Present at the Creation: Adam Hasner, with Marco Rubio Against the Florida GOP Establishment

“A day in politics is like an eternity. A lot of recent events have altered the political landscape,” Adam Hasner told me by phone. Until last week was running for the U.S. Senate, but he is now running for the congressional seat vacated by Allen West.

Though Hasner hesitates to compare himself to West, the two have a lot in common. They are both principled, “minorities of minorities” who have to make  the case to groups not necessarily receptive to the conservative message. “When you are a black Republican or a Jewish Republican, you have to be even more firm in your beliefs and more principled,” Hasner explains.

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This has been a tough week for President Obama. He picked a fight with the Catholic Church, the largest charity in the world, and his poll numbers took a nose dive. And when he called for a compromise, most Catholics and Americans heard “uncle.” Today, Rasmussen released a poll showing that just 27% of the nation’s voters approve of Obama’s performance.  Thirty-seven percent strongly disapprove.

The Obama administration recently ruled that all insurance policies must offer contraceptive services with no co-payments required. In and of itself, that decision is neither positive nor negative. Forty-three percent of voters favor it, while 46 percent are opposed. Among Catholics, though, according to Scott Rasmussen, only 28% believe religious organizations should be required to implement rules that violate church teachings. Sixty-five percent are opposed, which is true even though many Catholics disagree with the Pope on this matter. The only Catholics that agree with Obama are those that already voted for him. Only 39% of Catholic voters approve of Obama’s job performance today, compared to 54% in November 2008.

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Obama's Alinsky-Style Power Analysis

New York Times columnist Jodi Kantor’s book, The Obamas, tries very, very hard to paint a sympathetic picture of her eponymous subject matter–she gets her digs in against the supposedly racist tea party everywhere she can–but every once and a while the truth cracks through. Take this interview at the Texas Book Festival for example:

The Obamas often don’t mingle freely – they often just stand behind the rope and reach out to shake hands but he sees Jerry Kellman, his old community organizing boss, and he’s so happy to see him he reaches across and pulls him in. And Obama says, “I’m still organizing.” It was a stunning moment and when [Kellman] told me the story, it had echoes of what Valerie Jarrett had told me once – “The senator still thinks of himself as a community organizer.” How fully has this guy resolved himself to what he’s really doing? On the one hand, he’s passing these backroom deals to pass health care reform, but on the other he’s telling his old boss he’s still a community organizer. I think that plays into what will happen in the 2012 race.

Jerry Kellman was Barack Obama’s former boss, a student of Saul Alinsky’s in the 1970s, and a permanent fixture of the progressive left in Chicago.

While some have downplayed Obama’s connections to Saul Alinsky, Kellman’s link is pretty easy to discern.

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Fear the sweater vest!

So much for Governor Mitch Daniels’ “truce” on social issues. Rick Santorum refused to raise the white flag on his principles and charged ahead. Tonight he celebrates a trifecta victory in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado, all but shattering the myth of Romney’s inevitable cruise to victory in the presidential primary.

I’ll admit it. I didn’t see it coming. To be sure, this victory comes with caveats, as I wrote here. Santorum picked up only five delegates tonight and has 22 delegates to Romney’s 106, but it’s a move in the right direction. (The delegate count is here.)

But Santorum understands something that few of the other candidates can put into words: that the power to mandate is the power to compel and compulsion must be grounded on something higher than the mere will of the sovereign. This is a very effective argument against Barack Obama, but it it also a very effective one against Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who also supported the Wall Street bailouts, cap and trade (taxing breathing) and of course, the individual mandate in health insurance. Both Gingrich and Romney are essentially progressives in their view that there is nothing government mustn’t do.

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Santorum: Not Much of an Opening for the Former Senator

Several sources are predicting a Santorum surge in Missouri and Minnesota tonight, but there’s reason for pause before we order out the “Rick 2012″ bumper stickers. Caucuses depend on two things: money and organization. Santorum has neither. Despite an impressive win in Iowa, it is getting harder and harder for him to keep up, because he is second to last in the delegate count with only eight so far.   That may well change tonight, but here are some reasons to be skeptical of a Santorum win, even if he manages to pull off a victory in Missouri or Minnesota:

1. Even if Santorum wins in Missouri, it’s nothing more than a beauty contest. Knowing full well that their vote won’t have any effect on the delegate count, election officials are predicting that only 23% of party loyalists will bother showing up to the polls, according to stl.today.com. Given that Newt Gingrich’s name isn’t on the ballot, Santorum is hoping to show that his victory in the Show Me State will show GOP activists he’s the best anti-Romney. “Protest vote” or not, Santorum needs the win, but what if he loses to Romney in a symbolic race?
2. Santorum isn’t on the ballot in several other states, including Indiana and Virginia, meaning he will forgo 46 and 49 delegates respectively. Santorum is also not on the ballot in Washington, D.C. and lacks full delegate slates in North Dakota, Ohio, and Illinois.

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Romney greets a voter in Maine

Mitt Romney has now decisively won (or statically tied) in four states that went for Obama in 2008: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and Nevada. He will assuredly win in Colorado and Arizona–two other parts of the Mormon corridor–and in Michigan, where he is a favored son.

And yet all but Arizona (which John McCain, a carpet bagger, barely held) went to Barack Obama in 2008. What does this mean?  For Republican primaries, this is very odd. No presidential candidate in American history has ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina.

In Nevada, Romney won among nearly every group he was expected to (only 9 percent of Mormons voted against him) and did nicely among groups he wasn’t expected to (the Tea Partiers and evangelicals). It may well be that the evangelicals and Tea Parties that voted against him in Iowa and South Carolina were an aberration.

His challenge, though, will be to win in a red state and he hasn’t done it and the emerging narrative of the 2012 GOP race is this: Will Romney win 1144 delegates before the convention in Tampa or will he have to fight it out at the convention?

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After spurning Trump debate, Romney takes his endorsement

Nevada, or, as I like to call it, “Snowfall,” may be poorly named after the blizzard of ads we’ve been seeing elsewhere in Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa; but beneath the calmness and lack of exposure is a well-oiled strategic machine that is methodically getting out the vote.

If the latest poll is to be believed, Mitt Romney might just strike political gold in the “Silver State.” Romney is the favorite of 50% of likely GOP caucus-goers, according to the Democratic-leaning polling firm Public Policy Polling. He’s leading his next closest rival, Newt Gingrich, by 25 points. Ron Paul is third at 15 percent, and Rick Santorum is fourth at 8 percent.

Nevada has been particularly hard hit by the economic downturn, with a high number of home foreclosures and an unemployment rate that recently soared to an all-time high of 14.9%. In other words, Nevada’s looking for a turnaround; Nevada Republicans think that the guy who turned around the Olympics next door might be able to help.

For the Mitt supporters out there, Romney is doing especially well in the state that went for Barack Obama in 2008, with 55% of the vote. I quote the PPP poll:

Romney hits the 70% favorability mark in Nevada, something we’ve seen for him in very few states. Just 25% see him unfavorably. That’s partially due to an 89/8 standing with Mormons, but he’s at a still very strong 64/30 with non-Mormons as well. One thing that’s contributing to Romney’s strength in Nevada is a strong advantage on the electability question. 56% think he would be the strongest candidate against Barack Obama this fall with no one else topping 21%.

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Romney at the SLC Olympics

Mitt Romney, in pledging to turn around the Olympics in 2002, had promised to restore the honor and integrity of the scandal-clouded Salt Lake City. The Games captured the world’s attention and became all the more urgent after terrorists attacked us on 9-11. But while Romney invoked the wellspring of American patriotism after the attacks, he neglected their heroes, the fallen firefighters of that early September morning.

Romney’s executive assistant, Donna Tillery, twice denied requests to provide free or discounted tickets to widows and orphans of the felled firefighters but gave them for free to Utah legislators just six weeks later, according to a new book, The Real Romney (HarperCollins, 2012).

Tillery sent e-mails to A.J. Barto, a former Salt Lake City firefighter helping the 9-11 widows and orphans, citing a policy barring giveaways, but Romney gave 100 free surplus tickets ($885 each) to Utah legislators. “I was outraged at the hypocrisy,” Barto told Kranis and Helman. “In less than two months, he went from saying, ‘We’re going to run a tight ship’ to throwing out free tickets to a group of people who could help him politically.” (221)

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It seems a foregone conclusion that Mitt Romney will win the Republican primary in Florida.

This is good news for those of us that support Mitt Romney, as it means he will have won (or effectively tied) three Republican primaries in swing states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida) and is one step closer to winning the nomination.

Still, there are a few questions I’ll have as the numbers roll in.

Let’s call them the seven “Ms” of Mitt Romney.

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Mitt Romney at Staples

Tom Stemberg, the co-founder and former CEO of Staples, has been on the stump for Mitt Romney, telling Fox News last week that “[Romney] was the inspirational leader and while Staples may have existed without him, I doubt it would have been nearly as big or successful without him.”

But without Stemberg, it’s doubtful RomneyCare (and therefore ObamaCare) would have happened at all, a new book reveals. According to The Real Romney, released earlier this month, Stemberg is credited with coming up with the idea:

… Stemberg decided to challenge his comrade to think big. “We were talking about a bunch of stuff,” Stemberg recalled. “I said, ‘Mitt, if you really want to do a service to the people of Massachusetts, you should find a way of getting health care coverage to them.’” (263)

Romney was initially doubtful of the feasibility of what would become RomneyCare, but Stemberg was persistent, telling him, “You can find a way.” “The next thing I know, [Romney's] hard at work, actually trying to do it,” Stemberg later recalled. “He called to tell me I gave him the idea.” (264)

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Governor Bill Weld and Mitt Romney, circa 1990 (Photo courtesy of the Boston Globe)

In his campaign for the presidency, Mitt Romney often touts his job creating record as the CEO of Bain Capital, a very successful private equity firm he left for politics in 1999. His critics, meanwhile, attack that record, saying that he was a corporate raider who cut jobs and put profits ahead of people. The truth, as always, is somewhere in between. But there’s one jobs record that is easily verifiable: that of state workers in Massachusetts.

“[Romney's] cuts to the state bureaucracy, however, turned out to be fairly modest,” write Boston Globe reporters Scott Helman and Michael Kranish in the newly released book, The Real Romney.  ”After four years, he reduced the payroll of agencies under his direct control by 603 jobs, according to his administration’s tally.”

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Last week I wrote about Damon Corp. and Mitt Romney’s ties to a company that had committed one of the largest Medicare fines in Massachusetts history ($119 million) and how Rick Tyler of Newt Gingrich’s Super Pac was seeking to make it a part of the debate in Medicare-dependent Florida. The full video is here:

Today, the Democratic National Committee has released a memo criticizing Mitt Romney and his involvement, which it sent to Politico.  The DNC has deliberately connected the dots to Governor Rick Scott, the unpopular Republican governor who was once called the “Madoff of Medicare” after he was forced to resign as CEO of a company involved in what became the largest Medicare fraud to date.

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It’s always the little things that make me miss George W. Bush. Yes, his public profligacy gave us Obama, which in turn gave us the Tea Party. New York Times reporter Jodi Kantor’s book, The Obamas, makes me love him all the more. The book gushes a little much about Michelle Obama’s sense of style.

We learn, this, for instance:

[The First Lady] hired a wardrobe assistant; when she traveled abroad, she wanted to bring her own hair and makeup assistants; and to redecorate the private quarters of the White House, she passed over little-known designers in favor of Michael Smith, who had done houses for Steven Spielberg and Rupert Murdoch. (85)

(A few days after the inauguration we learn that Michael Smith had also redone the executive suite of John Thain, the fired CEO of Merrill Lynch, for $1.2 million after having gotten $20 billion bailout money.)

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Tim Scott (R-South Carolina)

Earlier this week, Congressmen Allen West and Tim Scott, former congressman J. C. Watts, congressional hopeful Star Parker, and other prominent black conservatives held the Black Conservative Forum to discuss blacks and the Republican Party. The forum, broadcast by C-Span, was well attended, though neither Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee bothered to show up. Rep. Jim Jordan of the Republican Study Committee showed up with only a few minutes to spare and Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, showed up late.

It’s a shame that the talent scouts in our party didn’t bother showing up. Had they, they would have noticed this exchange in which Tim Scott demolished the latest lie about school choice: that racist prep schools, are not intransigent prep schools, are the impediment to educational progress in the black community.

“There are still those schools that would deny access to African-Americans. They are fewer than when I was there, but they are still there.”

Scott quickly showed the silliness of Cleaver’s question by pointing out that waiting for mythical racist schools to become non-racist would mean waiting forever because they don’t exist.

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Earlier today the Mitt Romney campaign released a video of the 1994 debate he had with Ted Kennedy where a younger Mitt Romney argues against a government takeover of health care.

But in April 12, 2006 at a Faneuil Hall singing ceremony, Mitt Romney actually saluted Ted Kennedy, the very man he debated at Faneuil Hall in 1994 as a “parent” of healthcare. Then Romney celebrated Kennedy’s ability to get a federal monies for their signature health care bill. Now Romney makes a states’ rights appeal and says that the Massachusetts plan was for Massachusetts and didn’t involve the other states.

According to NBC News’ Michael Isikoff, White House visitors logs reveal that Romney’s health care advisers and experts repeatedly met with senior Obama administration officials in 2009, while Obama’s health care plan was being drafted.  Indeed when Mitt Romney argued that Barack Obama ought to have called him and asked him what worked and what didn’t, Romney neglected to mention that three of his own advisers decamped to Washington so Obama had little need to phone him.

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Last night President Obama renewed his calls for a so-called “middle class tax” cut that would all but kill Social Security:

“Right now, our most immediate priority is stopping a tax hike on 160 million working Americans while the recovery is still fragile. People cannot afford losing $40 out of each paycheck this year. There are plenty of ways to get this done. So let’s agree right here, right now: No side issues. No drama. Pass the payroll tax cut without delay.”

And yet only two paragraphs later, he said this:

Alas, in calling for a renewed payroll tax holiday, President Obama continues to raid Social Security and imperil the retirement account that many Americans have paid into and continue to depend upon.

On the one hand, he raids the Social Security trust fund, while on the other he attacks Republicans for threatening Social Security.  Republicans ought not let him get away with such transparent chutzpah.

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Barack Obama is no Lincoln

“[Barack Obama] didn’t get it right,” says Harry V. Jaffa, professor emeritus of Claremont McKenna College, senior fellow at the Claremont Institute, and author of two influential books on Lincoln.

Jaffa was referring to this quotation from President Obama.

“I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.”

Professor Jaffa noted that this quotation leaves out a great deal. The 93-year-old Jaffa recited the full statement from Lincoln’s speech, “The Nature and Objects of Government, with Special Reference to Slavery” (July 1, 1854) by memory:

“The legitimate object of government is to do for a community of people whatever they need to have done, but cannot do at all, or cannot so well do, for themselves in their separate and individual capacities.”

Notice the difference? The emphasis is on the need to have done, not on government doing the action. “That distinction was missing from his quotation,” Jaffa explains. Yet Obama has repeatedly invoked this misleading Lincoln quotation on both the campaign trail and during his presidency.

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Last night, at the State of the Union address, President Obama spoke of a recovery, but the evidence for such a recovery doesn’t really exist.

The national unemployment is now 8.5% (December’s), its lowest level since January 2009, but while some saw this welcome news as something to celebrate, it hides a much darker economic picture: the jobs report vastly undercounts the unemployment rate. Moreover, as of this writing, we don’t know if December’s jobs report is a trend, or if, as some economists predict, economic growth will slow in the first quarter of 2012, forestalling some of the gains made. In November, the unemployment rate fell from 9% to 8.6%, but this was not due to an increase in jobs, but due to a decrease in the numbers of people “actively seeking” them. “The 315,000 who dropped out of the labor market exceeded the 120,000 new jobs,” notes Edward Luce, former speechwriter to then Treasury Secretary and Obama economic advisor Larry Summers in The Financial Times. “If the same number of people were looking for work today as in 2007, the jobless rate would be 11%.”  In December 2007, the U.S. economy employed 146 million; today, four years later, it employs 140 million. The population has grown; the number of jobs has declined.

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