It wouldn’t be an election without an October surprise, and sure enough, the 2010 cycle will not disappoint.  This time, it’s not some 11th hour accusation about unpaid taxes, illegal nannies or secret love affairs, but an appearance from the Mad Hatter of pollsters whose crazy talk in the final days of the election is making black sound like white and and Nancy Pelosi sound…sane. Well, almost.

Who is the Mad Hatter of the 2010 elections?  Friends, follow me on a trip down the rabbit hole…

Dave Schweikert (AZ 5), who I met while in AZ in August and really like, has been ahead consistently by six to eight points against Rep. Harry Mitchell through the first of September.

So I became quite concerned when two polls in October showed him down by seven!  A 15 point swing in 30 days!

This is particular bizarre since Arizona is ground zero for voter angst this cycle.  My uncle, a retired professor of labor law, has never voted for a Republican in his life.  This summer, he started a blog against Harry Mitchell.  And it is nasty.

What moved him to do so?  His daughter (my cousin) narrowly avoided two rounds of layoffs from a major pharma company, each accompanied by a letter citing “recent changes in health care policy.” His premiums have gone up 15%.  Both his kids are under water on their houses.

Polls are moved by news. What could be happening in Arizona to turn Schweikert’s race around and make people like my uncle abandon his blog and let bygones be bygones?

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Today, in 1867, the United States took possession of Alaska.

There is a dangerous trend moving through the top most ranks of the Obama administration, and no I am not talking about Socialism.  Just because this progressive administration believes that government should control industry and our personal lives does not mean that our President is a socialist. And I am not talking about the rumor that the administration is trying to stifle first amendment speech.  Just because they attack every broadcaster that disagrees with their agenda and threaten every business that points out a flaw in their legislation it does not mean that they are trying to stymie an open discussion of the issues. No this trend is much more nefarious than that. Some of the President’s closest advisers, have developed issues with…well beastiality.

That’s right, we have learned for example, that when David Axelrod leaves the White House every night, he finds time to stop at the Washington DC Zoo, and well, lets just say he accepts foreign donations.

I have been asked about these charges, specifically the New York Times looked into Axelrod’s love life specifically and said that Axelrod is not putting any part of himself into foreign objects. He has been spending lots of time at the petting zoo, said the times but the only thing being stroked is his ego. There is no evidence says the Times, that David Axelrod has a “sheep” problem. Bob Schieffer of CBS News says that Axelrod’s animal problem is just peanuts.

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It’s fascinating to read Progressives as they think through a difficult policy problem. Kevin Drum writes (at Mother Jones!) that we can’t improve education or mitigate poverty:

“I continue to think that the biggest problem here is simply that no one has any really compelling answers. . . You can go down the list of every ed reform ever touted, and they either can’t scale up, turn out to have ambiguous results when proper studies are done, or simply wash out over time. . .

So is the answer to address concentrated poverty? Sure. Except that, if anything, attempts to address poverty have a worse track record than attempts to improve education.

I would really, really like someone to tell me I’m wrong. So far, though, no one has. At least, not to my satisfaction. But I’m willing to be schooled if anyone thinks I’m missing the big picture here.”

Wow, Progressives really are depressed this year. Ezra Klein mostly agrees, Matt Yglesias and Kevin Carey seem more optimistic. But I doubt any of them have compelling answers to Drum’s concerns.

So Kevin, Ezra, I’m here to tell you . . . you’re wrong. Let me rephrase that. You are right that all your Progressive solutions to these problems are perpetual and necessary failures. But there is a solution.

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Here are a handful of the posters being used in the United Kingdom to fight the perversely-destructive proposal to increase tax rates on capital gains. (for an explanation of why the tax should be abolished, see here)

Which one is your favorite? I’m partial to the last one because of my interest in tax competition.

But this isn’t just a popularity contest. With Obama pushing for higher capital gains rate in America, it’s important to find the most persuasive ways of educating people about the damage of class-warfare tax policy.

By the way, “CGT” is capital gains tax, and “Vince” and “Cable” refers to Vince Cable, one of the politicians pushing this punitive class-warfare scheme.

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From The Hill:

Democratic leaders in the House and Senate criticizing GOP groups for allegedly funneling foreign money into campaign ads have seen their party raise more than $1 million from political action committees affiliated with foreign companies.

House and Senate Democrats have received approximately $1.02 million this cycle from such PACs, according to an analysis compiled for The Hill by the Center for Responsive Politics. House and Senate GOP leaders have taken almost $510,000 from PACs on the same list.

The PACS are funded entirely by contributions from U.S. employees of subsidiaries of foreign companies. All of the contributions are made public under Federal Elections Commission rules, and the PACs affiliated with the subsidiaries of foreign corporations are governed by the same rules that American firms’ PACs or other PACs would face.

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Many Californians live in California because they love the natural beauty that surrounds them at every turn. The beaches, the mountains and the desert are, in my mind, some of California’s greatest assets. There is nothing quite as satisfying as waking up on a morning like today and seeing the crisp outline of the San Bernardino mountain range capped in snow while enjoying 70 degree weather.

If we are being honest, the weather and natural beauty are probably some of the only things keeping many Californians from fleeing the state because of high taxes, unemployment, an inept state government and an oppressive business environment. It would make sense then, that we should try to protect those natural resources at all costs. This is the garbage that the opponents of Prop 23 would have you believe, where in today’s world everything not “green” might as well be labeled “poison”.

Take a look at just what Prop 23 is up against. In 2006, the California legislature passed AB 32, also known as the Global Warming Solutions Act. The mere name of the bill should give you the idea that they were trying to compensate for something with that lofty title, namely- common sense. What AB 32 did was create a government entity with incredible power not only to levy regulations on businesses that emit greenhouse gasses but also to create cap-and-trade laws to slow CO2 emissions.

The grand plan for AB 32 is to return California to 1990 levels of emissions over the course of 14 years, making 2020 the target year to achieve environmental nirvana. Obviously, reducing emissions isn’t a terrible idea… in a vacuum. But we don’t live in a vacuum and other factors have to be taken into account, mainly the economic cost and the loss of freedom that would come from turning over something so arbitrary as ‘the right to emit’ to the jurisdiction of the government.

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Today, in 1931, Al Capone is convicted of income tax evasion.

Sometimes, when I think about the Left and what they hope to accomplish with their Big Government, it all boils down to motive for me: what’s the point of being able to tell people what to do if you don’t get to TELL THEM WHAT TO DO.

Distrust of Elitism in modern American politics is not just jealousy and it’s certainly not unfounded. There are Moral, Motive and Practicality objections to it, and if you can spare nine minutes of your otherwise productive time, maybe we can walk through them…

Two months ago, I warned you about President Barack Obama’s EPA blending politics and science.

Now, according to an EPA news release issued Wednesday, the “blending” process appears to be complete:

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today waived a limitation on selling fuel that is more than 10 percent ethanol for model year 2007 and newer cars and light trucks. The waiver applies to fuel that contains up to 15 percent ethanol – known as E15 – and only to model year 2007 and newer cars and light trucks. This represents the first of a number of actions that are needed from federal, state and industry towards commercialization of E15 gasoline blends. EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson made the decision after a review of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) extensive testing and other available data on E15’s impact on engine durability and emissions.

What does that mean for American consumers accustomed to gasoline that already contains up to 10 percent ethanol? Plenty! In fact, the decision could do more harm than good, according to Jack Gerard, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute.

In August, Gerard said this decision — made even before key safety and effectiveness studies have been completed — “could threaten vehicle performance and safety, void manufacturers’ warranties, confuse consumers – and create a public backlash against renewable fuels.”

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Had Mario Puzo ever collaborated with George Orwell, one might easily imagine a sinister or otherwise shadowy character brandishing the honorific, “The Intellectual Godfather of Private Equity Tax Hikes.” Sadly, the genius of these two novelists is unnecessary in a world run by Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Meet the all too real Victor Fleischer who is indeed “sometimes called the Intellectual Godfather of Private Equity Tax Hikes.” The story of his quest for academic tenure is as frightening a plot as any work of fiction.

In 2007, Fleischer authored a paper titled, “Two and Twenty: Taxing Partnership Profits in Private Equity Funds,” in which he argued that private equity managers had taken advantage of a “loophole” in the tax code to [gasp!] make some money. As Fleischer has said, “It was stunning to me that you had some of the wealthiest people in the country paying a low rate on their labor income.”

Of course, private equity managers are the black-hatted proxy for most partnerships under the tax code, including real estate partnerships and even many “mom and pop” shops. And by “loophole in the tax code,” one can easily conclude Fleischer simply refers a feature of the tax code he doesn’t like because it allows people to “pay a low rate.”

Nevertheless, this isn’t a story about an egghead who wrote a paper that was well received within the brick and mahogany walls of higher education. No, our plot takes a dark turn when Mr. Fleischer’s paper, “landed with some Congressional staff members, who were looking for ways to pay for a rollback in the alternative minimum tax.”

“In 2007, a draft version of my paper on carried interest helped prompt Congress to propose Section 701 of the tax code, which would tax a portion of carried interest as ordinary income rather than a capital gain,” boasted Fleischer on his blog, which he calls – get this – A Taxing Blog. Despite aggressive efforts on the part of many liberal members who have been inspired by Mr. Fleischer’s paper, however, Congress has yet to pass this massive jobs-killing tax increase, which Larry Kudlow has labeled “a war on prosperity.”

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Believe it or not, with jobs falling for four consecutive months and unemployment stubbornly high near 10 percent, President Obama is out on the campaign trail bashing businesses and promoting class warfare. Huh? Oh my gosh is he off message.

He’s slamming the Chamber of Commerce for allegedly using foreign money in campaign ads, even though there’s not one shred of evidence of this. Huh (again)? Is the Chamber really a big election-year issue? Is it causing high unemployment?

Of course, Obama never mentions the unions, including the SEIU and AFL-CIO, and all their foreign money from their big international affiliates. Instead, he extends his own cast of villains, attacking special interests, Wall Street banks, corporations, the oil industry, the insurance industry, credit-card companies, AIG, and ExxonMobil. ExxonMobil? What did they do? Oh, they’re an oil company.

Phew. Kind of anti-business, wouldn’t you say?

Obama then blasts millionaires and billionaires, waging war on capital and investors, too. Next he talks about getting young people, African Americans, and union members to the polls. Even more division. Even more class warfare.

All this, of course, from the “post-partisan” president who was going to bring us all together for change.

But what’s truly incredible about Obama’s pre-election performance is how it totally misses the mark on the issues that really matter, like high unemployment, low growth, big-government spending, Obamacare, and tax hikes. That’s the stuff people are really talking about.

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No matter what happens on November 2^nd, 2010 will be the year that conservatives won.  Patriotic conservatives of all flavors, have risen up in extraordinary ways, in every corner of the country.  It appears all but certain that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will be dethroned. Dick Morris even predicts as many as 100 new Republican Congressmen giving many people really high expectations for the new Congress.

Others fear that for all their trouble from organizing, holding rallies and knocking on doors, they will only replace the leftist Democrats with RINO Republicans who will squander the victory.  Will we get Speaker Boehner, or a fresh new conservative leader who will truly take a big stick to big government.   A closer look at the numbers should give conservatives reason to be really excited and also a cause for continued resolve.

If you want a conservative Congress, you have to ask yourself just what kind of conservative are you after.  Drew Kurlowski, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Missouri who studies voting behavior and partisanship, referred me to a dataset popular with political science academics called DW-Nominate.  It is a tremendous resource that meticulously compiles the voting records of the Congress going back to the 1st Congress.  If you want to know who George Washington’s favorite conservative was, this is your site.  Moreover, they settled on a definition of “conservative” that is tremendously useful.  Move over “fiscal conservative” and “social conservative” and make room for (limited) “government intervention in the economy”.  Let’s call it L’GIE.  So who are the liggies?

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On Tuesday, the Obama administration finally lifted its moratorium on drilling in the Gulf.  However, concerns are already being voiced that the administration is keen to maintain a de facto moratorium that could keep future energy exploration from occurring in the area.

Federal regulators are still writing up regulations that will apply to future drilling, and concern exists with regard to them on two fronts.  First, it is unclear how onerous new regulations will be.  But of deeper concern, say experts, is the prospect that regulation could roll out over many months.  Industry operators have indicated that this will make it hard to set budgets for ongoing exploration.

Dr. Joseph Mason, who has extensively studied the impact of administration policy and proposals with regard to energy, including the moratorium itself, recently told the Christian Science Monitor that “when [energy firms] can’t plan around [regulation], they move.”

That is also a result that business groups say could obtain if the administration continues to pursue several tax increases targeted at the energy industry.  The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has recently voiced concern regarding some $38 billion in new taxes on the oil and gas industry proposed in President Obama’s FY2011 budget.  Business leaders say those tax increases, if implemented, could threaten millions of jobs, reduce domestic economic output, and create incentives for energy companies to relocate outside the U.S. on a long-term basis.

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The title is truly a misnomer, because as you’ll hear, this group is anything but. Pat Caddell, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, and National Review’s Jim Geraghty take no prisoners in a very spirited discussion about many of the important races around the country, whether or not folks in other states may get the chance to vote for the Governor, the Republican’s overall national strategy, the Tea Party, and a certain candidate in Delaware. For links mentioned in this podcast or to comment directly, please visit us at Ricochet.com.

Today, in 1978, John Paul II was elected Pope. It was the beginning of the end of the Cold War.

Health care reform is playing a role in a northeastern Pennsylvania Catholic hospital chain’s decision to sell by the end of this year.

Mercy Health Partners has served the Scranton area since the Sisters of Mercy opened Mercy Hospital the city in 1917, but the new law may have influenced the timing of its decision.

The hospital chain runs three hospitals and three outpatient centers.

The law’s burdens mean more spending and reduced federal contributions for the hospital chain over the next five years.

“Health care reform is absolutely playing a role. Was it the precipitating factor in this decision? No, but was it a factor in our planning over the next five years? Absolutely,” Mercy Health Partners President and CEO Kevin Cook told WNEP, a Scranton-Wilkes Barre TV station.

The hospital chain’s finances remain in the black, but Cook said Mercy Health Partners lacks the resources to keep up with the local community’s projected needs over the next five years.

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In today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Francis Cianfrocca to discuss the Ben Bernanke’s latest comments, the huge foreclosure mess, and Mitch Daniels’ call for new taxes, including a VAT.

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