A friend from Northern Virginia reports that, much like toadstools in the rain, a large number of “Republicans for Connolly” signs sprouted with the opening of the polls.  The signs are in the same color scheme as the more traditional Connolly yard signs.  Apparently, the Connolly campaign gets discounts for bulk printing.

A “Republicans for…” organization would not be a bad strategy for a Democrat in this climate.  However, you would a) want to actually have a few Republicans to point to and b) you would want to launch the organization sooner than 12 hours before the polls close.

Nice try Gerry.  I hope lobbying works at better for you.

A much more shameless act of elephant envy occurred here in Illinois on Friday.  Every ten years, State Supreme Court Justices have to be “retained” by the voters.  Nobody else is on the ballot.  The ballot simply asks whether the Supreme Court Justice should be retained, and sixty percent of the voters have to say “yes.”

In the history of Illinois, no justice has ever not been retained.  These guys die in office.

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In a story that will appeal to lovers of irony and hypocrisy everywhere, and is perhaps illustrative on the micro-level of the attitudes that precipitated this historical wave, Chellie Pingree (ME-01) finds herself down by four to Dean Scontras.

As an aside, I had to look up the state abbreviation for Maine when I wrote that last sentence, because I have never had to use it while working in my day job for Peter Roskam in Congress.  Maine has been pretty blue, and shockingly, nobody has reached out to collaborate on legislative issues. But today, Republicans are within the margin of error on both Congressional seats in Maine.

Back to Pingree.  Pingree was President of Common Cause prior to being elected. During her first term in Congress she lobbied for a ban on private travel for Members of Congress.

Here are Pingree’s remarks at a Congressional hearing:

“Most Americans never have and never will fly on a chartered jet, much less a fancy corporate jet complete with wet bar and leather couches. So when members of Congress constantly fly around on corporate jets and pay only the cost of a commercial ticket, it contributes to the corrosive public perception that members of Congress are more like the fat cats of Wall Street than they are like the rest of us.”

Now that Pingree is dating hedge fund manager Donald Sussman, she apparently feels no shame in catching a ride on his jet. As a bonus, Sussman is under investigation by the SEC.

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It wouldn’t be an election without an October surprise, and sure enough, the 2010 cycle will not disappoint.  This time, it’s not some 11th hour accusation about unpaid taxes, illegal nannies or secret love affairs, but an appearance from the Mad Hatter of pollsters whose crazy talk in the final days of the election is making black sound like white and and Nancy Pelosi sound…sane. Well, almost.

Who is the Mad Hatter of the 2010 elections?  Friends, follow me on a trip down the rabbit hole…

Dave Schweikert (AZ 5), who I met while in AZ in August and really like, has been ahead consistently by six to eight points against Rep. Harry Mitchell through the first of September.

So I became quite concerned when two polls in October showed him down by seven!  A 15 point swing in 30 days!

This is particular bizarre since Arizona is ground zero for voter angst this cycle.  My uncle, a retired professor of labor law, has never voted for a Republican in his life.  This summer, he started a blog against Harry Mitchell.  And it is nasty.

What moved him to do so?  His daughter (my cousin) narrowly avoided two rounds of layoffs from a major pharma company, each accompanied by a letter citing “recent changes in health care policy.” His premiums have gone up 15%.  Both his kids are under water on their houses.

Polls are moved by news. What could be happening in Arizona to turn Schweikert’s race around and make people like my uncle abandon his blog and let bygones be bygones?

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Last week on the PBS NewsHour, Judy Woodruff asked Nancy Pelosi if the GOP would take back the house.  Pelosi replied “We take it one district at a time.”

“Will the Republicans take back the House?” is perhaps the most frequently asked question in Washington, and is usually followed up with “By how much?”  Regardless of what you think about Speaker Pelosi, the lady didn’t get to be Speaker of the House by not being able to count votes. So lets have a look “…one district at a time.”

Republican challengers and open seat candidates lead in at least 51 House districts currently held by Democrats, according to public polling.

Following Nancy’s methodology, if the election were held on October 9 instead of November 2, the GOP would gain back the majority with 230 seats, assuming all tied races and races where Dems cling to a narrow lead break against the Republicans. Note that 17 more seats are within the margin of error of a standard poll.

Thanks, Nancy, for the vote of confidence.

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