The GOP Needs a Bolder Growth Message
by Larry KudlowMessage to my fellow conservatives: Please don’t blame the mainstream media for the improvement in jobs, unemployment, and economic growth. Reporters are not making this up. The economy is better. It’s going to give President Obama a leg up on the election. GOP beware, and come to your senses.
Take Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls gained 200,000 and the unemployment rate slipped to 8.5 percent from 8.7 percent. It may well be that a seasonal quirk added 42,000 messengers and couriers to the totals, but that will be lost in the headline reporting. It will be given back next month. It’s inconsequential to the overall story. Likewise, a normal labor participation rate would yield much higher unemployment. But that’s academic.
Like any president, Mr. Obama will take credit for these economic gains. He’s doing that right now. And he has a case to make: A year ago the unemployment rate was 9.4 percent, and in 2011 it fell almost a percentage point. In the twelve months through December 2011, the economy produced 1.64 million new jobs, while in 2010, only 940,000 were created. On a monthly average basis, 137,000 new jobs per month were created in 2011, compared to only 78,000 a month in 2010. Things are getting better.
Now, whether this has anything to do with Barack Obama’s policies is quite another matter. After all, coming out of a deep recession, monthly jobs should be closer to 300,000 or 400,000, as they were during the Reagan recovery in 1983-84. The unemployment rate should be falling much faster. This should be the Republican message.
Ironically, while President Obama takes credit for better jobs today, his forecast at the time of the $800 billion stimulus package was for near 6 percent unemployment at this stage in the cycle. So the stimulus didn’t work. And in terms of recovery rates, pro-growth policies following a deep recession — as per the Reagan experience — might be creating 6 to 8 percent economic growth rather than the 2.5 percent tepid growth of the two-year Obama recovery.
Message to Republicans? Be bold. Adopt a 5 percent growth target. Don’t settle for less. Adopt a clear pro-growth platform that emphasizes aggressive fundamental tax-and-regulatory reform for individuals and businesses. Especially make the case for the energy revolution, where blue-collar employment is vitally involved. Deregulate Obamacare to zero. Work on a sound King Dollar.
Most of all, get government out of the way. Instead, open the door for the animal spirits of risk-taking that could torque the economy. And work harder to make a case for limited government spending and deficit reduction, as Sen. Marco Rubio has just done with a tough letter to the president. As Rubio put it: “It’s a tragic reality, but on [Obama’s] watch, more and more people have come to believe that America is becoming a deadbeat nation.”
Finally, avoid special preferences for individual parts of the economy that distort economic incentives and actually slow down economic growth. As Kim Strassel writes in the Wall Street Journal, the Reagan plan years ago was an optimistic growth message for everyone, not just targeted classes or economic sectors. So don’t mimic Obama. Mimic Reagan. Clarify the goal of growth, growth, growth.
How about this? Get rid of special tax deductions, corporate welfare subsidies, and cronyism. Overthrow the political establishment in Washington.
What’s really driving today’s better economy is the resilience of America’s free-market capitalist system. In spite of the future threats from excess tax and regulatory actions coming out of Washington, the self-correcting American economy is in fact improving.
And that’s going to make defeating Obama tougher. Face it. That’s the reality.
Here’s another point: With better jobs, consumer incomes and spending power are actually rising about 5 percent annually right now. Corporate profits at 13 percent of GDP are the highest since 1950. And both companies and households have deleveraged substantially. So the economy could grow by 3 percent in 2012. And if Europe ever settles down, that could turn out to be a 4 percent growth rate with 2 percent or less inflation.
So just complaining about the economy is not a good GOP message. Better to focus more on a reelected Obama who will raise tax rates on entrepreneurs and successful earners and regulate businesses more heavily (that’s what the NLRB and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau flap is really about). Argue against redistribution, and in favor of opportunity and growth.
The GOP message has to be “We can do this better.” Growth at 2.5 percent with 8 percent unemployment should be replaced with 5 percent growth and 5 percent unemployment. Say that. And then say: Here’s how we will do it.
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39 Comments
The GOP not only needs a Bolder Growth Message, they need some message. Any message….
With all due respect to Mr Kudlow: "The GOP message has to be “We can do this better.”
Quite frankly, the GOP doesn't know Come here! from Sic 'em!
Lets start with promoting what Calvin Coolidge did to fix the economy 1923…
Yep.
The first thing Ol' Silent Cal did, was keep his mouth shut.
It's unfair to show a picture of Ronald Reagan when we are about to hear some of the least inspired candidates explain "why I want to be president [Miss America]." I miss him like he was a part of my family, because he made me feel like he was.
The debates are about to start http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-t8PngHgWY&fe... .
Don't expect to build up the weak by pulling down the strong.
Calvin Coolidge
He was a man of few words….for a politician.
"I miss him like he was a part of my family, because he made me feel like he was."
That was because Ronald Regan was original.
He was not a fraud.
He was not counterfeit.
Ronald Regan made US believe in our better selves, and in our better angels.
Outside of Washington and Reagan, Calvin Coolidge was one of my all time favorite presidents.
Although small in stature, he stood head and shoulders over most.
Interesting, I need to study him.
He was an amazing man, very humble. He is the one responsible for the "roaring 20's". My grandparents told me quite a bit about this man, they met and were married during his Presidency.
Coolidge and Reagan stand head and sholders above anyone else in the past hundred years…
"Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration has been minding my own business."
"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated failures. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
A couple Coolidge gems…
The unemployment number ONLY includes those that are actively collecting unemployment benefits. PERIOD! When a person runs out of unemployment compensation, they are no longer counted in the unemployment report. They're still unemployed, they're just not counted anymore. As more folks run out of unemployment compensation and are dropped from the rolls, the unemployment numbers will improve. As long as businesses add a few jobs here and there, the numbers really look great! This is where we are as of this date. 8.5% unemployment? Yeah, right!!!! Even the Stock Market knows these numbers are bogus. Look at how the Stock Market responded to the numbers after the announcement of the unemployment and jobs numbers. Two out of three of the major index listings were down, when such 'great news' should have the 'bulls' moving in and buying everything in sight!
Previously, the actual unemployment was calculated not only by taking the unemployment compensation numbers, but by figuring the number that are no longer, or never were on the compensation rolls. Granted, this number is difficult to find and verify, but it is a statistically more accurate way to show the true number of unemployed people in this country. By limiting the data field to include only those receiving unemployment compensation, the rolls can be trimmed by any Administration. Actual unemployment did not change, only the method of calculation. No Administration will ever allow a change to be made back to the previous accounting methods. As an example, within one day, the current unemployment number might climb to 18-20%, which is where most economists advise the current unemployment rate to be.
Mr. Kudlow is quite correct in saying that the Current Administration is going to bank on these numbers. Unfortunately, with no other official data to offer, the Administration has the edge on this matter at this point.
Yep I agree with you Larry K except about this,
As Rubio put it: “It’s a tragic reality, but on [Obama’s] watch, more and more people have come to believe that America is becoming a deadbeat nation.”
Shouldn't most of the blame for turning America into a "Deadbeat" nation go to Bill Clinton for the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES of both the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act and the Fair Credit Reporting Act??
Humble like Obummer? (sarc) Reading about him right now, thank you.
GOP Guitar Czar Chris Holly performing at SRLC 2012 in Charleston SC http://www.chrishollymusic.com
It is hard to believe the constant propaganda that everyone buys into that the economy is getting better.
An honest accounting of the employment statistics would show a much higher rate of unemployment, of around 15 – 20 percent. It seems that all of the talking emptyheads quote the latest government stats as if they were somehow based in reality. But if you are measuring from a false baseline, you will continue to get false results.
These false figures also apply to the rate of inflation. Commodity indexes show an increase of over 20%, and non government baseline figures show an inflationary rate of over 8%. Shadowstats.com show an inflation rate of over 11%.
It is unbelievable that these lies are repeated over and over again, as if they were the truth. This is difficult to understand simply because it makes the Obama diktator government look alot better than it is. We don't need a better Republican message. We simply need the truth.
The GOP demonstrated what they are with Bush. They have no message. They merely intend to go on acting like Democrats and Romney as the probable nominee only reaffirms that. We are screwed.
"How about this? Get rid of special tax deductions, corporate welfare subsidies, and cronyism. Overthrow the political establishment in Washington" Kudlow
Mr. Kudlow, please give some specifics as to how this might be accomplished?
You are correct, Mr. Kudlow. The Reporters are not making up the recent employment figures. obysmal's apparachniks are, and media whores are just parroting them.
"We don't need a better Republican message. We simply need the truth."
I completely agree!
We could sure use someone like him. But note that the Jewish Left have so polluted our culture that such a thing would not even be valued today.
You know wasn't it just like four months ago unemployment was so horrible that Obama wanted to give a speech first on the night of a Repubican Presidential debate and than just before the New Orlean Saints was suppose to play the Green Bay Packers to outline a bill to do the job.
So in Jan 2009 Obama proposes a bill to spend $800 trillion to keep the unemployment below 8%. We are still at 8.5% today (far worse when you count discouraged and those people with just partime wanting full time)
In September 2011 we get a new planned which basically isn't passed (one minor part of the bill was split off a couple of months ago and passed) and get a great drop in unemployment with nothing new.
Shows do nothing new works which isn't Obama's style. That's a winning message.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
When they had economic growth WITHOUT inflation – so why are the bank shylocks like Bernanke insisting on the lie that we can't have one without the other?
And most likely still looking for a job that just ain't there.
Ronald Regan made US believe in our better selves, and in our better angels.
Sounds like Obama's "hope and change" that gets lampooned here. Let's call a spade a spade, ah hem.
Reagan rode in to town on promises to end two Federal bureaucracies and didn't – he actually created a whole NEW one. Of course, that was after the real people running the government tried to assassinate him….. (Reagan hated Bush and he was right to but even he didn't see the threat, I suppose.)
Reagan subsidized the USSR – a program he restarted after his predecessor, that "liberal" Carter, had ceased the program. Weird, huh?
You guys are in love with a fiction – the Reagan you imagined.
-Only radical Dem socialists believe that Obama has had ANYTHING to do with growing our economy, and talking to them is useless.
- "Undecideds" will listen to the list of destructive things that Obama, Holder, Unions and Commies are doing to
co-opt America and 'Fundamentally Transform' US into Socialism. So list them for them! Start with ObamaCommieCare.
- We real Americans, who live in reality, know that this man is a traitor who only wants to destroy America and replace it with HIS warped version of it, while punishing innocent regular Americans because of his deep twisted anger and jealousy. The true mark of a sick Narcissist.
-Our message should be – Clean out America and restore our beautiful, productive, law&order, FREE COUNTRY!
And who among the candidates has articulated a clear message for economic recovery and what is that message?
Passed this on to my sons – thank you !
Message? Are you friggin' kidding me? Boehner the Bonehead, says It'll hurt jobs in America, when Obama acts like a dictator. The message should have been, We are taking the President to court. This ain't happening…
Oh, yeah, did I say ball less?
"What’s really driving today’s better economy is the resilience of America’s free-market capitalist system. In spite of the future threats from excess tax and regulatory actions coming out of Washington, the self-correcting American economy is in fact improving." Kudlow
What's really driving today's "better" economy is Congressional stalemate; a do-nothing Congress. So the Tea Party success of 2010 has worked in a limited way. Stripping away bad regulation and law would do more, but we'll have to take what we can get.
Fortunately Obama can't stomach not doing anything, so he is acting to screw things up even further without Congressional approval. He might be able to bring those numbers back up to 9% all on his own by October.
Wife and I went to a Tea Party rally today in the northwest area of the Valley of the Sun (Phoenix area). We were on a street corner with Tea Party signs. Some had signs that read "Honk if you like limited government", etc. There were an awful lot of horns sounding in the hour or two we were out there.
It's actually not a bad idea to get out for a couple hours and let the people know the Tea Party is still around.
Ronald Reagan made me smile…He may not have done everything right, afterall he wasn't the Messiah, but he loved the country and the people, and it showed….I miss him too!!…
The GOP was handed a "bold conservative message" on a platter by the Tea Party two dam years ago. They still aren't listening. They think we are so scared we will vote for any hack they toss at us. They think they are bullet proof in this election and can do anything they want.
Mittens, "I'm not opposed to a VAT TAX" Romneycare? You gotta be kidding me. YO, GOP! Do you really wanna test your theory I'm too scared not to support this Judas goat?
See you at the polls, F*^*erZ!
More and more I think you are correct, Romney is just like Obama hand him a script and he delivers it, Just what we need.
I have more faith in all of the following
Newt believing what he says.
Ron paul loving America,
Perry knowing what a Leader should do.
Santorum loving the American people and having morals that matter to him beyond getting elected
At least huntsman can make people laugh.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Wo...
WHAT RECOVERY?
Obviously Mr.Kudlow has been drinking the Obama/left wing media Kool-aid.Any jobs that have been created in the private sector were created in spite of all the roadblocks put up by Obama and the democrats.in the last two years 1.8 million Americans have walked away from the workforce because they can't find a job in the Obama economy making the unemployment number closer to 16%.
Dear Mr. Kudlow,
Thank you, Sir!
Sincerely,
John Lepant Brighton CO
"Most of all, get government out of the way.
How about this? Get rid of special tax deductions, corporate welfare subsidies, and cronyism. Overthrow the political establishment in Washington."
Ron Paul would, but all the fake "small-government" hypocrites keep trying to stop him.
Which other candidate wants to cut a trillion dollars his first year and eliminate the income tax?
A "bolder" growth message?? How about some semblance of growth .. period! In the post WWII era, from 1950 – 2008 .. spanning the presidential tenures Ike – Bush2, the economy, specifically annual growth in real GDP per capita, has grown more than 3 times faster when the Dems hold office vs. the GOP. Here's real GDP per capita:
http://econographia.com/post/15134250577/the-bure...
So much for Voodoo economics …
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