Scott Rasmussen now predicts that the Republicans will pick up fifty-five seats in the House. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia still has the pick-up at forty-seven but says that, if forced to tweak the numbers right now, he would increase his estimate of Republican gains by single digits – which is to say, he agrees with Rasmussen.

There are pollsters out there who are playing games, as a glance at the polls for the Senate race in West Virginia should make clear – and, of course, it is easy to play games. If one wants to encourage the Left and discourage potential Republican voters and donors, all that one has to do is to base one’s poll on the presumption that the percentage of self-described Democrats within the voting public in 2010 will be equal to the percentage in 2008.

Sabato and his associates and Rasmussen are not, however, among the gamesters. Both are aiming at accuracy. Sabato and company have a reputation to uphold (and, in the academic world, that is all-important), and Rasmussen is a nonpartisan pollster who attracts clients by way of demonstrated precision. Neither outfit can afford to make a fool of itself.

I nonetheless think that both are greatly underestimating the size of the Republican surge. Both have reason to be cautious. For understandable reasons, neither is going to climb out on a limb; and both are basing their estimates on recent electoral history. If something is in the offing that exceeds the range of political oscillation in recent decades (including, notably, 1994), if we in American live in something other than normal times, they will miss the size of the surge.

It is good to remember that not a single Sovietologist predicted the collapse and dismemberment of the Soviet regime. History has a way of lulling us into sleep. What has been in recent times we tend to think will be in the foreseeable future. Then, every once in a while, suddenly, out of nowhere, a political earthquake arrives – and only in the aftermath do the experts notice that there were ample warning signs.

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Two weeks from today, we will know most of the results of the 2010 Midterm Elections. A lot can happen in two weeks, but there does seem to be a trend developing…

The New York Times described this movie as presenting “a blood-curdling, nightmarish picture of monstrous disorder in a public school.”

Variety said the film displays a moral rage at the “pattern of society acceptance of things as they are because no one troubles to devise a better way.”

Critics across the country agree that few movies have been so ground-breaking and controversial.

There is no question that “Blackboard Jungle” was one of the most important movies of the 1950s….what’s that? You thought I was talking about “Waiting for Superman?”  Oh.

I guess I should have been more clear.  After all, it’s difficult to keep track of all the Hollywood movies that depict the lousy state of America’s public education system.  Let’s see, there’s “Blackboard Jungle” (1955), “Up the Down Staircase” (1967), “Stand and Deliver” (1988), “Lean on Me” (1989), “Dangerous Minds” (1995)…and those are just the memorable ones.   There’ve been scads of films and TV shows over the past four or five decades with the same theme.  “Waiting for Superman” (2010) is just the latest installment.

And that, dear reader, is the point.  Americans have been talking about the need to fix our public schools for decades.  There have been movies, documentaries, books, newspaper stories, panel discussions, academic studies, and presidential speeches all pointing to the problem within America’s public school system.

And yet here we are – still talking.

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From The Hill:

A House Democratic lawmaker said late last week that he’d heard Nancy Pelosi wouldn’t seek another term as Speaker.

Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) said that not only would he not back Pelosi (D-Calif.) for Speaker again, but also that he’d heard she would not seek another term in that position.

“From what we’re hearing, she’s probably not going to run for Speaker again,” McIntyre told WWAY-TV in North Carolina. “And if she does, I’m confident she’s going to have opposition, and I look forward to supporting that opposition.”

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The contractual mortgage screw-up by the banks gives us a great way to speed up the recovery and reclaim what was lost in the the Great Bank Heist of 2008.

If you haven’t been paying attention to the MERS violations, you’ll need to read up to understand this idea…

But essentially, the chain of title on almost all the foreclosures going on in the mortgage market are in jeopardy: lawsuits as far as the eye can see; title companies unwilling to insure title; squatters; banks suspending all ongoing foreclosures.

It’s a frigging mess.

Meanwhile, ever since Rick Santelli launched the Tea Party on CNBC, we’ve been split down the middle class between those people who bought too big a house and are now desperately underwater–and those people who played by the rules.  We all have friends in both groups.

Over at oligarch central (the Fed), Bernacke is suggesting that to kick start the economy we need more inflation.  After all, the mortgages behind all the toxic assets they bought aren’t worth squat if home prices fall and people stop making payments.

I have a Tea Party solution…. and it is one Obama either gets behind or is exposed once-and-for-all as a Wall Street Stooge; his own left flank will desert him if he fights it.   It’s radical, and there will be howls from the Wall Street crowd, but to Main Street Republicans this could be a silver bullet.

The incoming Republican House should draft legislation, making it clear to the Credit Reporting Agencies that MERS Violations are valid grounds for removal of a foreclosure from credit reports under the Fair Credit Reporting Act.  If title companies aren’t willing to insure title, then Credit Reporting Agencies shouldn’t accept the validity of the foreclosures either.

The goal here is to encourage those underwater on their mortgages to mail in the keys, accept the foreclosure, stop squatting, without the ding to their credit – so they can buy a cheaper house later.

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Over 35 counties in Illinois missed the deadline to mail military ballots to our soldiers defending America. But in Chicago, county election officials have taken special steps to ensure that no inmates at the Cook County Jail are unable to cast a ballot.

The Chicago Board of Elections hand delivers ballots to the jail. They don’t even wait for the inmates to apply – they bring the applications with the ballots! Over 2,600 inmates have cast ballots so far – strikingly similiar to the 2,600 soldiers who will likely not recieve a ballot for the Nov 2 election.

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Sen. Barbara Boxer’s Capitol Hill staff is stonewalling a request by military mother Beverly Perlson for a copy of a reported diplomatic letter provided by the California Democrat to the leftwing group Code Pink/Global Exchange in support of the delivery of $600,000 in cash and aid to the “other side” in Fallujah, Iraq in late 2004.

Perlson, whose son has served four tours in the war on terror, is founder of the pro-troops group The Band of Mothers.

After initially telling Perlson the letter could not be found, Boxer’s staff has given Perlson the run around. Since she first made her request by telephone last week, Perlson says she has been passed from one staffer who, after failing to return several phone calls, referred her to another staffer who has not returned repeated phone messages. The receptionist refuses to give an e-mail address to Perlson so she can send her request in writing.

The stonewalling by Boxer’s office is in stark contrast to California Rep. Henry Waxman’s office which promptly provided Perlson a copy of a similar letter by Waxman.

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On October 17, 2010, Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky and her Republican challenger, Joel Pollak, faced off before a largely Jewish audience in Chicago to address Israel-specific foreign policy issues.  After the forum was over, we attempted to ask both candidates a number of questions unrelated to, and indirectly raised during the Candidates’ Forum.  While Mr. Pollak was more than willing to answer our questions, Representative Schakowsky refused to comment.

Fixing Washington, or more correctly, fixing the government for which about half of us pay and for which all of us are heavily in debt, does not require a political messiah, nor does it require a revolution.  What it requires simply is common sense and the steadfast will to apply it.  A substantial majority of Americans feel we are on the wrong course and they are correct.

So here are some ideas for changing course.  We are not economists or, as economists enjoy referring to themselves, purveyors of the dismal science, but we do know, as do most Americans, that the country in so many interlocking ways is on a downhill slope and if our politicians continue to put themselves before country, the slope will become a spiral.  The prospects for a sound and healthy future for America are eroding in inverse proportion to the wasteful, runaway spending, burgeoning growth in government and the escalation in the nation’s debt and deficits.

It seems that most everyone in the country knows that except, apparently, the people we send to Washington to represent us and the legions of staff they hire to do their bidding.  Instead of tackling systemic problems they nanny us, making choices for us as important as our health care and as trivial as our light bulbs or our toilet tissue.  We have to begin changing course now if we are to avoid forfeiting the American Dream, American leadership in the world and a secure future for our progeny.   So let’s begin to get serious.  To start the discussion, we would propose the following reforms.  They are dealt with in broad strokes.  We do not have legions of research staff and so we acknowledge that our proposals will need further refining and definition.

1. Establish a Permanent Bipartisan Commission on Debt and Deficit Reduction to identify annually those areas within the federal bureaucracy where, because of redundancy with other federal agencies, alleviation of prior need or general ineffectiveness, costs can be reduced or eliminated.  Each year the Commission would make specific recommendations to Congress for the elimination or reduction of such costs and Congress should, then, vote by roll call “yea” or “nay” on the recommendations.  Every year every member of Congress would vote for or against well-reasoned reductions in spending.  Everyone agrees that there is waste in every federal budget. Such waste invariably is built into subsequent budgets and therefore compounds year after year. Our proposal would require that such waste be identified and that Congress by roll call vote be required to vote up or down every year on its elimination.

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Today, in 1781, Lord Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown.

Californians have become increasingly concerned that public employee pension costs may be a future burden on taxpayers.  However, due to the complex world of actuarial mathematics and lack of accounting standards, most financial geniuses could not give you a straight answer about the costs.  The Government Accounting Standards Board (“GASB”), a group of “uber” accountants, is about to make pension costs a frightening surprise.

California’s irresponsible politicians just approved an $86 billion State Budget of smoke and mirrors that pushes approximately $10 billion of their $20 billion deficit to next the next administration in January.  The budget fancifully estimates the current $3.8 billion cost of funding state pensions will decline.  GASB’s adoption of new accounting rules next year will actually more than triple the annual cost of funding California state pensions to $12.5 billion!

Private Sector pension plans eliminated creative accounting rules still practiced by Public Sector pension plans 15 years ago.  Accounting rules mandate Corporations providing employee pensions fund the expected lifetime cost of the pension over the number of years the employee will continue to work.  The Private Sector concept is that the money will be “in the bank” when the employee retires, so that the pension benefits are paid in full.  Public Sector pension plans have “assumed” the government is perpetual and there is no need to put enough money “in the bank” each year the Public Sector employee actually continues working before he or she retires and collects a lifetime pension benefit.  Instead, actuaries have allowed the Public Sector pension plans to operate as if every person working in government will continue working for the next 30 years.

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We attended the 3rd candidates’ forum between Democrat Congresswoman, Jan Schakowsky, and her Republican Challenger, Joel Pollak, in their hotly contested race for Illinois’ 9th district.

There is a lot of content to process, but in the meantime, we bring you these two preview clips.

In the first clip, we ask Representative Schakowsky about recent claims on NRO that she has been an active Socialist.

Yet as I document in detail in Radical-in-Chief, the Midwest Academy’s leadership, including Jan Schakowsky, really was socialist. [emphasis added]

In the second clip, we ask Congresswoman Schakowsky if she thinks CodePink should be investigated for its role in the Hamas Flotilla.

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At this point, it is understandable that the reaction of the Tea Party Movement – and most Americans  - to ANY legislation coming out of THIS Congress would be not just “No,” but “Heck No” (pardon my French.)

But despite the reams of alleged “reporting” you’ve seen, the Tea Party Movement has for the most part NOT weighed in on Internet legislation – neither the ever-so-brief offer of Congressman Henry Waxman’s bill specifically nor any possible law generally.

Not that the media know anything about this.  In order to find out what the less government, pro-freedom Tea Partiers are thinking on Internet legislation, the Jurassic Press are asking and quoting – Media Marxists:

Tea party support for such an effort would be a reversal from the role the movement played in lawmakers’ attempt to advance a measure last month.

Indeed, “the tea party made it possible for Republicans to opt out of supporting Waxman’s bill with no political ramifications and appear as champions to their base,” said Sascha Meinrath, director of the Open Technology Initiative at the New America Foundation.

“I can see why the Republicans would have been resistant to signing on this in a tea-party-infused environment,” said Matt Wood, associate director for the Media Access Project.

Because these people are in constant contact with the Tea Party movers and shakers, and are thusly well equipped to speak for them on matters of Web legislative policy.

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From Election Law Center:

Election Law Center has learned about some strange things happening in Illinois when it comes to military and overseas ballots. Because of events in Chicago, overseas and military voter ballots will have election judges “recreating” their ballots before they are fed into the tabulating machines.

In Illinois, military and overseas voters can ask for either a paper ballot or a ballot sent by email. Ballots sent by email must be reprinted by the voter on the voter’s printer and send back.

In most counties the electronic choice is made by about a quarter of voters. Three quarters want good old fashioned paper. The highest rates of choosing electronic is in Champaign County and Lake County – which is about 30 percent.

There is one place, however, that is strangely off the scale: Chicago. Where else?

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Last week, the Veterans of Foreign War came under scrutiny because their lobbying arm, the VFW PAC, had endorsed a number of candidates without a track record of supporting the military over actual veterans and those who have demonstrated they would be advocates for veterans. Highlights incude Democrat Ron Klein, who is running against Republican challenger Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Allen West Florida 22^nd Congressional District in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District and Senator Barbara Boxer over Carly Fiorina for Senate in California. As I pointed out at Blackfive, this is not the first year that the VFW endorsements have angered its membership. This time, when these endorsements were called into question, the VFW-PAC doubled down.

Today we learn, in what is a victory for veterans and those who support them, the Veterans of Foreign Wars commander-in-chief has moved to disband the VFW PAC over these endorsements:

Talk about arrogance. Even in the face of a Judicial Watch investigation spotlighting Nancy Pelosi’s abuse of military air craft, the House Speaker shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, Speaker Pelosi may have set a frequent flyer record for taxpayer-financed luxury jet travel.

We recently obtained new documents from the United States Air Force detailing Speaker Pelosi’s use of United States Air Force aircraft between March 2009 and June 2010. And they pretty much tell the same, outrageous story as previous documents we’ve uncovered and released.

Here are the highlights from the newest batch of documents, which we obtained pursuant to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed on January 25, 2009:

•Pelosi used the Air Force aircraft for a total of 85 trips, covering 206,264 miles, from March 2, 2009 through June 7, 2010. Pelosi, her guests and Air Force personnel logged a total of 428.6 hours on these flights.
•Members of Pelosi’s family were guests on at least two flights. On June 20, 2009, Speaker Pelosi’s daughter, son-in-law and two grandsons joined a flight from Andrews Air Force Base to San Francisco International Air Port. That flight included $143 in on-flight expenses for food and other items. On July 2, 2010, Pelosi took her grandson on a flight from Andrews Air Force Base to Travis Air Force Base in Fairfield, California, which is northeast of San Francisco.

According to previous documents uncovered by Judicial Watch, the Speaker’s military travel cost the United States Air Force $2,100,744.59 over a two-year period — $101,429.14 of which was for in-flight expenses, including food and alcohol. Seriously, review these documents for yourself and you can see that Nancy Pelosi repeatedly turned indispensible Air Force aircraft into congressional party planes.

For example, purchases for one Pelosi-led congressional delegation traveling from Washington, DC, through Tel Aviv, Israel to Baghdad, Iraq May 15-20, 2008, included: Johnny Walker Red scotch, Grey Goose vodka, E&J brandy, Bailey’s Irish Crème, Maker’s Mark whiskey, Courvoisier cognac, Bacardi Light rum, Jim Beam whiskey, Beefeater gin, Dewar’s scotch, Bombay Sapphire gin, Jack Daniels whiskey, Corona beer and several bottles of wine.

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It should be noted that the so-called “peace activists” at the Code Pink organization are anything but peace activists. These anti-American radicals and Marxists supported the mass murderer Saddam Hussein who ran one of the most brutal regimes in the 20th century. Code Pink activists currently support the illegitimate Iranian regime, the Marxist Chavez regime in Venezuela and have even met with Taliban Islamists.

“Code Pink Kills American Troops Giving Money to Terrorists” (Target of Opportunity photo)

On November 22, 2004, the socialist anti-American group Code Pink sent out a plea to supporters to help send assistance to the “refugees” from Fallujah, Iraq.

Today, as CODEPINK was busily preparing a year-end humanitarian mission to Iraq, we received an urgent message. It was from our dear friend Dahr Jamail, an amazing American independent journalist who has been risking his life to get the true story of Fallujah to the American public:

“I have just come from a refugee camp in Baghdad with families from Fallujah. The suffering is beyond description. It’s worse than anything you’ve read or anything I’ve written so far.

This is a humanitarian crisis. They need medicines for their camp and the other camps immediately. We have an organization set up of doctors who can distribute the medicines and supplies. BUT WE NEED THEM NOW! THIS CANNOT WAIT!”
Solidarity,
Dahr

The next day, on November 23, 2004, Code Pink announced that they had raised nearly $20,000 in one day for “refugess” from Fallujah.

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To hear the Obama administration tell it, there are few things worse than anonymous political activity. Just recently, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told the Christian Science Monitor:

The untold story of 2010 is not the “tea party” or not the health-care bill, or a number of these issues. It is the amount of money that is flowing in districts around the country and particularly the amount of anonymous money….

I haven’t been any place where there aren’t dozens of ads now being run and nobody knows who is behind them…I am used to a political system where people engage in battles and you know who brought them to the dance.

But is anonymous political speech really that new – or that bad?

Indeed, anonymous political speech isn’t just a great American tradition. It helped create the United States of America. The Federalist Papers, the series of essays that influenced the adoption of the Constitution, were published under the pseudonym “Publius” (in reality James Madison, Alexander Hamilton, and John Jay). The anti-Constitution position was in turn articulated by “the Federal Farmer,” whose identity remains a mystery.

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