be a landslide.IMHO
Thank you for expressing that very important message!
Folks, this year is a REDISTRICTING YEAR!!!! In NY, the state legislature has said that if the Democrats take the house and senate, THEY WILL RE-DISTRICT THE GOP OUT OF EXISTENCE!!!!!!
It is so imperative, for so many reasons, that NO DEMOCRATS WIN ANY SEATS THIS NOVEMBER.
Please- we all want to rest at home after a hard day at work, but until after the elections, PLEASE work for one of your local candidates. These are the most important elections in our lifetimes.
GO GARY BERNTSEN!!!! Defeat Upchuck Schumer.
Steve Israel, Tim Bishop, Brian Foley MUST GO!
PLease check out GARY BERNTSEN!!!! He is ex-CIA and wrote "Jawbreaker". Website should be http://www.Garyforny.com, but google him and PLEASE VOLUNTEER!!!!!!
Also PLEASE check out http://www.csa-1776.org to get involved. WE ARE DOING GREAT THINGS!!!!!!
MOST CORRUPT DEMOCRAT!
Charlie Rangel (D-NY) Recently received the coveted "Most Corrupt Democrat" recognition by Human Events. Rangel got caught cheating on his taxes by under reporting his net worth. These issues and more are currently before the House Ethics Committee for investigation while Rangel continues to serve as Chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee. Rangel also made the Judicial Watch Ten Most Corrupt Politicians list. RANGEL CONTINUES TO PRESENT HIMSELF AS A MORAL LEADER FOR THE BLACK COMMUNITY.
Pelosi has been asked to re-write her own ethics rules because BLACK CAUCUS MEMBERS KEEP GETTING BUSTED VIOLATING THEM!
The Black Caucus Wants to Stop Ethics Investigations! http://usataxpayer.org/htm/vids.asp?A=73395511
The Black Tea Party… Are you tired of the NAACP, Black Caucus, Black Panthers and all hollering racist at the Tea Party and conservative Americans? Check this vid for a refreshing view.
The Black Tea Party… http://usataxpayer.org/htm/vids.asp?A=26077572
in a tele-town-hall 2 evenings ago my Congressman asked, how many thought the 'lame duck session'
should be eliminated. Sadly he never reported to us the survey results as the 'call' was near its end.
That he asked the question leads me to believe there is a buzz in Cong to pressure the Dems that a
'Congress Gone Wild' lame duck session is frowned upon by the voting public. We'll see if the Repb's
are able to do anything to curtail the Speaker and the Leader's enthusiasm.
That's why everyone is saying this is just a beginning. We have to replace as many Dems and RINOS as possible and get the rest in the next few elections. Like one of my favorite fat comedians is fond of saying about his weight, " this ain't no diet coke fix ".
The life of the nation is secure only while the nation is honest, truthful, and virtuous.
Frederick Douglass
The GOP needs to grow a spine and FORCE an investigation into Rangel and his fellow Democratic CRIMINALS! It needs to get major press before the election!!
I challenge Dems who have been in lock-step with this administration's agenda to now proudly run on that record and explain the 10,000 pages of deceitful bilge that has been past just on the stimulus, the 9000 earmark omnibus budget, the health care sham and now the financial reform smoke and mirrors bill. Please Congressman or woman, please explain to us the transparency, the advantages for hard-working Americans in these pieces of legislation.
Then explain how if your agenda will reduce the huge deficits "caused by Bush" that you have now tripled and get our country on the 'right' track, you need to raise taxes on everyone to make it better for all Americans.
With the Democrats controlling Washington, I think all of the races are going to be a referendum on the direction this country is going in. Given the dire state of the economy and the high level of government spending, the Democrats are going to have a very bad year.
I will never trust ANY offficial until I see heads roll and people behind bars. You or I would be rotting in a cell for the same malfeasance. Rangel WILL skate no doubt about it. When was the last time you saw a congressman behind bars? These liars and thieves protect each other and certainly do not want to be setting any precedents such as prison time. So at the end of the day, Rangel will walk away scott free.
These projections have been pretty good in the past and look about right here:
http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/h...
Point to Republican gains, but not taking either House or Senate. Pretty typical for the midterm elections of a president's first term.
We'll see!
I agree with you and "Don't tread on me" We also have to get rid of, I love the Mo$que & Amnesty- Bloomberg,NY!
We have had an unexpected Painful lesson in the dirty politics of Dictatorship by the Obama Administration. Never again!
Chally…You're sorta likable, but when I shake hands with people like you,
I always count my fingers afterward..
Been real nice knowing ya…RETIRE !
Rangel is working on an angle to keep him from the tangle of his ongoing fandangle! Too long on the public teat causes one to gorge. It matters not from where they came, nor the circumstance that brought them there, as always power corrupts. Arrogance and attitude of intitlement will be his undoing. Hence will be the fate of the Party Democrat, preach equality for all but more equality for others, mainly those in office.
If you lived here, you'd know. We have a State Republican Party that is corrupt to the core, and the people know it. They sent out campaign cards in the primary touting their candidates with "Tea Party Values" — which none of them actually had; a true Tea Partier would never stoop that low.
What the people of Ohio are now finding out though is that the State Democrat Party is just as bad.
We have some good Republican candidates (and some good 3rd party candidates who sadly don't stand a chance), and then we have candidates that just aren't as bad or corrupt as the incumbent Democrat — those are the ones we have to hold our nose and vote for just to make sure the incumbent weasel is voted out.
I'm guessing next time around we'll be doing the same thing in reverse…
Want a deal Charlie? You take frank, waxman, and piglosi with you and you walk. No questions asked.
To bad Intrade has Republicans winning the house and going through the polls on Rasmussen has them taking the house as well. As far as the Senate the dems will still hold on but won't be able to stop a filibuster. I could go on about electionprojection.com's bias and cherry picked numbers but I won't. Intrade and Rasmussen have been spot on in the past.
Have a nice day
OHHHH NOOOO,if these fine upstanding citizens are found to have broken the LAW they need a trial,out in the open for all to see.
Sparky…you are in denial.
The Republicans are poised to take 45 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. We will take both houses.
The problem with that is that all the people who vote GOP leave along with the businesses. That has worked wonders for the Dems in NY and CA.
Don't become too smug and complacent. Overconfidence will cost us the elections. Yes, this report is interesting and heartening, but it can lull one into a false sense of security and keep you away from the polls. Don't stay home. Get out the vote. We need every single vote if we wish to beat the bad guys. As Ann Coulter said: "Don't count you chickens before they hatch." We still have 97 days to wait. Stay alert; stay "frosty".
If the GOP doesn't smarten up in 2010, I think it will be the first serious opportunity for a third party in America since the Republicans overtook the Whigs.
Let's just not forget that the reason Dems are in power right now was because people voted them in to get rid of REPUBLICANS who didn't listen to their constituents. If you're not in a battleground state or voting for a candidate who is running a close race, I'd actually recommend voting third party.
Don't forget to stop by the cemeteries when conducting registration
Remember when the Communist party was the ‘one’ in one party rule in the USSR? Well we are headed in that direction. With Acorn, SIEU and other grass root organizations are coupled with entrenched progressives in the federal bureaucracies we are in real trouble.
The self sustaining federal government, spanning multiple administrations and congresses, are the real power brokers, statist out to preserve their own careers in a bloated federal system and not serve the interests of the Nation as a whole. They are the ‘continuity’ from election year to election year; they write their own regulations and with increasing frequency control the purse strings, all without much scrutiny. Once a tipping point is reached, no one can get elected without approval from the Communist, whoops I mean, Democrat party.
We are not a democracy but a republic. We must teach everyone what that means and we must reject false claims of “democracy” adherents. We are a bunch of states that united in order to establish a federal government with limited powers not a bunch of underground bureaucrats out to rule the sovereign states.
We must reach, teach and throw out.
Just remember that the whole reason Obama got elected by such a wide margin was because people were annoyed with the Republicans! If you're smart, you still are.
If you're in a battleground state or a battleground election, then voting for the R to keep out the D makes sense. But if you're not in a battleground election, there's no reason not to vote third party in the hopes of sending these people a serious message. Vote for any libertarian or constitutional conservative you can find, whether they're officially republicans or not.
Ya, here in CA we have exactly the same problem.
"I'm guessing next time around we'll be doing the same thing in reverse.."
There's got to be a solution to a two party system that is corrupt on both ends. .
Can the new Congress just undo everything they do?
The new Congress might just spend their entire term "undoing".
And don't forget all the investigations into the administration!
I need som input on the Arizona race too! McCain (I know…RINO) and JD Hayworth. Neither are a good choice. And JD is trailing big time.
ah, obviously fellow residents of the Upstate region of the People's Socialist State of New York!!
we MUST get the Republicans back in control of the state Senate!! if not, this state will become another Michigan.
Voting anti- Dem in November means we get our country back from the brink of Socialism.
Vote for conservative FIRST, Republican SECOND and Democrat…NEVER!
surely ye jest imsailing2, 50 years it will require to roll back 66% of this excrement that has
been foisted upon our Nation
That's what I'm afraid of. Why does it seem so much easier to do than to undo?
There's got to be a way that we can just get rid of it all before it even takes effect.
But then we will be no where until we can abolish all these new Federal Regulators and all the power they have been given.
Not if "We the People" hold them accountable, they don't pony up, they get the boot in the next election.
Demand TERM LIMITS!
I cannot wait for Perriello to be fired!
Cowboy,
Charlie screwed my old man out of his parking lot. I've got less then love for this idiot.
JD
The only legacy this little Harlem behind the eight-ball weasel should receive, is an orange jumpsuit, and Sunday visits.
Love a good haiku………….
That picture of Rangel… He has that look one might expect on the face of the nasty uncle who sexually abuses his 8 year old niece.
MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD, in the FALL!!!! Will it be enough to overcome Civil Citizen ANGER? The "Progressive Cartel" is doing everything within their power to ensure it!!! Don't be surprised if the night before election night they declare a National Emergency, Martial Law will cancel the elections!!!!!!!!! The "Progressive" branch of the "Media Cartel" will declare all control over future information!!!! EVERYONE WILL BE IN SUSPENSE AND A CONFUSED STATE OF MIND, (Like the good 'ol days) when the Cartels had automatic control, before the internet and FoxNews!!!!!!! JUST THE "BIG THREE' (Pigs in the porage) WINK!!!!!!! That was the Cartels good ol' days!!!
You guys are becoming incredibly naive. Don't get your hopes up people. Just look at Nevada. Everyone talked about Reid like he was a gonner. It only took one ad painting Angle as extreme and idiotic Nevadans went running back to Reid. Every other state will follow suit. Repubs are barely ahead BEFORE the Dems begin their fiery onslaught of character assasination and fearmongering. They, in collusion with the media, will reserve these poll numbers easily before election day.
Maj. Gen.Jerry R Curry (Ret.) Speaks Out On The Obama Eligibility Issue
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO8n4Pij158
Not just THIS November, 2012 as well. We must continue this fight for a long time. It will not be easy to cleans ourselves of these Progressives, but we MUST do it! Our very Republic is at stake here.
My entire family is ready as well. My daughter votes for the first time this year. She has become very actively engaged and will begin law school this fall (Constitutional Lawyer). Very proud of her! She is understanding what is going on in our country today, she is very concerned for her future. She wants to fight back!
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