How Obama Reduced Crime Rates Last Year
by John LottPresident Obama surely didn’t intend it, but he deserves some credit for last year’s 7.4 percent drop in murder rates. His election caused gun sales to soar, and crime rates to plummet.
While gun sales started notably rising in October 2008, sales really soared immediately after Mr. Obama won the presidential race. 450,000 more people bought guns in November 2008 than bought them in November 2007, that’s over a 40 percent increase in sales. By comparison, the change from November 2006 to November 2007 was only about 35,000. Over the last decade, the average year-to-year increase in monthly sales was only 21,000.
The increase in sales continued well beyond November 2008. From November 2008 to October 2009, almost 2.5 million more people bought guns in the 12 months after the election than in the preceding 12 months. The National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or NICS, doesn’t tell us how many guns each person bought just the number of people who bought them. Most likely though, gun sales rose by more than the number of people who purchased them.
At the same time gun sales were soaring, there was an unusually large drop in murder rates. The 7.4 percent drop in the murder rate was the largest drop in murder rates since the 1999. For those who don’t remember, 1999, when President Bill Clinton and Columbine occurred, was another time when gun sales soared. With people such as Elena Kagan serving as Mr. Clinton’s deputy domestic policy adviser were pushing hard for more gun control, Americans were worried that more gun bans were coming. And in response gun sales soared.
Just as higher arrest and conviction rates, longer prison sentences, or the more frequent use of the death penalty reduce crime, so does letting victims defend themselves with guns. More certain or greater penalties make it more risky for criminals to commit crime. Victims who can defend themselves can also make committing crime more dangerous and deter criminals.
Americans living in the District of Columbia and Chicago have seen this phenomenon themselves. After the ban went into effect in both cities, murder rates rose dramatically. After the Supreme Court threw out DC’s ban and gunlock laws in 2008, the District’s murder rates plunged by 25 percent in 2009. Indeed, my research in the just released third edition of More Guns, Less Crime shows that every place in the world that we have crime data for has seen murder rates climb when guns were banned.
If Mr. Obama really understood that letting law-abiding citizens defend themselves reduces crime, it is unlikely that gun sales would have had to increase. Yet, if the Supreme Court strikes down the Chicago gun ban this month, Americans may get to see yet again that more guns mean less crime.
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538 Comments
Maybe someday progressives will make the connection and understand that well armed people are safe people Mr Lott but I'm not holding my breath for any left wing awakenings in the near future. It has become painfully obvious since the 1994 gun ban that the left has only one concern where private gun ownership is concerned and that is eventual confiscation and an end to private ownership. There are a lot of things riding on the outcome of the November elections and this one issue in particular has been placed on a back burner so to speak so as not to tip their hand early and create a public opinion firestorm and deep six their chances. If the democrats retain both houses of congress I contend that they will move quickly on CIFTA if they miraculously win and pounce on the first outrageous act of violence to justify a national confiscation effort. This is the one uniquely American individual liberty preventing total government in America and they know it that is why staunch second amendment conservatives must win in November.
Whenever I want to Facebook one of these articles, the graphic, like the great one above, doesn't show (just those low-res photos). Anyone know what I'm doing wrong here? I want great graphics to show so they grab Facebooker's attention.
It got me off my @$$. I bought a couple hand guns and plenty of ammunition when he was elected. One more thing we can thank chairman obama for.
The regime is too green to comprehend a simple case of cause and effect. You cause me to arm myself and the effect is what a criminal will pay. DUH!!! The criminal element understand this very well and most do not have a Harvard Degree either.
Guns also serve as a handy defense against an oppressive government, as per the Universal Gun License in the Second Amendment!
I can't wait to see Mayor Daley's reaction to the (hopeful) overturning of the ban by the Supreme Court. I've got family in Chicago. That place is like bizarro world.
They know and understand! They do not want you and your's safe without their intervention. Nanny will protect you.
All the research in the world will not change progressives minds on taking away guns. Evidence and facts don't matter to them.
They simply want guys like you or me to be as submissive and beaten down as they can, and taking guns away is a big step towards making sure we know we're just peasants.
I know Barry HATES this report. MIllions more people can protect themselves from thugs and other violent criminal garbage without having to rely solely on government. An unintentional "change" by the almighty Obama; not what the dreamy-eyed, progressive, elitists want to hear.
Love the photo! I like how they put the cringing liberal pacifist on the LEFT and the brave Conservative on the RIGHT! Most appropriate.
I like my politics like I like my Christmas tree…it's ok if they are leaning…as long as they're leaning to the right!
I was a firearms dealer for 16 years and up until this pres. Clinton was the best gun salesman I have seen. But Comrade Obama blows him out of the water.
Most cowardly criminals don’t climb through windows when it’s possible to get their arse blown off. Simple self preservation!
…LIFE, LIBERTY and the PURSUIT of happiness…
Gun grabbers don't care about common sense statistics,
Come see our take on Bambi as Firearms and Ammunition Salesman of the Year!
Is it November yet?
DTOM! http://RightWingStuff.com
The picture is one by Oleg Volk of the http://www.a-human-right.com/ website and the http://www.thehighroad.us/ discussion forum. He has a lot of great photo/posters he has made over the years that underline the need for the second amendment and other constitutional rights. He's an awesome photographer.
Here is a classic sign used against a left-winger that does not like guns. Remember, if a conservative does not like guns, they don't buy one. If a liberal doesn't like guns they go out of their way to ban all guns including yours. I love it!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2468860/...
Banning guns is a key element of the Progressive statist agenda. They know that when they ban guns, only the law abiding citizens will not own them. That leaves only the police and the criminals who have guns. The criminals make you a helpless victim, because you, being a law abiding citizen, don't have a firearm to protect yourself. That leaves you dependent upon the State to protect you. A gun ban also serves to make sure you don't have firearms to protect yourself against the ever expanding and intrusive State. Its win-win for these guys.
I believe that the overwhelmingly vast majority of gun owners are law abiding by nature and the relatively minuscule amount of violent crimes are committed by very few recidivist criminals. It seems that the revolving door prison system is an "intended consequence" of progressive lawmaking in order to justify their anti liberty agenda over time.
The consequences for violent crimes must be substantially increased and become proportional to the crime committed in order to remove these 'select few' from society, forever if need be. We need to actually put killers to death, put rapists away forever and hold thieves for a very long time again.
We do not need the courts to experiment with 'creative sentencing' where these three groups of criminals are concerned any longer, save the games for the small fish.
The nanny state is doing so well protecting us on the southern border. Worry not, all is well…./sarc No thanks, I'll keep my 2nd Amendment rights to protect myself and my family, the very same way our founding fathers did.
Just a reminder for everyone, the police cannot protect you and are usually not able to prevent crimes.
The police investigate crimes after they happen, i.e. they draw the nice little chalk outline around the corpse of your wife, child, etc. or if they survive the attack police will interview and collect evidence.
The security of you and your family is COMPLETELY your responsibility and the best thing the government can do is get the hell out of the way and let people defend themselves and their families.
I believe progressives/liberals think defending yourself is to take the law into your own hands somehow. They also seem to think that our country would become the wild west all over again and every person that got angry with someone else would likely haul off and shoot that person. As they have shown time and time again they do not believe the average person to have sense enough to control their own actions and therefor the average person most be controlled for their own sake.
The other hypothesis is that the liberals in government, wanting to impose their will on the country, first need to disarm us so that we have no means to resist them.
What? Crime goes down when gun sales go up? That's as asinine as saying crime goes down when more criminals are locked up!!
/sarc/
You know what it is about guns that progressives don't like? They give people comfort, peace of mind and even confidence. This is not how the left works. The need us to be fearful because it makes us easier to control. Fearful people are easy to manipulate. This is why they like crises so much.
congratulations on the unintended success, mr. obama
So, when lefties smugly ask me if I can name one good thing that sprang from the Ob*ma regime, I can say, "Well, a hell of a lot of people armed themselves when he was elected."
It's fun to watch lefties' heads explode.
Ever notice that you no longer see 'to protect and to serve' printed on squad cars anymore.
Could that be why FDR let the cat out of the bag when he said that "all we have to fear is fear itself"?
I do seem to recall one gun trade association awarded Obama its salesman of the year award for 2008 because gun sales did in fact skyrocket after the November 2008 Presidential election.
When I saw the picture, I was going to point folks to Oleg, and see you beat me to it. I've been a fan of Oleg's work for some time. Very powerful images.
If I had the means, I'd ask Oleg permission to use his images for airdrop leaflet campaigns whenever the Brady bunch has a rally.
I have BHO for finally swaying my wife to the point of view that we need a hand gun for protection. Mainly due to the fact that we may not be able to buy one soon. And with the explosion at the Nosler plant in Bend, Oregon last week, expect ammo to become even more scarce. Didn't hear about that? Thank the LSM.
The problem is that the fear fostered by our "leaders" is dividing the people against themselves. Rather than blame the politicians we have all been blaming each other thereby making we the people even easier to manipulate. We allow ourselves to become distracted and confused with petty quarreling and the instigators, the opportunists use that time to legislate themselves more power. United we stand divided we fall.
My dad taught my sister and I how to shoot and he always had this main point in support of guns that I would pass on to any children I might have in the future:
"I'd rather have you go on trial for shooting someone than have them on trial for killing you."
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
IMO the majority of gun laws are an infringement. The Founding Fathers couldnt be any more clear when they wrote this. Clear, concise to the point all the interpretation and now regs on guns is the interpretation of radicals who dont want you to be able to protect yourself. They didnt say put limit on how much ammo one can buy, limits on how many rounds a firearm can fire, must have a permit to carry concealed etc etc. Most importantly is why did they create this?! It was to give the people a "check and balance" should all levels fails in govt that they were establishing. It reinforces what is in The Declaration of Independence:
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new guards for their future security"
These guys were giants, geniuses they knew they knew what was being built could go sour and provided the people an avenue to stop a corrupt govt by creating the 2nd which is why it is the 2nd. The first amend is written to speak out freely and do what you can to stop things but if you arent being listened to and then eventually silenced for voicing out corruption criminal acts against the people, voice out against tyranny then the the 2nd was there to stop the tyrants! These fools in DC could never win an argument with ANY of the Founding Fathers they are too stupid and cannot comprehend what the Founders did and why!
In a nutshell use the first amend and talk till you are blue in the face, protest to all means but should it get bad YOU HAVE A RIGHT TO STAND OPPOSED ARMED IF NEED BE AND REMOVE/REPLACE THE CURRENT SET OF LEADERS FROM POWER!! That is why they are in that order!
What you prepared to do? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7jsKLXqA0g
Days of playing nice and by the book have to go. Americans need to wake up and see whats going on. Get out of your shell, cross the line within yourself and TAKE BACK AMERICA through http://www.savingtherepublic.com
I'll remind the readers that the U.S. Supreme Court held that police have no duty to protect the citizenry and any individual who is harmed because of a lack of police response can not sue the cops.
I'm 45 years old and never had much care to have a weapon. The week after he was selected, I went out and bought my first pistol (Kimber). Since that time, every time I see a major step towards socialism, I buy another one. I'm acquiring quite the collection as of now. If they keep doing the things they are doing, I'll be poor by years end. Keep it up Pres.
Folks, BHO has an AGENDA that does not concern itself with reality. He wants what he wants and does not care about the results or the implications. What everyone must decide is: What are you going to do when BHO issues the order to turn in your guns (and he will)? This talk is cheap and easy. A different animal entirely when the feds kick in your door at 5:00 a.m., drag you from your bed and throw you on the floor and handcuff you at the barrel of a submachine gun, and demand to know where your guns are. What will you do? Like Fred says, this is the soft war. The hard one is coming.
Yes, Obama is the BEST GUN SALESMAN!!!! I love my new Sig Sauer's!!!! I love my GUNS and I am not a Republican or Dimocrap! I am just an American exercising my 2nd Amendment Rights! I can't wait till this November so we can take back our Government!
Guns are just a tool! I like to use the term "Self Defense Tool"!!!
The Dems want us under "SOFT TYRANNY" and I will not be a part of it!
This will be the true," Year of the Woman", I.e. Conservative Woman. I am excited and look forward in watching the leftist in this country be expelled from public office all across this great country. From towns and cities and states everywhere. We the people will take back our rightful role, and oust each and every career politician. I hope they are ready for retirement. If not, It is coming. Get your bags, and offices packed up.
Restore the Republic,
God Bless America
More guns may indeed equal less crime. It may be true that more guns are the reason. However, this is irrelevant when speaking about reasons for not disallowing gun ownership, carrying decisions and even use in defense of self family and property.
The interest balancing approach has been discounted because it doesn't matter. It is not a decider. The decider, which includes the words ' shall not be infringed', discounts the merit that increased or decreased crime holds in the decision making process.
This is not about "letting" and "allowing", this is about the unjust action of disallowing. Government, or entities within it, are not tasked with "letting" us exercise our Individual Liberties. (It) They are actually tasked with defending our ability to do so. It is not its (or their) choice to make. The choice belong so us.
Lott is a great warrior in the fight to stop the infringement that has taken place and still takes place. However he makes a mistake when he speaks about government and its employees "letting" us exercise inalienable rights. Our Constitution expressly spells out that it and they do not have the authority to do such a thing in the first place.
Semantics? Well, to that I say,loose and creative wordsmithing is exactly what got us into the situation we are in and it is time to call a spade a spade to get out of it.
From Heller:
“We know of no other enumerated constitutional right whose core protection has been subjected to a freestanding ‘interest-balancing’ approach. The very enumeration of the right takes out of the hands of government – even the Third Branch of Government – the power to decide on a case-by-case basis whether the right is really worth insisting upon. A constitutional guarantee subject to future judges’ assessments of its usefulness is no constitutional guarantee at all. Constitutional rights are enshrined with the scope they were understood to have when the people adopted them, whether or not future legislatures or (yes) even future judges think that scope too broad. We would not apply an “interest-balancing” approach to the prohibition of a peaceful neo-Nazi march through Skokie. See National Socialist Party of America v. Skokie, 432 U. S. 43 (1977) (per curiam). The First Amendment contains the freedom-of-speech guarantee that the people ratified, which included exceptions for obscenity, libel, and disclosure of state secrets, but not for the expression of extremely unpopular and wrong-headed views. The Second Amendment is no different. Like the First, it is the very product of an interest-balancing by the people-which JUSTICE BREYER would now conduct for them anew. And whatever else it leaves to future evaluation, it surely elevates above all other interests the right of law-abiding, responsible citizens to use arms in defense of hearth and home.”
The control over government by gun owners is the only thing our government is concerned about. They couldn't give a rat's behind about our safety.
Anyone who runs a gun shop will tell you that no one has ever sold more guns than BO!
There is no soft Tyranny anywhere. Tyranny is Tyranny. It is not good for anybody, other than the rulers.
I was trying to find that image again for the past couple months. Thanks! I love it.
The Revolution starts the day they try to confiscate my guns!
"When seconds count, the police are only minutes away." I love that image. The lady on the right side is definitely in control of the situation. Which makes the libs grind their teeth, natch.
So the one thing Obama did, er, "correctly", was driven by market demand. What a surprise.
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This just might be an accomplishment Hussein does'nt want to take credit for.But………..
How do you blame it on Bush?
There is an 80 year old veteran still walking around and enjoying life and,………
there is one less homey on the south side of Chicago,…..because,…………
of a gun was in the hands of a law abiding citizen a few days ago.
[...] the rest here: » How Obama Reduced Crime Rates Last Year – Big Government Post a [...]
Handguns; when seconds count the police are just minutes away.
No, thank you. If the LSM had reported it, the story would have focused on the need for more government regulation of ammo. Hope there were no injuries and those guys are able to get everything back up and running so people can get back to work.
Happiness is a new Bushmaster for Christmas…
Of course, you also didn't mention about his prolonging the financial crises to get more people on the gov't dole, in the process causing many illegal immigrants to head back over the border. That right there lowers crime rates by quite a bit all by itself.
Prime example: Post Katrina when residents had their guns confiscated at gunpoint. The chief said no one but law enforcement will have guns. And that's exactly what happened. They took the guns, didn't give receipts and to this very day, law-abiding citizens have yet to get their guns back "without a receipt AND copy of sale with serial number on it". Say it all day long if you like, but if the feds come in and demand your guns…..what WILL you do? THAT is reality!
My husband has tried many times to persuade me that we need a gun. I have avoided the issue, until now. We are going to purchase a gun this weekend.
Better to be tried by twelve than carried by six!
Not only did my wife get swayed to the point of view she even went out and got a concealed carry permit as I did.
Prime example of that is how they have treated the border. It's a war zone down there. Just yesterday I heard a report on the number of times the mexican army has crossed over the border and got into gun battles with US law enforcement. DID YOU SEE THAT ON YOUR NIGHTLY NEWS LAST NIGHT!?
About the only he has done right…lol
Watch the video on this site. How much more of this will happen? Thugs in action.
http://www.ignatius-piazza-front-sight.com/2010/0...
"(Obama's) election caused gun sales to soar, and crime rates to plummet."
Not so. In truth, Obama increased the crime rate after taking office since most of his appointees have either been convicted of criminal activity, are now involved in criminal activity, or intend to engage in criminal activity.
WE, THE PEOPLE, lowered the crime rate when we bought more guns to protect ourselves from him and his band of villains.
mexican army doing incursions into the US?! please tell me you have a source, i have to see/hear/read this.
I hadn't heard that. You have any links?
I have a CCH as well; although I believe that the 2nd amendment entitles me to carry without any permit.
That's been going on for some time now.
As in the picture of the helpless victim, and the gun owner side by side: A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORD! My wife and I were not gun owners before obummer's election. WE ARE NOW!
Thanks to a COMPANY emergency plan, all 100+ workers were safely evacuated. The blast blew out a cinder block wall with extensive damage to the roof. Re-building work is progressing as we speak.
"I'm sorry but I sold all my guns, so there is nothing for you to confiscate" In Texas you don't have to report who you sold them to; just don't say they were stolen because then they will ask about the police report that was filed.
Good for you! BHO says that we need to increase consumer spending, so…..
When our wives begin to listening to us, we know that things are changing for the better! : -)
Another one of Barry's accomplishment. He should proudly wear it on his chest.
Great point Lead, and the sooner we understand this ploy the better off we will be –
now is not the time to worry about minor difference when the whole picture is what we need to
focus on –
best bumper sticker – "If you're not pissed, you're not paying attention"
I heard it on KFI AM 640 radio news on the afternoon commute home yesterday. I am looking it up as we speak.
And this wife went to Front Site! I have my first gun ever, a .38 special S & W, hubby got a .357 revolver, and we now have a Mossberg 12 gauge, 8 shot shotgun added to the 16 gauge and the rifle.
Better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.
One of our local gun stores has Obama's picture on the wall with the caption "Year's Top Salesman!"
Almost makes me wish i had a Liberal living next door, so i could put one of these up
A disarmed society is a 'docile' and 'compliant' society enslaved to the whims of the very few, let's hope people get it before they run over our ability to even speak against their insanity!!
Don't get too comfortable. This administration and the useless nations want our guns and ammo. This will be coming up after the Nov elections.
One way this is now being done is to restrict the accessibility to ammo. Another is to make the purchase of ammo cost prohibitive.
I will not even entertain the thought until someone does something blatantly evil against the people, otherwise I have no desire to go there until it becomes obvious that such a thing has begun in earnest.
Lets hope others have the same gumption and recognize just how importand this inalienable right to self defense is…
Better go buy your GUNS and AMMO FAST, ASAP!!!!
Bury them in the backyard or something!
learn to use it well and practice! ammo is cheap, life is precious.
[...] Read More: By John Lott, Big Government [...]
You should have 40 or 50 of them by now 8D
Get extra magazines. Check the reputation of the different manufacturers before you buy any; some are exactly what you want your worst enemy to try to use.
Try out different holsters. Uncle Mikes (availible in most sporting goods stores) are only good for as long as it takes for a mail order holster to show up, so don't think they will be "good enough". They aren't. They are just good for a spare.
"Ammo"? Walmart for practice. Don't go crazy like I did. Ammo is hard to resell for what you bought it for.
[...] John Lott пишет: I’ll remind the readers that the U.S. Supreme Court held that police have no duty to protect the citizenry and any individual who is harmed because of a lack of police response can not sue the cops. … The First Amendment contains the freedom-of-speech guarantee that the people ratified, which included exceptions for obscenity, libel, and disclosure of state secrets, but not for the expression of extremely unpopular and wrong-headed views. The Second Amendment is no … [...]
[...] The views represented do not necessarily represent those of the Chicago Daily Observer.] President Obama surely didn’t intend it, but he deserves some credit for last year’s 7.4 percent drop in murder rates. His election caused gun sales to soar, and crime rates to [...]
I have a very good friend who's a gunsmith, and who owns his own shop. He's been very enthusiastic about Obama's election, because gun sales started increasing the day after election day, 2008, and they haven't leveled off, yet!
In Illinois, you must have a Firearm Owner's Identification Card (FOID), before you can buy or sell a gun or ammunition. In 2008, the waiting period was about 2 weeks. By December 31, 2008, the waiting period … because of backlog … shot to almost 7 months. A couple of months ago, I had to renew my card, and it only took me 5 days. However, I'm a former police officer and have a "tan card" on file (required to work armed in any capacity) on file with the state. Most people still take 2 months to get their FOID after filing the paperwork.
My most recent purchase was a FN FAL, in 7.62×51 NATO. I purposely bought this rifle for potential defense against a military or paramilitary force. The rifle is extremely accurate, and can hit a target 3xtimes the range of the US M4 rifle, or an AK. I've decided that preparation and defense is better than becoming a refugee or detainee.
I fought for my country in the US Army, as a sniper in Vietnam. But my FN is a statement to the government to be careful before infringing upon my rights.
Another reminder, the police cannot be sued or prosecuted for failing to protect you.
Sorry, Randy. I just noticed your post, and didn't intend to steal your thunder!
When seconds count, the Police are only minutes away!
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You need to be practicing more…
I buy practice 115gr. JHP 9mm by ammo can lots…and burn through 150-200 rounds a month, every month…that's 10+ mags for my carry auto…
I don't go through anything like that for my Ruger, Mossberg, or Bushmaster…but I don't carry that Mossy 590A on my hip everyday, either…
I'm not a Bianchi Cup shooter…but at 10 meters, the bad guy will have three very neat, X-ring holes…two at center-of-mass, chest level…one center-head…El Presidente style…
I also shoot from laying on my back, target behind me, behind barriers, with an air horn screaming as I draw…everything possible to stress me, including a short run…
If you're not rotating your stored ammo stock regularly, shoot more….
Make your own…
Start with a RCBS Rockchucker…
[...] Read Full Article Share the Knowledge: [...]
Progressives hate guns because when people find out they have been had, they will turn to the ones that have lied, cheated and stolen from them.
[...] [...]
lol…Isn't that something, the ONLY thing he did that made us better off was strictly
without his knowledge……
Short on cash. I use a pellet gun for most of my practise, and only burn powder now and then.
"Social status" is a big reason for gun control. Lots of people, not just the actual "upper class", thinks that only the elites should either have firearms or have control of those that do. "Gun Control" is for keeping the common trash in their place.
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