There Is some Budget Good News, but It Is Actually Really Bad News
by Dan MitchellThe Office of Management and Budget has released the President’s FY2011 budget and the Congressional Budget Office has released its semi-annual Budget and Economic Outlook. Much of the coverage of these documents has focused on deficit numbers. This is not a trivial concern, particularly since the Bush-Obama policies of bigger government have dramatically boosted red ink.
But the most important numbers in the budget documents are the estimates of what is happening to government spending. The good news is that burden of government spending is projected to decline over the next few years from about 25 percent of GDP to less than 23 percent of GDP.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that federal government outlays only consumed 18.2 percent of economic output when Bush took office. In other words, notwithstanding the good news cited above, the size and scope of government has increased dramatically since 2001. The worse news is that the long-run spending forecasts show a cataclysmic expansion in the burden of government. The “optimistic” estimate is that the federal government will consume more than 30 percent of GDP by 2050 and 40 percent of GDP by 2080.
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70 Comments
Oh NO HE WON"T. Change the majorities in the House and Senate come November and watch the Gov't TEAT Suckers start to cry. There will be budget cuts to resolve this even if we have to revert to over-rides. BYE-BYE Progressive agenda! DEFUND their pet projects awwwwwwwww buy your own Kleenex.
This article assumes that there will be no economic recovery and tax receipts never recover.
The pent up demand of the last 15 months will continue to grow until consumers are forced to spend again, probably some time in the next year. When that happens we will grow our way out of the recession debt just like we retired the WWII debt. All of these calls to suddenly balance the budget are disingenuous attempts by partisan hacks to derail the recovery. Obama should not listen.
speaking of welfare payments, do you have a job? you're online day and night! sad. the avg user is online 13hrs a week and you're online that much a day. so keep up with your rants that lets the rest of us know you'll never get in the way. congratulations, you are useless.
Keep playing that shell game. Government has only grown under both parties!
Why would there be an economic recovery? We don't produce anything.
The pent up demand of the last 15 months will continue to grow until consumers are forced to spend again,….
So, China gets more money. How does that help us? It actually hurts us – more wealth moved out of the country. See how easily common-sense cuts through the Free-Trade BS?
When that happens we will grow our way out of the recession debt just like we retired the WWII debt.
Yep, all that production is gone now. The goal of the string pullers is to keep us in debt. Read the Creature from Jekyll Island.
let the spin begin! the fringe media will be the primary cheerleaders, spouting with exuberance the talking points of the DNC. the American people are onto this scam, this sham.. this mockery of an administration. Beck had it right when he said that we've got a revolutionary in charge.
America has only sent $114 billion to Israel since it's conception, which is a small drop in the bucket in comparison to the US annual GDP.
We recently gave Hamas $900 million. No problem with that?
We should be supporting our friends and Israel is one of those, even though our past has been shakey at times.
With the GOP running Scozzafavas and Crists every chance they get, do you REALLY think that's gonna happen? Yeah, right!
"only" $114 Billion? Good grief. I appreciate the frankness but perhaps you should be frank with yourself and sign up as a liberal – they are rather generous with other people's money.
We spent $25 billion on the Apollo project and got many returns. What we get from the money we give Israel is MORE COSTS. You can send the bill of the 9/11 attack to Israel since they are responsible for it. That is just a drop in bucket to the enormous costs this "aid" costs the American tax payer.
We recently gave Hamas $900 million. No problem with that?
You have anything to back that up because I don't think that is right. Either way, a drop in the bucket compared to the aid we give the terrorists of Israel (Stern Gang, Irgun, King David Hotel bombing).
We should be supporting our friends and Israel is one of those
Again, you have anything to back that up? Selling our missile technology to China? Some ally. These people are undependable, unstable nutcases.
Thanks Dan. Your articles always brighten my day. I think I'll go pack up and move to Honduras now.
Well, the fault is with those who watch football until the elections. Who cares which party wins if CFR has already chosen both candidates? Does it matter if the representative that votes for the North American Union has a "D" or and "R" by his name?
Bush-Obama fiscal policies is correct, its just the funding directions changed. We need to constantly remind not only the general public, but the political parties that we aren't playing the "blame the last guy, or the new guy" partisan game anymore.
Meet the new boss, the same as the old boss.
Republicans are on notice for their frivolity, the Democrats have been served notice as well. The new political paradigm is that the American People could care less about the singular capitalized letter after a candidates name. I will vote for any person from any party that will uphold the Constitution, and return the Federal Government to its original and Constitutionally chartered origins.
There is this tiny portion of land, Washington D.C., 68 square miles in total. And somehow we have allowed the policies emanating from this little parcel to engulf the future of the entire nation. One "man" in the white house, and 535 "representatives" in congress, wielding 100% power over 300 million Americans.
Does this seem just a little out of sorts to anybody else?
Stop imports?
I guess that you would prefer to go without all kinds of fruits and veggies in the winter, that you've either grown used to having or are too young to remember a time when they weren't available.
When did YOUR ancestors get here? I doubt any of them cam,es over on the Mayflower.
Are you aware that Sephardic Jews came here in very early colonial times?
Most of the outrageous "assault on our culture" has been and is now being committed by born here Americans, whose ancestors were probably here long before yours were.
There is another tiny portion of land that isn't even part of the US that we have somehow allowed to run our government.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0Fs73XZqm8
Woah! I never thought I'd see the day that Dhasselhoff or Mikatollah would bring a semi-salient point to the table in some of their sentences. This site must be having a good influence on them. If they keep this up folks may forget the mountain of asshattery in their previous posts and actually take them seriously.
I guess that you would prefer to go without all kinds of fruits and veggies in the winter, that you've either grown used to having or are too young to remember a time when they weren't available.
You mean the way humans evolved for nearly all of our existence?
I remember tomatoes that tasted like tomatoes, yes.
I'm not quite sure why you have such a boner for Israel, but they're really insignificant in the grand monetary scheme of things. Other than your an anti-semite, I cannot fathom a practical reason for you to target one country, of many, that receive "enormous welfare payments" from the USA. Complain about it all, or don't complain at all…
"Close the borders."
How about keeping them open, and just securing them as the law states now. We don't need to close our citizens in, in order to keep undesirables out…That makes no sense what so ever…!?
"Stop importing products."
Really? If it was that easy then we would have already done that…But as with the borders, no free society benefits from self-dependence in such a manner. Yes we need to lean more toward isolationism, but not to the point of being a recluse in the world market. We need to take care of our own first, then go out of house to get things done. But for any country to think that they can produce all the products their consumers will need is asanine…!
"Stop the assault on our culture through immigration."
What assault? The assault of illegal immigrants on our tax structure? These economic terrorists either need to get a green card, or get the f*$% out…We are a generous nation, if you follow the rules. Just because the country these people come from is hell on Earth, doesn't grant them any sort of amnesty on our soil…!
"Close the borders."
How about keeping them open, and just securing them as the law states now. We don't need to close our citizens in, in order to keep undesirables out…That makes no sense what so ever…!?
"Stop importing products."
Really? If it was that easy then we would have already done that…But as with the borders, no free society benefits from self-dependence in such a manner. Yes we need to lean more toward isolationism, but not to the point of being a recluse in the world market. We need to take care of our own first, then go out of house to get things done. But for any country to think that they can produce all the products their consumers will need is asanine…!
"Stop the assault on our culture through immigration."
What assault? The assault of illegal immigrants on our tax structure? These economic terrorists either need to get a green card, or get the f*$% out…We are a generous nation, if you follow the rules. Just because the country these people come from is hell on Earth, doesn't grant them any sort of amnesty on our soil…!
You must be a buddy of the other anti-semite (and convicted felon) Traficant.
I'm not quite sure why you have such a boner for Israel, but they're really insignificant in the grand monetary scheme of things.
My father was in the Navy during the USS Liberty incident. Some people's fathers didn't come home thanks to that "ally." And they are quite significant monetarily but I focus mostly on aid. Throw in the Madoffs of the world and that is easily trumped, yes.
Other than your an anti-semite, I cannot fathom a practical reason for you to target one country, of many, that receive "enormous welfare payments" from the USA.
Israel uniquely is in the #1 and #2 spot for most aid. #2 is nominally Egypt but the only reason we give them aid is because we give aid to Israel so that goes on their bill as well. Then we give them loans and loan guarantees. (cont….)
Did you know our aid violates our OWN LAWS? Yes, look up the Symington Amendment which makes aid to countries that have not signed the NNPT yet have a nuclear program ILLEGAL. Funny how many special perks this one country gets – a country that is the equivalent to a White Homeland if it was for Whites. Who gets a US tax-payer funded homeland? Only one group? Something fishy about that.
Did you know we guarantee their oil supply EVEN IF it means shortages for Americans? What does that tell you about who our government works for?
Reason enough? Cause I've only scratched the surface……
Has the Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany been cause to any EMPIRE building? …… In order to build an EMPIRE, the US would have to have a sitting government in place
If you can control the government through military threats, what is the difference? We are just doing it mafia-style. Makes you proud, huh? "ooooh say can you seeee……" [wraps self in flag]
He said only $114 billion SINC E IT"S CONCEPTION. That means it's the total over the last 60 YEARS.
Read more carefully before continuing the anti-semitic ranting
Did you say the "King David Hotel"
Dude, didn't this happen around 1948ish.
That's why all things Israel this and Israel that with you.
Man you sure hold a grudge, why not take it back all the way to the Garden of Eden.
Right, and they blew up the King David Hotel 52 years ago.
What with the new taxes, that Obama is about to impose, as well as not renewing Bush's tax cut, forget about "demand", people won't have the money, nor the credit to buy, invest, nor hire more people.
A lot of WW II was expensed through WAR BONDS and that is hardly germane to toady's national debt.
Do these budget numbers include Health Care Reform?
Regardless of the letter after the name, anyone voting for the NAU ought to be hanged immediately.
I still can buy tomatoes that taste like tomatoes; why can't YOU?
That isn't what I'm talking about. I'm talking about having fruits and veggies, in the winter, that aren't caned nor frozen, but FRESH, that are out of season. And that has less than nothing to do with "evolution.
And that is but the tip of the iceberg you hit with your insane idea that we should manufacture everything that we need, with our own raw materials.
Of course we should drill, refine, and use our own oil. OTOH, we must import some material that aren't found here. And add to that, to retool and have people know how to produce XYZ, would take decades and billions of dollars.
The thing is, even in colonial times, we were importing raw materials as well as goods. So where do you want us to be, back in the stone age?
How is that any different from the way we finance the two wars today? The only difference is we are now selling the debt to the Chinese rather than to the American people.
It still took us until the Carter Administration to retire the WWII debt.
How much could we save if Nancy Pelosi flew coach and went on the wagon?
I'll sign up as a liberal as soon as I get the lobotomy. What returns dfid we get from the Apollo project? Some moon rocks and the computer. Great.
If you don't believe we gave $900 mil to Hamas, Google it.
For all your ranting on selling China missile secrets, it's never been proven…ever.
The American people will tolerate, understand and encourage a lot of cuts in the budget…Israel, welfare, military, schools, etc…AS LONG AS THE CONGRESS AND PRESIDENT RECEIVE THE PROPORTIONATE CUTS!!!
BUILD A GIGANTIC BUBBLE OF SOLITUDE AROUND THE UNITED STATES TO RESTORE THE REPUBLIC!!! STOP TOMATOES FROM TASTING LIKE POTATOES AND POTATOES FROM TASTING LIKE GENETICALLY MODIFIED HUMANS GROWN IN THE GROUND TO CREATE AN ARMY OF POTATO-HUMAN HYBRID TERMINATORS TO CONQUER THE WORLD AND STEAL JOBS FROM NATURALLY BORN AMERICANS!!! WHERE IS THE REMAINDER OF THE GDP GOING??? TO THE RICH AND BIG CORPORATIONS!!! GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE 100% OF THE GDP SO THAT IT CAN MAKE SURE THAT IT PROPERLY GOES TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE AND NOT GREEDY WALL STREET BANKERS!!! REVOLUTION!!! REVOLUTION!!! SCOTT BROWN FOR PRESIDENT!!!
Nah, who am I kidding?
Selling WAR BONDS to the American citizenry is a whole different ball game, from selling bonds and other financial instruments to a foreign nation. That you are incapable of seeing that, is astonishing; not to mention appalling.
Most of the European nations whom we lent money to, for WW II, still haven't paid us back; though England has done, IIRC.
When we were a brand new nation, European nations bankrolled us ( buying financial paper from us and/or in outright loans ) , which had this young nation in the red for quite some time.
You may attempt to play games, but your obvious abysmal lack of historical and financial knowledge is tripping you up.
Why don't you read, from a US military report, about the benefits the US military receives from it's aid to Israel (the link is below – and note the .mil portion of the domain name). Hoever, these facts won't matter if you have other motives for disparaging Israel, which I suspect you do.: http://www.disam.dsca.mil/pubs/Indexes/Vol%2010-1/Spiege...
Hey, hey hey- easy on that Nancy bar bill thing you would need that much liquor to wake up next to her would'nt you! And just think if she wasn't smokin those blunts that Barney gives her and gettin all oiled up on that liquior ride she could turn into a real b***ch! She's just another limburger cheese panty bombing deminazi…move along nothing to see here…….and ignore the smell!
Take off the 'caps lock' It is hard for me to read when you are screaming! othrwise i agree with you.
Just HOW do you imagine a REPRESENTATIVE REPUBLIC ( which is what we are ) works?
The problem is the electorate, much of whom are morons and who sent these people to D.C. to begin with.
I'm no expert in either field, but I'm not the one who believes debt to American creditors is noble, while debt to Chinese creditors is bad. Both allowed us to fight the wars "off budget" while the debt continued to mount. Debt is debt.
The European nations who participated in the Marshall Plan paid us back with a complicated mechanism of currency for goods. We were in essence paying to rebuild markets for American exports which in turn strengthened our post war economy. So to say they never paid us back is 1) off topic and 2) false.
While I am against foreign aid except for humanitarian one-time purposes, it should be noted that we have also given over 60 billion to Egypt, billions to India, Pakistan and others who routinely vote against us in the UN . This does not include those African countries whose lifeline is Western aid and who continually denounce the very givers of that "charity" (if hundreds of billions can be termed "charity").
Foreign aid is nothing compared to even the debt on the national debt. It is our unthinking spending without going (to subvert a popular phrase) that has gotten us into this mess. Who do the DC idiots think is going to have to pay back all this?
Not only aren't you an "expert" in either field we've been discussing, you are having a problem comprehending what I have written.
I never said anything at all about the "nobility" of anything. Neither did I bring up the MARSHALL PLAN, which has nothing at all to do with loaning MONEY and/or CREDIT to nations during WW II, not AFTER it, which in when the MARSHALL PLAN went into effect.
Many nations didn't pay those loans back and we didn't demand repayment for what the MARSHALL PLAN cost us; go look it up, as your knowledge of that era is worse than just faulty.
I agree about those who single out Israel for scorn – closet anti-semites. But the problem with the worldwide military bases is that not only is it incredibly expensive but it is all so unneccesary. What other reason would we have for maintaining foreign military bases? The only other one I can come with up is intervention in another nation's internal affairs. Furthermore, their presence makes ludicrous excursions like Iraq more likely. ."Well, we have bases in the area for transportation and supply."
Finally, what possible use can military bases in Britain, Poland and Germany be for the security of the US?
More absurd is our funding mechanism. Money is removed from pay checks and sent to DC. Then these funds (or imaginary dollars "printed" by the Fed) are sent back to the states with mandates that differ according to which party is in power. Naturally, the taxpayer, the source of these funds, is the last in the chain. The cost of transferring this money not to mention the inherent dishonesty of taking from some and giving to others based on politics has to be the dumbest system in history.
Not true. The Symington Amendment bans aid to countries that do not comply with the IAEA ruegulations and inspections and have nothing to do with NNPT.
Israel is out first line of defense so i am ok with the aid we give them.
California gets more aid and is more detrimental to the US than Israel can ever be.
Some service men do not come home at all due to friendly fire. probably more than the 34 that did not come home from the Liberty incident.
Your rant about aid to Egypt is not quite understandable but I am ok with not knowing what you were attempting to say. I feel I've read too much of your posts already.
The past 100 years have been about the Democrats getting what they want and Republicans playing the part of slowing their PROGRESSIVE policies down. Sort of.
This I believe is why Ronald Reagan failed to secure Conservatism in the government. Republicans never had the guts to really pull the reins on Uncle Sam.
Do you think the Republican would ever attempt to bring the Constitution back into focus if they had the numbers?
I don’t but, I don’t see the right leaders for such a thing either.
Could there be a day when Republicans actually reigned in spending and not just taxes? Slash and burn government jobs, policy and unions?
Without this I fear, the Tea Parties are bound to be disappointed and I think the Democrats know this.
When the 135 trillion of unfunded mandates kick in over the next ten-30 years … we will go from Greece to Iceland.
It will be interesting to see how close the estimates come to reality. Anyone want to make a bet they are even close?
I agree. The US has over 700 bases in 130 countries and that's not including garrisons and camps.
We have bases so that we may change policy in a region but that doesn't work like it used to.
I too think we should bring all servicemen back home and clear out of teh bases we have.
In fact, most of the new bases are being established in impovereished areas that permit more permissive environmental regulations so we can totally hose it and then leave without cleaning up after ourselves.
An Army of potato-human hybrid terminators?
Sounds like my in-laws.
I don't buy the estimate that says government spending as a pct of GDP should decline. I think they are making unrelaistic assumptions for GDP growth. Especially since most of their policies are production crushers.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
I don't buy the estimate that says government spending as a pct of GDP should decline. I think they are making unrelaistic assumptions for GDP growth. Especially since most of their policies are production crushers.
http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
Worst ever budget cutting. Ever.
I think I understood you perfectly and stand by my post.
Why would you assume the Chinese have already agreed to purchase all your upcoming debt? They've not said such in any of their own English language trades but expressed very much the opposite. Your president will have to do a lot more than agree to put a sock in it regarding Chinese carbon soot emissions to get more out of them.
You need to read all of the thread before you jump in the middle of it and just start saying stuff.
It's amazing how little coverage of the proposed budget there is in the mainstream media….I guess when you start throwing 3.8 BILLION dollar figures around ,you might start to scare some people;democrats included.
It's the nature of the broken political system we have.Every republican is harrassed by lobbyists and eventually decides to go along with the graft.Even if you made congress a voluntary institution like it was in the beginning, the lobbyist would still be there.Is anyone willing to bulldoze K street in DC?
Obummer must have written off Florida for 2012. First he pisses off the seniors with his toxic health care bill and then he chops NASA off at the knees with his plan to cut the future of American human space flight. In 30 years we will be renting Chinese and Indian spacecraft for our Astronauts and the Kennedy Spaceflight Center will be a theme park. Great plan Obummer, making us a third class technological nation, and increasing the number of unemployed in hard science jobs. Hey maybe some of the NASA people and contractors can catch the tail end of your wonderful stimulus plan. That would be good because it has'nt worked for anyone yet.
You stand in garbage then you start to smell like garbage right Micky?
Or you could just start making sense, pipe dream I admit, but you could try
Dussel dork is that you?
That's funny, mik; really, really, really pathologically funn.
the dollar is less and less appealing and the answer is very simple – the inflationary effects of the feds printing presses are razing the currency to the ground and this is just one video that goes towards explaining why, but do your own research too and you'll find plenty of other independant/objective/informed sources:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzmYI_4XCbM&fe...
btw, by all accounts, the chinese are stock piling gold…
Whose fault is that?
We keep electing them…
OK lets talk USS LIBERTY ATTACK! Israel uses a retailation rate if 100 to 1 for Israelis killed to arabs. If the U.S. used that same rate there would be 3,400 dead IDF forces and 17,400 wounded IDF. and YES I hold a grudge. U.S. Navy 1969-73 REMEMBER THE LIBERTY
Here's my take on Obama's budget
http://truthandcommonsense.com/2010/02/02/obama-s...
Bottom line is he is an ideologue and that is what drives him to say and do what does. Sadly, we are stuck with him for another three years. Hopefully, we can get the Congress to block most of his agenda. If not, we'll be living through the newest version of the New Deal and the Great Society, neither a good deal or anything great to talk about.
Did I already tell you just how I really like just about every subjects on your site ?
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